IT'S OPENING DAY BABY!! We've got 15 MLB baseball games today. 8 picks from data driven predictive model.
Braves F5 ML (-220)
The Atlanta Braves are primed to take down the Washington Nationals in their season-opening clash, thanks to their superior lineup and the Nationals' shaky starting pitcher.
Baseball fans, the wait is finally over! Opening day has arrived, and we're kicking things off with an exciting matchup between the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals. You might be wondering who's going to come out on top in this divisional showdown, and I'm here to tell you why the Braves are the squad you should be backing today.
First and foremost, let's talk lineups. The Braves have one of the most potent offenses in the National League, and they've got a history of making Nationals starter Patrick Corbin look like a batting practice pitcher. Last season, Corbin had a rough go against the Braves, posting an abysmal 0-3 record with a sky-high 9.42 ERA in four starts. To put it bluntly, the Braves have had Corbin's number, and I don't expect that to change in today's matchup.
On the other side of the mound, we've got Atlanta's Max Fried, who's been a steady presence in the Braves rotation. Fried had a solid 2022 campaign, recording a 14-7 record and a 2.48 ERA. In his three starts against the Nationals last season, he went 2-1 with a respectable 4.50 ERA and 14 strikeouts. While the Nationals' lineup isn't exactly a pushover, Fried has shown that he can handle their bats, and I anticipate he'll put up a strong performance today.
Now, let's dive into some stats to back up my Braves pick. Last season, the Braves ranked 4th in the NL in runs scored, while the Nationals came in at a less-than-impressive 12th place. Additionally, the Braves had the 5th best team OPS in the league, while the Nationals languished in 10th. It's clear that when it comes to offensive firepower, the Braves have a significant edge.
But what about pitching? Well, in 2022, the Braves' team ERA ranked 6th in the NL, while the Nationals were stuck in the middle of the pack at 8th. When you combine Atlanta's superior offense with their better pitching staff, it's not hard to see why the Braves are the favorites in today's game.
BetSaracen seems to agree with my assessment, as they've got the Braves listed as -240 moneyline favorites, with the Nationals sitting at +210 underdogs. The total for the game is set at 8, which might be worth considering if you think the Braves' bats will continue to light up Corbin like a Christmas tree.
Now, I'm not saying the Nationals have no chance in this game – it's baseball, and anything can happen on any given day. However, given the Braves' track record against Corbin and their overall stronger lineup, I expect them to come out on top in this season opener.
So, there you have it, folks. If you're looking to kick off your MLB betting season with a W, I'd recommend backing the Braves today. Just remember, there's no such thing as a "sure thing" in sports betting, but the numbers don't lie, and they're pointing to a Braves victory in this one.
Yankees F5 ML (-175)
The New York Yankees are primed to dominate the San Francisco Giants in their season opener clash, thanks to a powerhouse lineup and a dominating Gerrit Cole on the mound.
Baseball fans, get ready for a thrilling opening day matchup between the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants. As the action unfolds at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, there's no doubt that the Yankees are ready to flex their muscles and show the Giants who's boss. With a stacked lineup and the ever-impressive Gerrit Cole leading the charge, it's hard not to envision the Yanks taking home the W.
The Yankees are currently sitting pretty as the -190 moneyline favorites at BetSaracen, with the Giants lagging behind as the +160 underdogs. The run total for this epic duel is set at 7.5, but we're feeling confident that the Yankees will be the ones doing most of the heavy lifting.
First and foremost, let's talk about the man of the hour: Gerrit Cole. This seasoned ace finished the 2022 season with a 13-8 record, pitching 200.2 innings and striking out a whopping 257 batters. Despite facing some challenges when the MLB cracked down on the use of sticky stuff on the mound, Cole quickly bounced back and showcased his undeniable skill.
Cole has faced the Giants eight times in his career since 2013, and he's managed to keep them at bay with fewer than three earned runs in five of those outings. That's the kind of performance we can expect from Cole as he takes on a Giants lineup that's in the midst of a rebuilding phase. With a weakened opponent, Cole is primed to shine on the mound and keep the Giants' bats quiet.
On the other side of the equation, we've got Logan Webb gearing up to face the Yankees for the first time in his career. Webb finished the 2022 season with a 15-9 record in 32 games started, boasting a career-best 2.90 ERA and 163 strikeouts in 192.1 innings. While these stats are nothing to scoff at, Webb faces a daunting task as he goes up against the Bronx Bombers.
The Yankees' lineup is a veritable who's who of baseball elite. With the reigning home run king, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, and Anthony Volpe in the mix, it's clear that the Yanks have the firepower to put up some serious runs. Webb's solid record is commendable, but taking on the Yankees' batting lineup is a whole different ballgame.
It's no secret that the Yankees are among the league's top contenders for the World Series title, while the Giants, well, not so much. Sure, Webb gives the Giants their best shot at success, but kicking off the season against the fearsome Yankees is an uphill battle, especially when pitchers are still finding their footing after spring training.
Taking all of this into account, it's hard not to see the Yankees walking away with a victory on opening day. With a superior lineup and a formidable presence on the mound, the Yanks are ready to make their mark and kick off the 2023 season with a bang.
So, grab your popcorn, place your bets, and get ready for a showdown that's sure to be a treat for baseball fans everywhere. As the Yankees and Giants clash on the field, there's no denying that the Bronx Bombers are ready to show their might and prove once again why they're a force to be reckoned with.
DET Tigers/TB Rays u7 (-125)
Tonight's MLB showdown between the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays is shaping up to be a pitcher's duel, with the total likely to stay under.
As the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays gear up for their opening clash, all signs point to a low-scoring affair, thanks in large part to the pitching prowess of Rays' Shane McClanahan. The young left-hander, who notched Cy Young Award-worthy numbers for most of 2022 (12-8, 2.54 ERA), is set to make his second consecutive Opening Day start after a late-season shoulder injury derailed his previous campaign. With his impressive track record against the Tigers (1-2, 2.95 ERA, and 17 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings), McClanahan is primed to keep the runs at bay.
The Rays' lineup hasn't seen much improvement from last year, with Brandon Lowe, who slugged 39 homers and 99 RBIs in 2021, managing just eight dingers and 25 RBIs in 65 games last season. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's dynamic young shortstop, Wander Franco, saw limited action with just 83 games under his belt, hitting six homers and 33 RBIs while batting .277. Injuries have kept Franco's legs from being a significant base-stealing threat, as he swiped just eight bags last year.
On the flip side, the Tigers' lineup remains mediocre at best, with the organization finishing the 2022 season at 66-96. Despite the recent changes in leadership under Scott Harris, previously an executive with the Chicago Cubs and the San Francisco Giants, Detroit is still a work in progress. The Tigers' roster features two-time Opening Day starter Matthew Boyd, who was non-tendered after the 2021 campaign due to flexor tendon surgery on his arm. Boyd made 10 relief appearances for the Seattle Mariners last year, going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA.
Eduardo Rodriguez, who posted a 5-5 record with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts last year, will get the Opening Day start for the second year in a row for the Tigers. The lefty's history against the Rays is less than stellar, with a 2-5 record and a 5.59 ERA in 14 career appearances, all starts. Rodriguez, however, remains unfazed by the pressure of pitching the opener, saying, "It's just another game, and I just focus on doing my job."
As for the Rays' pitching lineup, Josh Fleming, who struggled last season with a 2-5 record and a 6.43 ERA, will fill the fifth starter role in Tyler Glasnow's absence. Glasnow, a dominant force in 2019, is still nursing a left oblique strain after missing much of the 2021 and 2022 seasons following Tommy John surgery. A May season debut is likely for the hard-throwing righty, barring any setbacks. Fleming joins McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs as the third southpaw in the Rays' rotation.
Newcomer Zach Eflin essentially replaces Corey Kluber, who signed with the Boston Red Sox, and the rotation is rounded out by Drew Rasmussen. With a strong pitching lineup, the Rays will be looking to make the most of their home-field advantage, as the correlation between good home pitchers and games going under the total is well-documented in the world of sports betting.
As both the Rays and Tigers take the field tonight, bettors should keep a keen eye on the pitching performances and expect a low-scoring game. With McClanahan on the mound for Tampa Bay and a lackluster lineup from both teams, runs will likely be at a premium in this clash of American League foes. So, buckle up for a pitcher's duel and get ready for an intense, low-scoring battle under the bright lights of the MLB season opener.
PHI Phillies/TEX Rangers o6.5 (-110)
When the Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers kick off their MLB season, the anticipated pitching duel between Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom isn't going to stop this game from soaring over the total.
As baseball fans gear up for the season opener, all eyes are on the epic pitching matchup between the Phillies' Aaron Nola and the Rangers' new ace, Jacob deGrom. While both pitchers have earned their elite status, history suggests that games featuring either of these hurlers tend to go over the total, and today's clash in Arlington, Texas, is no exception.
Aaron Nola enters his sixth straight Opening Day start for the Phillies, cementing his place in team history alongside legends like Robin Roberts and Steve Carlton. Last season, Nola showcased his dominance with an 11-13 record and a 3.25 ERA over 32 starts. With the 30-year-old pitcher entering the final year of his five-year, $56.75 million deal, he's undoubtedly looking to make a statement on the mound.
On the flip side, the Rangers are rolling out their shiny new weapon in two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom. After signing a five-year, $185 million contract during the offseason, he's making his Texas debut and hoping to set the tone for the season. Despite dealing with injuries in recent years, deGrom still managed to post a 1.94 ERA and an average of 12 strikeouts per nine innings from 2018 to 2021.
Now, you might be thinking, "With two elite pitchers on the mound, how is this game going to go over the total?" Well, let's break down the numbers. When deGrom has faced the Phillies in the past, he's racked up a 9-1 record with a 2.18 ERA, 136 strikeouts, and 27 walks in 20 appearances. While those stats scream dominance, it's important to remember that both teams have undergone significant changes since those matchups.
The Rangers, who went 68-94 last season, have been in rebuilding mode, but they managed to sweep the Phillies in all four meetings last year, outscoring them 19-7. With a revamped roster and a renewed sense of optimism, Texas is more than capable of putting up runs against Nola and the Phillies' defense.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are coming off an 87-75 season, earning a wild-card spot and making their first World Series appearance since 2009. With a potent offense led by superstar Bryce Harper, Philadelphia has no problem scoring runs in bunches. Even with deGrom on the mound, the Phillies have the firepower to make this game a high-scoring affair.
Additionally, both pitchers are coming off a long offseason and might not be as sharp as they usually are. Nola and deGrom will undoubtedly be feeling the pressure of Opening Day, and it's not uncommon for even the best pitchers to have a shaky start to the season. With the total line set at 6.5, all it takes is a couple of early-game jitters for this game to surpass the over.
So, while the marquee pitching matchup between Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom is sure to attract plenty of attention, don't let it distract you from the high-scoring potential in today's game. As history has shown, games featuring these two aces have a tendency to go over the total, and with the offensive firepower on both teams, we're in for a thrilling, run-filled season opener in Arlington.
NY Mets F5 ML (-125)
The New York Mets, with their powerhouse lineup and ace Scherzer on the mound, are primed to conquer the Miami Marlins in a thrilling season opener.
Opening day is upon us, and the hype is real. The New York Mets, boasting the largest payroll in Major League Baseball at $375.3 million, are ready to face off against the lower-budget Miami Marlins, with a payroll of just $110.2 million. While this disparity in funds might not tell the whole story, it's hard to ignore the talent that money can buy.
Let's start with the Mets' starting pitcher, Max Scherzer. This guy is an absolute monster on the mound. With three Cy Young Awards under his belt and an impressive 15-5 record against the Marlins, it's no wonder he's making $43.3 million in 2023. Scherzer's experience and undeniable skill make him a force to be reckoned with, and the Marlins will undoubtedly have their work cut out for them.
Now, it's not all doom and gloom for the Marlins. They'll be sending out their own Cy Young Award winner, Sandy Alcantara, to the mound. Last year, Alcantara led the majors in innings pitched and completed six games – more than any other major league team. With a 14-9 record and a 2.28 ERA in 2022, Alcantara has the ability to keep this game close. There's no denying that Alcantara is talented, but can he outshine Scherzer in a battle of the aces?
The Mets' lineup is a force to be reckoned with. Despite losing two-time All-Star closer Edwin Diaz for the season due to a knee injury, they've managed to secure David Robertson, who has 157 career saves and a combined 2.40 ERA last year with the Chicago Cubs and Phillies. While Diaz's absence is undoubtedly a blow to the Mets' bullpen, Robertson is more than capable of stepping up to the plate, pun intended.
On the other hand, the Marlins have made some interesting moves recently. They've added second baseman Luis Arraez, who won a batting title last year for the Minnesota Twins with a .316 average, and revamped their bullpen with the additions of closer Matt Barnes and lefty A.J. Puk. These new additions show promise, but will they be enough to overcome the star-studded Mets lineup?
Defensively, the Marlins have some question marks. Middle infielder Jean Segura has moved to third base, and second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. has shifted to center field – both new positions for these players. This could lead to some defensive miscues and give the Mets opportunities to capitalize on any mistakes.
While Marlins general manager Kim Ng believes there's a lot of talent on the team, it's hard to argue against the Mets' sheer firepower. With a roster that includes Scherzer, their new closer Robertson, and an impressive lineup, the Mets look like the superior team on paper.
Of course, anything can happen in baseball, and Alcantara's presence on the mound makes the Marlins a legitimate threat. However, the Mets have the edge in this matchup, and fans should expect a thrilling game with plenty of action.
As the season kicks off, the Mets are ready to show the world what they're made of, and the Marlins will be their first test. While Alcantara might keep the game close, the Mets' superior lineup and Scherzer's electric pitching give them the advantage in this Opening Day showdown. So, buckle up, sports fans – it's going to be one wild ride!
MIN Twins ML (-155)
The Minnesota Twins are primed to kick off the 2023 MLB season with a bang, as they take down the Kansas City Royals in their intradivision clash.
With the MLB season underway, baseball fans and bettors alike are buzzing about the upcoming game between the Minnesota Twins and the Kansas City Royals. The Twins, boasting the return of star shortstop Carlos Correa and a potentially healthy Byron Buxton, are set to conquer the Royals and their mediocre lineup, led by the once-formidable Zack Greinke.
Now, I know what you're thinking: "Isn't Greinke supposed to be the headliner for the Royals?" Sure, the guy's had an illustrious career, but if we dive into the numbers, it's historically profitable to back the team facing Greinke. That's right, our beloved Twins are in prime position to capitalize on the Royals' fading ace.
The Twins' lineup is no joke, and with Correa back in the mix, they're looking more formidable than ever. Plus, if Buxton can stay healthy (fingers crossed), we're talking about a serious one-two punch. Combine that with a solid rotation featuring Kenta Maeda returning from Tommy John surgery and Tyler Mahle shaking off his shoulder issues, and you've got a recipe for success. Sure, Alex Kirilloff is starting the year on the IL, but the Twins have got depth with Joey Gallo and Donovan Solano at first base.
Meanwhile, the Royals are relying heavily on their young talent. Sure, Bobby Witt Jr. had an impressive showing with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, but can he keep up that momentum in the big leagues? MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino had solid rookie seasons, but will they avoid the dreaded sophomore slump? And let's not forget about Hunter Dozier's quest to find his swing again or Brady Singer's attempt to build on his remarkable improvement in 2022 – it's all far from certain.
As we dissect the stats, it's clear that the Twins have the edge in this matchup. Greinke's recent performances have been less than stellar, and the Twins' hitters are more than capable of exploiting his weaknesses. In addition, the Royals' lineup lacks the firepower to keep up with Minnesota's potent offense. And let's not forget that the Twins will be extra motivated to start the season strong, especially with the Cleveland Guardians reigning supreme in the AL Central.
But don't just take my word for it – let's get into the nitty-gritty. The Twins' offense ranked in the top half of the league last season, while the Royals languished near the bottom. Furthermore, Minnesota's pitching staff boasted a significantly better ERA than Kansas City's. And if you're into betting trends, the Twins have consistently outperformed the Royals in recent head-to-head matchups, making them a solid pick for savvy bettors.
So, as we gear up for this intradivision clash, it's essential to keep our eyes on the prize: the AL Central title. While the Twins and Royals may not be seeing as much of each other this year due to the new, more balanced schedule, an early spring series win could have major implications come fall. With both teams chasing the reigning division champion Guardians, every game counts – and the Twins are poised to make a statement right out of the gate.
It's clear that the Minnesota Twins have the upper hand in this matchup. From their star-studded lineup to their superior pitching staff, they're ready to take down the Kansas City Royals and their fading ace, Zack Greinke. So, if you're looking to make a smart pick for this game, look no further than the Twins – a team with the talent, motivation, and track record to start the 2023 MLB season with a W.
COL Rockies F5 ML (+180)
In tonight's MLB showdown between the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres, expect the underdog Rockies to come out swinging and snatch a victory from the hyped-up Padres.
As the 2023 MLB season kicks off, all eyes are on the San Diego Padres and their star-studded roster, featuring Fernando Tatis and newly-acquired Xander Bogaerts. The Padres are a powerhouse team with high expectations this year, but tonight, the Colorado Rockies will rise to the challenge and show the world what they're capable of. Here's why I'm backing the Rockies in their Opening Day matchup against the Padres.
First and foremost, let's address the elephant in the room: Blake Snell. The Padres' starting pitcher might have an impressive resume, but history has shown that it's profitable to bet against him (or "fade" him, as the cool kids say). Snell's performance can be inconsistent at times, and the Rockies' lineup may just have what it takes to exploit any weaknesses he brings to the mound tonight.
Speaking of the Rockies' lineup, their off-season moves have added depth and talent to an already solid foundation. The acquisition of Jurickson Profar and Mike Moustakas brings experience and power to the team, while the big free-agent signing of Kris Bryant last year adds a dangerous element to their offense. If Bryant can stay healthy in 2023, the Rockies have the potential to make some serious noise in the league.
On the mound for the Rockies, we'll see Germán Márquez making his third Opening Day start. While some may have expected Kyle Freeland to get the nod, Márquez has proven himself as a reliable and consistent pitcher who can handle high-pressure situations. Don't sleep on Márquez; he's got the stuff to keep the Padres' heavy hitters off balance and limit their scoring opportunities.
Another factor to consider is the unpredictable nature of Opening Day games. With emotions running high and players eager to make a strong impression, upsets have been known to happen on baseball's grandest stage. The Rockies, who are likely well aware of their underdog status, will be extra motivated to come out swinging and prove they can hang with the best of them, putting the Padres on their heels from the very start.
Now, let's talk some numbers. While the Padres may have had an impressive run last season, making it to the NLCS and winning their first playoff series since 1998, the Rockies are no strangers to adversity. With four straight losing seasons under their belt, this team has nothing to lose and everything to gain. A win against the Padres on Opening Day would be a massive statement for the Rockies and could set the tone for a successful 2023 campaign.
Lastly, let's not forget that baseball is a game of matchups, and the Rockies have a few secret weapons up their sleeves. Their roster features some talented lefty mashers who can capitalize on Snell's southpaw tendencies, and with Matt Carpenter making his Padres debut, we might just see the Rockies' lineup doing some serious damage.
While the San Diego Padres may be the talk of the town with their high expectations and star-studded lineup, the Colorado Rockies have the grit, determination, and talent to pull off an Opening Day upset. Don't be surprised when the Rockies rise to the occasion and leave the Padres wondering what went wrong. So, for all you betting enthusiasts out there, consider putting your money on the underdogs tonight—you might just be rewarded with a sweet payday.
ARI Diamondbacks/LA Dodgers o7 (-125)
Today's MLB Opening Day matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers is primed for a high-scoring affair, despite the presence of All-Star pitchers Zac Gallen and Julio Urías on the mound.
As the 2023 MLB season kicks off, all eyes are on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers as they face off in a matchup that has all the makings of a high-scoring showdown. With the over/under total set at 7.5, it might seem counterintuitive to bet the over with two All-Star pitchers like Zac Gallen and Julio Urías taking the hill. However, digging a little deeper into the stats and trends reveals that this game is ripe for an offensive explosion.
First, let's talk about the pitchers. Gallen had a phenomenal 2022 season, boasting a 12-4 record with a 2.54 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, even finishing fifth in Cy Young voting. On the other hand, Urías, who's starting Opening Day for the first time in his career, is no slouch either. But here's the catch: games in which either Gallen or Urías pitch have a history of going over the total. That's right, despite their impressive numbers, these two hurlers have a knack for being part of high-scoring games.
Now, let's dive into the offensive talent on display in this matchup. The Diamondbacks have an exciting young core led by Rookie of the Year candidate Corbin Carroll, along with the likes of Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, and newly-acquired catcher Gabriel Moreno. Not to mention, they still have established veterans like Ketel Marte and Christian Walker in the mix. With this blend of youth and experience, the D-backs are primed to put runs on the board.
As for the Dodgers, it's no secret that they've undergone some significant changes in the offseason. Gone are the Turners (Trea and Justin) and Cody Bellinger, but that doesn't mean their offense has taken a hit. The arrivals of J.D. Martinez, David Peralta, and Miguel Rojas, combined with the continued presence of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Max Muncy, make this lineup a force to be reckoned with. Expect the Dodgers to keep pace in the run department with their revamped roster.
Another factor to consider is the recent history between these two teams. In their last meeting on September 22, 2022, Gallen took the mound against the Dodgers, giving up just one run in eight innings while striking out 13. Despite Gallen's dominant performance, the game still saw a combined total of 10 runs scored, blowing past the over. With both teams making notable additions to their lineups during the offseason, this trend could very well continue.
Lastly, let's not forget the intangibles. This is Opening Day, and emotions will be running high. Both teams will be eager to start the season off on the right foot, and with the spotlight shining brightly on this matchup, it's not unreasonable to expect some fireworks at the plate.
To sum it up, while it may seem counterintuitive to bet the over with two All-Star pitchers on the mound, the stats, trends, and contextual factors all point towards a high-scoring affair between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. So, buckle up and get ready for a rollercoaster of runs, as today's game is shaping up to be a slugfest for the ages.
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