2-2 split yesterday. 3 picks for today's MLB slate. Odds according to BetSaracen.
TOR Blue Jays ML -135
Both teams coming off a rest day. Toronto lost 2 of 3 at home against the Twins. Baltimore coming off a 3 game sweep at home against the Royals. This is a pretty even matchup when comparing offenses. Baltimore has the slight edge in runs per game, RBI's, & SLG%. But Toronto has the slight edge in batting average, home runs, and OBP. So in my eyes, this comes down to the pitching matchup between Chris Bassitt (TOR) and Dean Kremer (BAL).
Chris Bassitt is 7-4 with a 3.29 ERA across 13 starts. With the exception of a rough outing on May 27 in which he gave up 7 Earned Runs in 4 innings, Bassitt has been strong in his last 5 starts. In those 4 other starts, he has gone over 6 innings in all 4 and completed at least 7 innings in 3 of them. Bassitt is limiting opposing hitters to a .214 BABIP. As long as he can limit walks, Bassitt can limit the Orioles offense.
Kremer is 6-3 with a 4.89 ERA across 13 starts. Kremer is coming off a rough outing last time in which he gave up 6 Earned Runs in 5 innings. Opposing hitters have a .337 BABIP against Kremer this season. With the wind expecting to be blowing out to left field, this could mean trouble for a pitcher that gives up fly balls and is facing a Blue Jays lineup that is loaded with power hitting right handed batters.
MIL Brewers/MIN Twins o7.5 -115
Corbin Burnes and the Brewers vs. Pablo Lopez and the Twins. This line is at 7.5 due to both starting pitchers coming off masterclass performances last time they both took the mound. But with both offenses scoring over 4 runs per game, I think we could see enough run scoring for this game to go over.
In his last start, Corbin Burnes (MIL) pitched 8 shutout innings, allowing only 2 hits, and striking out 9. But we have also seen Burnes single-handedly allow 4+ runs in 4 of his 13 starts. Prior to his most recent outing, Burnes had given up 3+ earned runs in 3 of his previous 4.
On the other side, Pablo Lopez (MIN) is coming off a start in which he went 7 innings, allowing only 1 run on a home run. But in the 4 starts before that, he had given up a combined 17 earned runs. Lopez has given up 4+ earned runs in 5 of his 13 starts this season.
PIT Pirates/CHI Cubs o8.5 -120
Luis Ortiz (PIT) and Jameson Taillon (CHI) will take the mound today. Ortiz has been decent for the Pirates in his 5 starts this season. But he has been less than dominant. Ortiz has allowed 11 earned runs across his 5 starts. But those 5 starts only consist of 22 2/3 innings of work. He is allowing a .326 BABIP to opposing hitters.
Taillon is 1-4 with a 7.02 ERA across 10 starts. Jameson is allowing a .336 BABIP. In his last 5 starts, Taillon has allowed 19 earned runs across 22 2/3 innings.
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