Loaded MLB slate with 14 games today. Let's dig into it. Odds according to BetSaracen.
Game Plays:
ATL Braves ML (-160)
I like this matchup for the Braves’ offense against Luke Weaver (CIN). The Braves’ offense is on fire. Atlanta is scoring 6 runs per game over the last 30 days, hitting .289 as a team with a .512 SLG%. They’ll be facing Luke Weaver today. Weaver has a 6.47 ERA this season, 5.48 FIP, and is allowing 2.05 HR/9 on the season. Weaver has gotten roughed up here lately despite the recent hot streak for Cincinnati. In his last 2 starts, Weaver’s K rate has dropped to 8% and his walk rate has gone up to 12%. Really good weather today in Cincinnati should provide a boost in home runs and run scoring. I’ll take the Braves.
PHI Phillies ML (-120)
I am siding with Taijuan Walker in this pitching matchup today against Kodai Senga (NYM). Taijuan Walker has really performed well as of late. Walker is 4-1 in his last 5 starts with a 2.05 ERA. In his last two starts, Walker’s pitched to the tune of a 0.69 ERA and did not give up any home runs. On the other side, Kodai Senga is 2-2 in his last 5 starts with a 4.08 FIP. Senga has a strong K rate at 28.3% on the season, but he also has a 13.4% walk rate which is high.
TEX Rangers F5 ML (-115)
I am going against Clarke Schmidt (NYY) in this matchup. Schmidt is 2-6 with a 4.65 ERA on the year. Schmidt has been mediocre at best. He will have his hands full against an explosive Rangers lineup. For the Yankees, we’ve seen their offense struggle recently with no Aaron Judge. The Yankees’ offense is the worst lineup in the MLB in run scoring and OBP over the last 14 days. I like the Rangers to have success against Schmidt.
MIL Brewers ML (+120)
This one is more of a gut feeling. I don’t believe in Shane Bieber (CLE). Bieber is 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA and 4.15 FIP in 15 starts on the season. The Brewers offense has struggled this season, hitting just .226 as a team. But in this matchup against Shane Bieber, I think the Brewers lineup can have enough success to pull it off.
LAA Angels ML (-160)
I like this matchup for the Angels offense against Kyle Freeland (COL). Freeland is 4-8 with a 4.48 ERA this season. Freeland is 0-3 with a 5.67 ERA in his last 5 starts with a K rate just barely over 10%. As usual, the weather in Colorado is projected to boost home runs and run scoring. This bodes well for an Angels lineup that has a .458 SLG over the last 14 days.
SD Padres -1.5 (-130)
The Padres are coming off smashing the Giants yesterday. Today they’ll get to face the struggling Patrick Corbin. Corbin is 4-8 with a 4.89 ERA and a K rate of 14.1%, which is the lowest amongst today’s starters. Patrick Corbin has especially struggled with his control lately. In his last 2 starts, Corbin’s K rate and walk rate are almost even. I would expect the Padres to light up the scoreboard today.
NRFI/YRFI:
KC Royals/TB Rays NRFI (-130)
Zack Greinke (KC) 13-2 (87%) overall, 5-2 (71%) in away games. Zach Eflin (TB) 10-3 (77%) overall, 6-1 (86%) in home games. KC 50-24 (68%) overall, 27-9 (75%) in away games, & 8-2 in their last 10. TB 51-27 (65%) overall, 23-18 (56%) in away games, & 9-1 in their last 10.
SEA Mariners/BAL Orioles YRFI (-105)
Logan Gilbert (SEA) 5-9 (36%) overall, 2-6 (25%) in away games. Kyle Gibson (BAL) 10-5 (67%) overall, 3-3 (50%) in home games. SEA 51-22 (70%) overall, 27-8 (77%) in away games, & 7-3 in their last 10. BAL 56-17 (77%) overall, 23-12 (66%) in away games, & 6-4 in their last 10.
NYM Mets/PHI Phillies NRFI (-105)
Kodai Senga (NYM) 11-2 (85%) overall, 4-2 (67%) in away games. Taijuan Walker (PHI) 11-3 (79%) overall, 6-0 (100%) in home games. NYM 60-14 (81%) overall, 37-5 (88%) in away games, & 6-4 in their last 10. PHI 53-21 (72%) overall, 24-8 (75%) in away games, & 6-4 in their last 10.
Player Prop:
Clark Schmidt (NYY) u17.5 Outs (-120)
Schmidt has gone under this line in 8 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5. The 2 of his last 10 where he did go over this mark are the only times he’s gone over that mark this season. As mentioned above, he'll have his hands full with this Rangers lineup. I like the Rangers to get him out of the game early.
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