It's the biggest sporting event every year. An estimated $16 billion is expected to be wagered on Super Bowl LVII between the Chiefs and the Eagles. The line is currently Eagles -1.5 with an over/under of 51.
I've got 13 plays currently locked in for the Super Bowl.
Eagles -1.5 (-110)
– The Eagles have been the most complete team this season. The game is won up front and the Eagles have a significant advantage up front on both sides of the football. According to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles have 10 pt grade advantage in Pass Block, 4 pt grade advantage in Run Block, 5 pt grade advantage in Run Defense, & 14 pt grade advantage in Pass Rush. I have to lay the points with Philly.
Under 51 (-110)
– This total is over the key number of 49. There have been 13 totals of 50.5 or higher in Super Bowls. In those 13 games, the under is 9-4. I don’t think this will be a dud of a game like the Patriots/Rams in Super Bowl LIII. But these defenses will come prepared and will eliminate big plays. You also have to consider the referees calling the game. Carl Cheffers and his crew have called 12 playoff games. The under is 11-1. I hate taking the under in championship games, but I am taking the under in this one.
Largest Lead of the Game u14.5 (-125)
– You want to know how many times either of these teams were down by more than 14 during the year? It’s zero. In a big game like this, with defenses expected to show up, I don’t see either team getting up or falling behind by more than two scores.
Longest Touchdown Scored u39.5 Yards (-115)
– As I mentioned before, both of these defenses are going to eliminate the big plays. For either offense to score, they’re going to have to put together drives to get in the end zone. Longest touchdown under 39.5 yards.
Team to obtain most first downs – Chiefs (+100)
– I’ve got Philly winning. So with KC going to be behind, I expect them to be airing it out during the game and picking up multiple first downs to attempt to come from behind.
Will Opening Kickoff to Be a Touchback? – No (+150)
– Kickers in the NFL have been improving on kicking the ball higher in the air and landing it on the goal line forcing returners to attempt a return. Not to mention, adrenaline will be high to start the game which will increase the likelihood of the returner taking the opening kickoff out of the end zone if it does go into the end zone. At +150, this is really good value that there will be a return on the opening kickoff.
Team to win the Coin Toss – Chiefs (+100)
– The team to win the coin toss has lost the Super Bowl in 8 straight. I got Philly to win, assuming this trend sticks true means the Chiefs win the coin toss.
Jersey Number of 1st TD Scorer – Over 11.5 (+110)
– Between these two teams, they have scored the first TD a combined 25 times this year. 16 of the 25 (8 of 12 for KC & 8 of 13 for PHI) was scored by someone with a jersey number higher than 11.5. With players like Travis Kelce, Miles Sanders, Dalton Schultz, & Dallas Goedert being prime First TD scorers, I’ll take the jersey number over 11.5.
Isiah Pacheco o47.5 Rush Yards (-115)
– Pacheco has gone over this line in 8 of his last 10. With the rest of the Chiefs’ backfield being banged up, the Chiefs will rely on Pacheco to carry most of the load with their modified run game. I think Pacheco will cruise past this line.
Isiah Pacheco o68.5 Rush & Rec Yards (-115)
– Pacheco has gone over in 8 of his last 10. Same as I mentioned above. Add in that Pacheco will also catch some check-down passes. I wouldn’t be shocked if Pacheco total yards gets close to 100 yards.
Patrick Mahomes u4.5 Rush Attempts (-170)
– Mahomes has stayed under this line in 9 of his last 10. Mahomes will be scrambling in this game with the Eagles pass rush coming after him. But with that bummed ankle, I think Mahomes will either try to find a receiver or throw it away instead of tucking it and running.
Kadarius Toney u27.5 Rec Yards (-115)
– Toney has gone under this line in 7 of his last 10. With all the weapons on that Kansas City offense, Toney is not a primary target. With this stout Philly defense, I’m projecting Toney to come short of 20 REC Yds.
Jalen Hurts u240.5 Pass Yards (-115)
– Hurts has gone under this line in 7 of his last 10. Hurts isn’t the QB to air it out. This Eagles offense is methodical, especially when playing ahead which they do a lot. If the Eagles get up in this game, the Eagles will suffocate the life out of this game to keep Mahomes on the sideline.
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