Solid, very profitable 5-2 day yesterday. Full MLB slate today. Let's dig into it. Odds according to BetSaracen.
CIN Reds/BAL Orioles F5 u4.5 (-105)
We've got two really good starters in the matchup between Andrew Abbott (CIN) and Tyler Wells (BAL). Both starters are limiting opposing hitters to BABIP's under .200, .190 for Abbott and .191 for Wells. Wells has a 2.73 ERA over his last 5 starts. Abbott has a 1.14 ERA in his 4 starts this year. Yes, these offenses have been lighting up the scoreboard. And they may as the game goes into the later innings. But I would expect limited run scoring in the first 5 innings.
BOS Red Sox ML (-125)
This is a fade of Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has struggled more this season after a strong 2022. Alcantara is 2-6 and has a 5.08 ERA this season. He has a relatively low K rate at only 15.2%. It doesn't help him that the Marlins offense is struggling to score runs and is not slugging the ball with the 2nd lowest ISO in the MLB over the last 30 days.
MIL Brewers ML (+130)
I said yesterday that I don't trust the Mets bullpen, and they cost us from cashing a ticket. Well today I am fading them as they send out David Peterson. Peterson has been terrible this year. Peterson has a 8.08 ERA and is allowing a .404 BABIP. On the other side, Julio Teheran will take the mound for the Brewers. Teheran has a 1.53 ERA across 6 starts this season. Teheran has been strong in keeping runners off base paths. I think he can limit the Mets offense today.
MIN Twins/ATL Braves u8.5 (+110)
This matchup will face off two good pitchers in Joe Ryan and Bryce Elder. Both starters have low walk rates, 4.1% for Ryan and 6.7% for Elder. Ryan is limiting opposing hitters to a .214 BABIP over his last 5 starts. Elder is limiting opposing hitters to a .233 BABIP over his last 5 starts. The Braves offense has been on fire as of late, but I think Ryan can limit their offensive production today.
HOU Astros ML (-115)
Framber Valdez has been lights out for Houston. Valdez is allowing less than 1 HR/9, not allowing any in his last 5 starts, and has a 2.27 ERA on the season. Framber has given the Astros a total of 33 innings in his last 5 starts. He will be going up against Jordan Montgomery on the mound for the Cardinals. Montgomery has been solid in his own right. Montgomery has a 2.10 ERA over his last 5 starts. But I like the Astros to come away with a win in this one.
NYY Yankees ML (-140)
This is good value for the Yankees to be taking on the worst team in baseball. We have seen the diminished offense for the Yankees without Aaron Judge. But today they'll be taking on Paul Blackburn making his 6th start of the season. Blackburn is giving up a .382 BABIP on the season. On the flip side, Jhony Brito will make his 11th start of the season for the Yankees. The rookie has been decent this season having to endure the pressure of being a rookie pitcher at hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Today, they'll be in Oakland which is not as hitter friendly. I'll take the Yankees.
TB Rays/ARI D’backs u8.5 (-110)
Two good starters that will limit offenses in Taj Bradley (TB) and Zac Gallen (ARI). Bradley is a dominant strikeout pitcher, with a 34.5% K rate. Bradley has a 2.68 FIP on the season, that number drops to 2.13 over the last 30 days. On the other side, Zac Gallen has a 2.59 FIP on the season. I think this could be a lower scoring ballgame.
CIN Reds/BAL Orioles NRFI (-115)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) 3-1 (75%) overall, 2-0 (100%) in away games; allowing .214 AVG in the 1st inning this season.
Tyler Wells (BAL) 10-4 (71%) overall, 6-2 (75%) in home games. Allowing .196 AVG in the 1st inning this season.
MIN Twins/ATL Braves NRFI (-110)
Joe Ryan (MIN) 13-2 (87%) overall, 7-1 (88%) in away games; 30% K rate and no walks in 1st inning this season.
Bryce Elder (ATL) 13-2 (87%) overall, 8-1 (89%) in home games; allowing .163 AVG in 1st inning this season.
NYY Yankees/OAK Athletics NRFI (-125)
Jhony Brito (NYY) 6-4 (60%) overall, 2-3 (40%) in away games.
Paul Blackburn (OAK) 4-1 (80%) overall, 1-1 (50%) in home games; 23% K rate in the 1st inning this season.
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