Limited MLB slate today. Let's have a good Monday and bounce back from a mediocre weekend. Odds according to BetSaracen.
CIN Reds/BAL Orioles o9.5 (-120)
This is the play of the day. I have already put 2u on this one. We’ve got two starters that have high ERA’s and have shown vulnerability to give up home runs, a Cincinnati offense that is one of the hottest in baseball, an Orioles’ lineup that is slugging at a high rate as of late, and weather than is projected for a serious boost of home runs and run scoring.
Let's look at the starters in this matchup. Brandon Williamson will take the mound for the Reds. Williamson has a 5.40 ERA, only a 17% K rate, and is allowing 2 home runs per 9 innings on this season. In his last 5 starts, he has a 6.08 ERA and is allowing more over 2 HR/9. On the other side, Cole Irvin has only pitched a total of 23 1/3 innings across 5 starts (7 total appearances) this season. Irvin has a 7.71 ERA, is allowing a .366 BABIP, and is giving up 1.93 HR/9. Over the last 30 days, Irvin's HR/9 has jumped up to 2.61.
Cincinnati's bullpen has a 4.11 ERA over the last 30 days. Compare that with Baltimore's bullpen ERA of 5.46 and a BABIP of .378 over the last 30 days.
Then when we look at the offenses, the Reds offense is averaging over 6.5 runs per game over the last 14 days with a SLG of .515. Baltimore's offense is heating up as of late in their own right. The Orioles' offense has a .448 SLG in the last 14 days.
The final element of this pick, the weather. Temperature is looking to be in the mid-80's to high-70's throughout the game. And we are seeing 15mph winds blowing straight out. This will play well into the hands of these powerful offenses.
NYM Mets ML (-175)
Little juicy on this one. But I’m going to swallow the juice because I don’t trust the Mets bullpen. I like this spot for Verlander against the Brewers offense. The veteran Verlander hasn't been as dominant this season. He is 0-2 with a 5.33 ERA over his last 5 starts. But today, Verlander will go against a bad Milwaukee offense. The Brewers offense is striking out at a 28.6% rate over the last 14 days, hitting .203 as a team during that span. This is a great spot for Verlander to dominate.
ATL Braves -1.5 (+100)
I like this spot for Spencer Strider. Strider is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball with a 39% K rate on the season. He'll be going against a Twins lineup that strikes out a lot. The Twins offense is striking out at a 27% rate this season. I would expect a lot of swings and misses from the Twins lineup today.
On the other side, the Braves offense is on a tear. The Braves are scoring almost 8 runs per game over the last 14 days. They are hitting .308 as a team with a .576 SLG in that time frame.
MIN Twins/ATL Braves NRFI (-110)
Sonny Gray (MIN) 13-2 (87%) overall, 5-1 (83%) in away games. Gray is limiting opposing hitters to a .118 batting average in the 1st inning this season.
Spencer Strider (ATL) 11-4 (73%) overall, 5-2 (71%) in home games. Strider has a 42% K rate in the 1st inning this season, limiting opposing hitters to a .182 batting average.
TEX Rangers F5 -0.5 (-140)
I’ll take the veteran Andrew Heaney and the superior Rangers offense against the Tigers. The Rangers offense struggled over the weekend against the Yankees and the Yankees bullpen that has been lights out all season. But today, they're facing Matthew Boyd and the Detroit Tigers.
Heaney has shown signs of struggling with control at times this season. The lefty is giving up walks at a 10% rate this season. But the Tigers' offense does not walk at a high rate. On the flip side, Matthew Boyd has a 5.46 ERA and is allowing a .329 BABIP in his last 5 starts. He'll have the challenge of facing a Texas lineup that has scored almost 6 runs per game this season.
LAA Angels ML (-140)
I like Reid Detmers more than Dylan Cease in this matchup. In his last 4 starts, Detmers has a 2.28 ERA and is giving the Angels almost 6 innings per start. He will be facing a mediocre White Sox lineup. The White Sox are struggling to score 3.5 runs per game over the last 14 days with a team OBP of .276.
On the flip side, Dylan Cease has his strikeout pitch working but is also struggling with walks. Cease has a 36% K rate but a 12.6% BB rate over his last 5 starts. When you're facing an Angels lineup that consists of guys named Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, you cannot give up free passes.
SEA Mariners -1.5 (-120)
The Mariners have the far superior starter in Luis Castillo compared to Trevor Williams. And the Nationals offense has struggled with run production. The Nationals offense is scoring 3.54 runs per game over the last two weeks. They'll be going up against Luis Castillo on the mound for the Mariners today. Castillo has a 2.73 ERA, is limiting hitters to a .203 BABIP, and is giving Seattle just shy of 6 innings per start in his last 5 starts.
The Nationals will send out Trevor Williams. In his last 5 starts, Williams has a 3.81 ERA, 5.42 FIP, and is allowing a .325 BABIP. The Mariners offense hasn't been the best in their own right. But I don't think the Nationals offense can produce the run support needed.
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