The spread is currently at -5.5 with a total of 133.5 according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort. My model currently makes this Tennessee -6 and a total of 132 which is in line with the sportsbook. But I have to take the Razorbacks and the under in this game.
The Arkansas Razorbacks have seen a resurgence in their performance since the return of their star point guard Nick Smith Jr., who had been out of the lineup with a knee injury. Smith has been back for three games now and the Razorbacks have been on a scoring spree, putting up 84, 97, and 83 points against two of the best defensive teams in the conference, Florida and Alabama. This offensive success is due in part to their 7% higher Free Throw Attempt Rate on offense compared to the Volunteers, as well as their 2.8% higher True Shooting % and 2.9% higher effective FG%. On the defensive side, Arkansas has also been impressive, ranked 11th in the nation according to KenPom.
The Tennessee Volunteers, on the other hand, have been dealing with a few injuries of late and have had trouble finding their footing on the offensive end over the past month. If the Razorbacks can maintain their high level of play, they may be able to take advantage of the Volunteers’ struggles and stay within the spread.
Overall, the Arkansas Razorbacks are in a good position to stay within the -5.5 point spread in this matchup. Even if Tennessee wins the game, Arkansas should be able to keep up and cover the spread. The Razorbacks have shown that they are a tough team to beat, and they have the offensive and defensive capabilities to stay in the game and keep up with the Volunteers.
PROPS:
Ricky Council o11.5 Pts (-115) - over this line in 83% of games this year and 4 of last 5. Projections are showing him scoring 13.
Davonte Davis o10.5 Pts (-105) - over this line in 7 of last 10. Projections are showing him scoring 11.5.
Anthony Black u11.5 Pts (-130) - under this line in 5 of last 10. Projections are showing him scoring 9.25.
Olivier Nkamhoua o9.5 Pts (-130) - over this line in 2 of last 5 but projections are showing him to score 11.75 tonight.
Zakai Zeigler u2.5 3PTM (-200) - under this line in 2 of last 5 and 4 of last 10. Projections are showing him making 1.3 three-point shots.
Zakai Zeigler o2.5 REB (+115) - only gone over this mark in 1 of last 5 and 5 of last 10. But projections are showing him to gather 3.6 rebounds.
Davonte Davis o3.5 REB (-110) - over this line in 2 of last 5 and 4 of last 10. But projections are showing him to collect 5 rebounds.
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