Player props for NFL Championship weekend from data driven projections.
49ers @ Eagles:
AJ Brown o26.5 Longest Reception (-115) - Brown has gone over this number in 7 of his last 10 and 6 of his last 7, averaging 37.5 as his longest reception over the last 10 games. With a lot of focus being on DeVonta Smith & Dallas Goedert, the Eagles will need to rely on AJ Brown for an explosive play against this 49ers defense. I'm projecting him to follow in this trend and have at least one explosive play of 30+ yards.
Brock Purdy u8.5 Rush Yards (-120) - Purdy has gone under this number in 9 of his last 10 with the only exception being against Seattle in the Wild Card Round. The rookie is not a scrambler and has accepted his role in this plug & play offense for the 49ers. Purdy will stay within himself and not try to force anything with his legs.
Brock Purdy u31.5 Pass Attempts (-105) - Purdy has gone under this number in 8 of his last 10, averaging 24 pass attempts. The 49ers offense relies on remaining a balanced offense and getting the ball into their playmakers in McCaffrey, Deebo, & Pacheco. The kid can ball and is taking the league by storm. But this number is inflated in my opinion. I'm projecting Purdy's pass attempts to be in the mid-high 20's, but I don't see him throwing the ball 30+ times.
Bengals @ Chiefs:
Samaje Perine o17.5 Rush Yards (-120) - Perine has gone over this number in 8 of his last 10, averaging 35 rush yards a game over that span. The two times he failed to hit that number was against Baltimore and New England, two of the top 5 teams in the league in Rush Yards Allowed per Attempt. Especially if this game turns into a shootout, which I believe it can, the Chiefs defense will be pass first focus which will allow Perine to gain some rush yards. I'm projecting Perine to easily cover this number and possibly double it.
Joe Mixon o22.5 Receiving Yards (-115) - Mixon has gone over this number in 7 of his last 10, averaging 33 receiving yards a game over that stretch. Mixon will be a prime check down target for Burrow in the passing game. I'm projecting Mixon to stay in line with his last 10 average of around 33 receiving yards.
Joe Mixon o11.5 Longest Reception (-120) - Mixon has gone over this line in 7 of his last 10, averaging 18 yards longest reception during that 10 game stretch. Analysis for this pick is the same as above. All it takes is Mixon to catch a check down in space, make a man miss, and get some yards. I'm projecting him to have one 18-20 yard reception which would cover this number.
Kadarius Toney u35.5 Receiving Yards (-115) - Toney has failed to hit this number in 7 of his last 10, one of those was last week when he got it by the hook. He's averaged 20 receiving yards a game over his last 10 and this number is skewed by 57 in a game against Jacksonville in November and 71 against Denver in January. I don't think he comes close to this number.
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