4-3 yesterday, profitable again. Let's dig into today's MLB slate. Odds according to BetSaracen.
ATL Braves ML (-110)
I had this play yesterday before the game got postponed. So, I’m sticking with it again. I like the Braves in this matchup against Aaron Nola (PHI). Nola is going to give up runs. The veteran has a 5.34 ERA over the last 30 days, 6.92 ERA in his last 2 starts. The Braves’ offense is on fire. Atlanta's lineup has been scoring over 7 runs per game over the last 14 days. They have a team batting average of .313 with a .557 SLG in the last 14 days. I'll take the Braves.
ATL Braves/PHI Phillies NRFI (-120)
Bryce Elder (ATL) 12 - 2 (86%) overall, 4 - 1 (80%) in away games. Aaron Nola (PHI) 10 - 5 (67%) overall, 5 - 1 (83%) in home games. ATL 42 - 31 (58%) overall, 22 - 12 (65%) in away games, & 5 - 5 in their last 10. PHI 52 - 21 (71%) overall, 23 - 8 (74%) in away games, & 6 - 4 in their last 10.
MIN Twins ML (-165)
This is a good price for a pitching matchup between Joe Ryan and Justin Garza, who is making his first start of the season. Limited sample size on Garza so far this season as he’s only pitched 13 total innings across 12 appearances. Garza has a 10.5% walk rate this season. But that number has risen to 16.7% in his 3 appearances over the past 14 days. On the other side, Joe Ryan is 7-4 with a 3.30 ERA this season. Recently, Ryan has been solid with eliminating walks and keeping runners off the basepaths with a 1.08 WHIP. The Twins offense has been mediocre lately, striking out a lot. I think today is a good opportunity for them to get back on track.
OAK Athletics/CLE Guardians o7.5 (-120)
JP Sears (OAK) and Logan Allen (CLE) have been getting rocked lately. JP Sears has a 4.50 ERA over his last 2 starts. He is allowing 3.00 HR/9 in that time frame. On the other side, Logan Allen has a 10.00 ERA over his last two starts. Allen is giving up a .367 BABIP with a WHIP above 2. Decent weather in Cleveland today shouldn’t affect the run scoring. Cleveland’s offense is turning a corner from a slow start to the season. They are scoring 5.5 runs per game and hitting over .300 in the past 14 days.
SD Padres/SF Giants u8.5 (-120)
Two very good starting pitchers in this matchup in Blake Snell (SD) and Alex Wood (SF). In his last 5 starts, Snell has a 0.60 ERA, 38.8% K rate, and is allowing a .236 BABIP. For Alex Wood, he has not given up a home run in his last 3 starts. And Wood is coming off a start in which he went 5 innings, no walks, and no earned runs. Weather is indicating a cold day in San Francisco which will negate home runs and run scoring.
SD Padres/SF Giants NRFI (-110)
Blake Snell (SD) 10 - 4 (71%) overall, 4 - 3 (57%) in away games. Alex Wood (SF) 6 - 2 (75%) overall, 3 - 1 (75%) in home games. SD 50 - 24 (68%) overall, 24 - 11 (69%) in away games, & 6 - 4 in their last 10. SF 51 - 23 (69%) overall, 28 - 10 (74%) in away games, & 7 - 3 in their last 10.
PIT Pirates/MIA Marlins NRFI (-140)
Mitch Keller (PIT) 9 - 6 (60%) overall, 5 - 3 (63%) in away games. Braxton Garrett (MIA) 10 - 3 (77%) overall, 3 - 2 (60%) in home games. PIT 53 - 20 (73%) overall, 24 - 12 (67%) in away games, & 8 - 2 in their last 10. MIA 63 - 12 (84%) overall, 32 - 5 (86%) in away games, & 9 - 1 in their last 10.
PIT Pirates/MIA Marlins u7.5 (-135)
Two solid starting pitchers in Mitch Keller (PIT) and Braxton Garrett (MIA) combined with two mediocre offenses. These two pitchers both have a WHIP below 1 in their last 2 starts. Mitch Keller has limited opposing hitters to a .185 BABIP in his last two starts. On the flip side, Braxton Garrett has not given up a home run in his last 2 starts and has a 0.79 ERA in those two starts. The Pirates offense has been struggling as of late. They are scoring only 3 runs per game and hitting .205 as a team over the last 14 days. Miami’s offense is not much better. The Marlins are scoring 4 runs per game during the same time. With two struggling offenses and two good pitchers, I’ll take the under.
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