Early preview and picks for NFL Championship Weekend.
49ers vs. Eagles (-2.5) - o/u46.5
I said it last week and I'll echo it again this week, the 49ers are the best team in the NFL from top to bottom. No longer "Mr. Irrelevant" Brock Purdy is surrounded by weapons allowing the rookie to have success not having to force plays. The Eagles are also a great team and have had an amazing year, but I'm backing Brock Purdy to be the first rookie QB to ever win the Super Bowl. In order for that to come true, San Francisco has to beat Philadelphia. My predictive model makes this 64% probability in favor of the 49ers. I'm pushing the points to the side and taking the 49ers ML.
For the total, I immediately lean over. Both of these offenses can put big numbers up on the scoreboard. The over is 12-5-2 in NFC Championships, 10-2 in games with totals above 42.5. However, I'm on the opposite side here. I am taking the under at 46.5. The over is 20-17 between the two teams this year; however, when you look at totals of 43.5 and above that drops to 9-11. If you go one step further and look at totals of 45 and above it drops even further to 6-9. My model shows 56.3% probability in the under. Despite the talented offenses, I think the defenses show up just enough to keep this game under.
Picks: 49ers ML (+125); u46.5 (-110)
Bengals (-1) vs Chiefs - o/u47
The Chiefs are underdogs at home? Do the books not realize that Patrick Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog? However, the NFL media's Superman is facing his kryptonite in Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Burrow is 8-3 ATS as a road favorite and 3-0 straight up against the Chiefs. Unless this is the first time all season you're tuning into the NFL, you know Mahomes is hobbled with an ankle injury. This will limit his biggest strength which is expanding plays and keeping them alive. I'm taking the Bengals to go into Arrowhead and make a repeat trip to the Super Bowl.
Taking the under in a game like this is like telling your Mema you don't like her sweet tea and fried chicken. The total in the 3 previous matchups between the two teams: 65, 51, & 51. It is going to be in the low 20s in Kansas City on Sunday but I don't see that slowing down these two high powered offenses. Give me the over.
Picks: o47 (-110); Bengals ML (-110)
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