130-101-19 on the MLB season, still up over 10 units. 6 picks for today's MLB slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
TOR Blue Jays ML (-140)
The Toronto Blue Jays are going on the road to face one of the more surprising teams of the year, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Chris Bassitt will be on the mound for the Blue Jays today. He will be going up against veteran Rich Hill. I like this matchup for Chris Bassitt against the Pirates lineup and I think the Blue Jays will pull off a win today.
Chris Bassitt is 3-2 with a 5.18 ERA this season. Bassitt's ERA is surprising considering he is limiting opposing hitters to a .213 BABIP (batting average balls in play). However, walks and home runs have been Chris Bassitt's kryptonite. Bassitt is allowing 4.36 walks per 9 innings and is giving up 1.64 home runs per 9 innings. In a game like this, walks will be poison for Bassitt as he is going up a Pirates lineup that leads the MLB in stolen bases.
On the other side, the aging veteran Rich Hill will take the mound for the Pirates. Hill is 3-2 with a 4.18 ERA. What stands out to me is Rich Hill's xERA of 6.81. This metric calculates an expected ERA for the pitcher based on the number of strikeouts, walks, hits, and fly balls the pitcher allows. So when considering the number of fly balls Hill allows, his ERA is actually more than 2 points lower than you would expect. And when he is facing a lineup that includes explosive bats, a fly ball from a Blue Jays hitter could land on the other side of the fence.
I like the Blue Jays to win this ballgame.
NYY Yankees +1.5 (-130)
The New York Yankees are visiting the 1st place Tampa Bay Rays today. The young arm of Jhony Brito (NYY) will look to limit the top offense in the MLB this season. The Yankees will look to capitalize today against their division opponent.
Jhony Brito is 2-3 with a 5.56 ERA. With the exception of his matchup against the Twins where he failed to make it out of the 1st inning, Brito has been decent for the Yankees. However, he is not going deep into games. Brito has only pitched 22 2/3 innings this year throughout his 6 starts. Jhony is only striking out 6.75 batters per 9 innings and is giving up 4.37 walks per 9 innings. With a lot of question marks in the Yankees bullpen and facing the top offense in the MLB, Brito will need to bring his A-game and get through some innings to keep the Yankees in this game.
Yonny Chirinos will be making his first start for the Tampa Bay Rays. Chirinos has appeared in 4 games this season. He has done well in his appearances this season. Yonny Chirinos has a 0.64 ERA, is giving up only 1.29 walks per 9 innings, and is limiting opposing hitters to a .154 BABIP. He will be facing an injury riddled Yankees lineup but I do not expect him to go deep into this game.
I think the Yankees can generate some offense in Tampa Bay today and can keep this game close, or pull of a win.
ARI D-backs F5 ML (-170) & ARI/WAS u9.5 (-125)
I like this matchup for Merrill Kelly against this Washington Nationals team. Kelly has been good this season with a 3.06 ERA and is allowing a .275 BABIP to opposing hitters. Merrill's weakness this year has been allowing walks, giving up 5 walks per 9 innings. However, he is going up against a Nationals lineup that does not draw a lot of walks and just isn't good overall.
On the other side, Josiah Gray is on the bump for the Washington Nationals. Gray is having a good season with a 2.67 ERA and allowing a .286 BABIP to opposing hitters. However, he can't get any run support from the Nationals offense. It would not surprise me if this game is Diamondbacks 1-0 or 2-0 at the end of 5 innings.
With two good starting pitchers today and a bad Washington lineup, I also think this game goes under the total of 9.5. Arizona is scoring 5 runs per game, but I think Josiah Gray can keep them below this number. The Nationals are averaging under 4 runs per game. I don't expect a high scoring affair today.
LAD Dodgers F5 ML (-115)
I am backing the veteran left hander, Clayton Kershaw, in this exciting matchup between the Dodgers and Padres.
Looking at the offenses, the Dodgers have the edge in home runs, runs scored, ISO, AVG, OBP, SLG%. There is a reason the Dodgers have the 2nd ranked offense in terms of WAR in the MLB. Almost every offensive metric favors the Dodgers in this matchup.
The Dodgers will have Clayton Kershaw on the mound today. The veteran is off to a strong start in 2023 with a 5-1 record and a 1.89 ERA. Kershaw is averaging going more than 6 innings in his starts this season and limiting opposing hitters to a .215 BABIP. And he is almost completely eliminating walks, giving up only 1.18 walks per 9 innings.
On the other side, Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Padres. Darvish has a 3.60 ERA in 5 starts this season. He is striking out 10.2 batters per 9 innings. Yu Darvish will have the challenge of facing the a strong Dodgers lineup.
This will be a tight ballgame. I think both starting pitchers will have success. But I have to back the veteran Clayton Kershaw and the explosive Dodgers lineup.
MIL Brewers F5 ML (-120)
Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers are visiting Sean Manaea and the San Francisco Giants. Sean Manaea is one of my automatic First 5 Innings fade. And Corbin Burnes has the edge in this matchup over Manaea in most pitching metrics.
Burnes is 3-1 with a 4.01 ERA. His strikeout numbers are down, only striking out 7.22 batters per 9 innings. But Corbin Burnes is having success keeping the ball in the ballpark and limiting opposing hitters. Burnes is allowing a .258 BABIP and is allowing only 0.8 home runs per 9 innings. This will be key for him when he faces the Giants lineup which ranks 4th in home runs.
Now for why I'm fading Sean Manaea. Manaea has a 7.85 ERA and 8.20 xERA. Sean Manaea is giving up 5.4 walks per 9 innings and is allowing 2.95 home runs per 9 innings. He is really struggling to limit opposing batters. I don't see any signs of that changing today.
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