The PGA Tour heads to TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open. Here's a quick breakdown of players who fit the course, players trending up, and some picks that intrigue prior to the start of the tournament.
COURSE FIT:
Players who are expected to see some shots gained based on course fit. Player and aspects of their game that benefit from the course.
Collin Morikawa - approach game & accuracy off the tee
Tom Kim - approach game & accuracy off the tee
Aaron Rai - accuracy off the tee, hindered slightly by lack of distance off the tee
Russell Henley - accuracy off the tee, slight hindrance in driving distance but offset with increase in approach game.
Jon Rahm - moderate increase with his distance off the tee, small increases from accuracy off the tee, approach game, & short game
Scottie Scheffler - steady increases across the board; small increases in short game & approach, moderate increases in accuracy & distance off the tee.
PLAYERS TRENDING UP:
Players who are playing above tour & personal career baselines.
Justin Rose - coming off a win at Pebble Beach, Rose is playing more than a stroke better than his career baseline over his last 20 rounds.
Joel Dahman - a top 20, a top 20, & 2 top 5's over his last 5 tournaments; he is playing more than a stroke better than his career baseline.
Collin Morikawa - Morikawa's last 5 tournaments: Top 30, Top 15, 6th, 2nd, & 3rd. Morikawa is playing more than a stroke better than his career baseline over his last 20 rounds.
BETS:
I'm not playing all of these. These are all showing good value prior to the start of the tournament. Make sure to note of unit risks for each bet.
1st Round Leader (.1 unit):
Rory McIlroy (+1750)
Top 5 (.1 unit):
Brian Harman (+1400)
Brendan Steele (+1750)
Russell Henley (+1600)
Top 10 (.25 unit):
Jhonattan Vegas (+1400)
Brendan Steele (+850)
Scottie Scheffler (+145)
Top 20 (1 unit):
Jhonattan Vegas (+525)
Brendan Steele (+325)
Cameron Young (+125)
Brian Harman (+250)
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