MLB Best Bets - 6/28/2023

Kyle Kennedy

Jun 28, 20232 min read

It's a good day to have a good day and cash some tickets. 6 picks for today's MLB slate. Odds according to BetSaracen.

MIN Twins/ATL Braves o8.5 (-170)

Kenta Maeda (MIN): 1-4, 6.86 ERA, .371 BABIP
Kolby Allard (ATL): making first appearance of the season. 7.29 ERA and 3.86 HR/9 in 2022, 5.41 ERA and 2.09 HR/9 in 2021.
Atlanta’s offense is scoring 7.62 runs per game, hitting .310 as a team, with a .603 SLG over the last 14 days.
Good weather in Atlanta shouldn’t hinder ball flight.

Blake Snell (SD): 3-0, 0.29 ERA, and 44.2% K rate in his last 5 starts.
Mitch Keller (PIT) has been solid with a 3.45 ERA. But the Pirates bullpen has been atrocious. The Pirates relievers have a 7.30 ERA and a 14.2% BB rate over the last 14 days.

Logan Webb (SF): 14 total innings in his last 2 starts. The Giants’ bullpen has been solid with a 2.60 ERA in the last 30 days.
Not official who the Blue Jays will start but it looks like it will be Trevor Richards. Richards is allowing 2.63 HR/9.
The Giants’ offense is scoring 6 runs per game over the last 14 days, 5.81 runs per game over the last month.

Joey Wentz (DET): 1-8, 6.72 ERA, 3.17 BABIP on the season. 0-3 with a 12.1% walk rate in his last 5 starts.
Texas offense has simmered down, but this is a good spot for them to bounce back.

Aaron Nola (PHI): 3.94 ERA over his last 5 starts. But he’s limiting opposing hitters to a .219 BABIP.
Drew Smyly (CHI): 3.97 ERA, 11.4% BB rate, and .292 BABIP over his last 5 starts.
Two good starters in this one. Their issues have been allowing home runs. Nola has allowed 1.13 HR/9 over his last 5 starts. Smyly has allowed 1.99 HR/9 over his last 9 starts. But with it being windy in Chicago, I think Wrigley will help both starting pitchers limit that.

Zach Eflin (TB): 9-3 with a 3.35 ERA on the season. Solid 4.6% walk rate.
Zach Davies (ARI): 1-4 with a 7.82 ERA and .370 BABIP in 8 starts on the season. In his last 5 starts he has a 9.00 ERA and has allowed a .395 BABIP.