Full breakdown with picks for this weekend's NFL Divisional Round. Picks backed by profitable trends and data driven predictive model.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9)
The Chiefs Moneyline was part of my Favorites to Roll ML Parlay I posted earlier this week. I lean Chiefs -9 just because I still don’t believe in this Jaguars team, not an official play. I will put the Chiefs in my teaser play below. The Jaguars will not even come close in this game if Trevor Lawrence repeats the same type of game he had against the Chargers. With road dogs facing a 1 seed in the Divisional Round being 24-8-1 ATS, it’s hard to lay this big of number with the Chiefs. The total of 53 screams “TRAP!” to me. This game could be 35-14 and the Jaguars score a garbage time TD. Staying away from the total. The over is 5-3-1 in between the two teams in Divisional Rounds. But with totals at 53 or higher, it’s 2-2. Staying away from the total.
Props:
Isiah Pacheco (KC) o61.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115) – over in 8 of his last 10, averaging 76 rushing & receiving yards over the last 10 games.
Jerick McKinnon (KC) u24.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – under in 8 of last 10, averaging 17 rush yards a game over the last 10
Kadarius Toney (KC) u31.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – under in 8 of last 10, averaging 20 receiving yards a game over the last 10.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
I’m playing the Giants in this game at +7.5. As I mention above, road dogs facing a 1 seed in the Divisional Round being 24-8-1 ATS. But when you narrow that down to also include division opponents, the underdogs are 4-0 ATS. The Giants are playing good football in utilizing Daniel Jones’s running ability to force 11on11 football. I lean Eagles to win, but I think the Giants will give them a fight and cover. I’ll lay the points with the Giants. My model shows 61% probability in favor of the Giants ATS. The Giants are also the other side of my teaser. With the teaser making this game up to Giants +13.5, I absolutely love it.
Props:
DeVonta Smith (PHI) o60.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – Gave this out earlier this week and it’s already gone up to 64.5. Smith has gone over this number in 7 of last 10, including 4 straight, and 3 of the last 4 against the Giants. The Giants are rated 28th in the NFL in coverage according to ProFootballFocus. With Jalen Hurts returning from injury, I like DeVonta to rack up some receiving yards.
AJ Brown (PHI) o25.5 Longest Reception (-110) – over in 8 of his last 10, averaging 39.4 yards as his longest completion over the last 10.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
I’m laying the points with the Bengals. 2 seeds when facing 3 seeds are 6-10 ATS. The Bengals are the hottest team in the league. We’ve seen Josh Allen have trouble taking care of the football. Playing against a team with Joey B under center, you can’t give the ball way. I think the Bills will win, as I pointed out in my Favorites to Roll ML Parlay, I posted earlier this week. But this number is too big to lay with Buffalo in my opinion. My model shows 71% probability with the Bengals ATS. The over at 48.5 is also a play. The over is 12-6 in Divisional Round matchups between the 2 & 3 seeds. I think this could be a shootout. 27-24 game and this cashes which I see at least one team, if not both, getting to 30 points.
Props:
Devin Singletary (BUF) o37.5 Rush Yards (-110) – over in 8 of his last 10, averaging 54 a game over the last 10.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (-4)
As I mentioned in my early bets post earlier this week: San Francisco is the best team in the NFL right now despite having Mr. Irrelevant at QB. Dallas is inflated following Monday night's win over Tom Brady on the road. I think Dak Prescott, coming off the best game of his career, will struggle with the 49ers secondary. I like this number for San Francisco. I'm laying the points the 49ers.
Props:
Elijah Mitchell (SF) o26.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – over in 8 of his last 10, averaging almost 84 a game over his last 10.
Tony Pollard (DAL) o70.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115) – over in 7 of his last 10, averaging 99 a game over the last 10.
RECAP
Giants +7.5 (-110)
Teaser: Giants +13.5 & Chiefs -3 (-115)
Bengals +5.5 (-105)
Bengals/Bills o 49 (-110)
49ers -4 (-115)
Player Props:
Isiah Pacheco (KC) o61.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)
Jerick McKinnon (KC) u24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Kadarius Toney (KC) u31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
DeVonta Smith (PHI) o60.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
AJ Brown (PHI) o25.5 Longest Reception (-110)
Devin Singletary (BUF) o37.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Elijah Mitchell (SF) o26.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Tony Pollard (DAL) o70.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)
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