248-204 (+11u) on the MLB season. Got 9 picks for today's MLB slate. Odds according to BetSaracen.
STL Cardinals ML -155
Cardinals coming off taking the final 2 games in a 3 game series on the road against the Mets. Nationals have lost 5 of their last 6 including 3 straight at home against Miami.
Jack Flaherty (STL) will take the mound in today's matchup for the Cardinals. Flaherty has struggled with walks as of late, walking batters at a 15.4% rate in his last 2 starts. But he'll be facing a Nationals lineup with a 3.8% rate, by far lowest in MLB, over the last 14 days. The Nationals lineup also has a .270 OBP over the last 14 days. I think this is a good spot for Flaherty to turn a corner.
STL Cardinals/WAS Nationals NRFI +100
NRFI Records:
Jack Flaherty (STL) - 9-5 this season (64%), 5-3 on the road (63%)
Josiah Gray (WAS) - 11-3 overall (79%), 4-1 at home (80%)
Cardinals offense - 25-13 on the road (66%), 7-3 in the last 10
Nationals offense - 23-13 at home (64%), 7-3 in the last 10
DET Tigers ML -145
Detroit coming off winning 3 of 4 on the road against the Twins. Royals coming off losing 2 of 3 at home against the Angels.
Jordan Lyles (KC) is 0-11 with a 6.89 ERA across 14 starts this season. In his last 2 starts, Lyles has a meager 11.3% K rate. The Tigers offense has improved over the last couple weeks from the start of the season. Over the past 14 days, the Detroit lineup has seen improvements in run scoring, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.
BOS Red Sox ML +110
Red Sox coming off a 3 game sweep of the Yankees. Twins coming off losing 3 of 4 at home to the Tigers.
James Paxton has been solid on the mound for the Red Sox. He has a 3.09 ERA on the season, and it drops down to 1.38 over his last 2 starts. Paxton has not allowed a home run in his last 2 starts and is striking out batters at a 32.1% K rate. Paxton will be facing a Twins lineup that has a 27.3% K rate on the season, highest in the MLB. The Twins lineup is hitting only .213 over the last 14 days and has seen a decrease in run production. Minnesota is only generating 3.5 runs per game over the last 14 days compared to 4.3 runs per game on the season.
ARI Diamondbacks ML +105
Arizona coming off winning 2 of 3 against Cleveland. Milwaukee coming off a 3 game sweep of the Pirates.
Corbin Burnes (MIL) has been dominant lately striking out 1/3 of total batters faced in his last 2 starts and only allowing 1 walk. But he's facing a Diamondbacks offense that strikes out at one of the lowest rates in the MLB. The Arizona offense has been scorching as of late. The D'backs are hitting .283 with a .482 SLG% over the last 14 days.
ARI Diamondbacks/MIL Brewers NRFI -135
NRFI Records:
Merrill Kelly - 12-2 (86%) overall, 6-0 (100%) on the road
Corbin Burnes - 9-5 (64%) overall, 4-3 (57%) at home
Arizona - 19-12 (61%) on the road, 7-3 in last 10
Milwaukee - 24-13 (65%) at home, 7-3 in last 10
NYM Mets ML +105
Mets coming off dropping 2 of 3 at home against the Cardinals. Houston has lost 4 straight, including getting swept by the Reds.
Max Scherzer (NYM) has struggled in his last two starts. The veteran has managed to go only 9 innings with an 11.00 ERA in his last 2 starts. But I like Mad Max to turn the page on those struggles against the Astros today.
On the other side, Hunter Brown has seen a decrease in his K% and an increase in his walk%. Brown has a 27.1% K rate and a 8.5% walk rate on the season. But over his last 2 starts, the strike out rate has diminished to 18.4% and the walk rate has risen to 12.2%.
NYM Mets/HOU Astros NRFI -150
NRFI Records:
Max Scherzer - 7-4 (64%) overall, 5-2 (71%) on the road
Hunter Brown - 11-2 (85%) overall, 5-1 (83%) at home
Mets - 34-5 (87%) on the road, 5-5 in last 10
Astros - 24-14 (63%) at home, 6-4 in last 10
SD Padres ML -115
The Padres are coming off winning 2 of 3 against the Tampa Bay Rays. But the San Francisco Giants have won 7 in a row after sweeping the Cardinals and the Dodgers.
I think the Giants luck runs out tonight. They are facing Michael Wacha who has been dominant over the last month. Wacha has a 1.19 ERA and limiting batters to a .227 BABIP in 5 starts over the last 30 days. The right hander has not allowed an earned run in either of his last 2 starts. With the Giants sending out Ryan Walker to make his first start of the season, I like the Padres tonight.
Comentarii