*Insert corny May the Forth be with you joke here*. 127-98-19 on the MLB season. 5 picks for today's MLB slate.
CHI Cubs -1.5 (-120)
I like this matchup for Jameson Taillon and the Chicago Cubs going against Patrick Corbin and a bad Washington Nationals team.
Looking at the pitching matchup, Taillon has the edge over Corbin in K/9, BB/9, & HR/9. This means Taillon is striking out a greater percentage of batters, walking a few percentage of batters, and is keeping the ball in the ballpark at better rates than Patrick Corbin. Jameson Taillon has an xERA of 2.88 and an FIP of 1.93. Compare that to Patrick Corbin's 6.92 xERA and 5.37 FIP. It is clear that the Cubs have the edge in starting pitchers with Taillon on the bump.
Now let's look at the offenses side by side. Home runs advantage: Cubs, runs scored advantage: Cubs, BABIP advantage: Cubs, SLG% advantage: Cubs. And the advantage for the Cubs is substantial in most of these metrics. The Nationals offense is simply not very good. Washington ranks near the bottom in the MLB in offensive production.
When you take into consideration the fact that the Cubs have the better starting pitcher today and the better offense, it's hard to make an argument they shouldn't cruise to a victory in this matchup.
TB Rays -1.5 (+110) & PIT Pirates/TB Rays o7.5 (-135)
This is another matchup I like in today's slate. I like Zach Eflin on the mound today for the Rays against the Pittsburgh Pirates. And until I see a reason to fade them, I am going to be backing the Rays offense.
The Tampa Bay Rays lineup ranks 1st in MLB in home runs, runs scored, RBIs, ISO, Batting Avg, OBP, & SLG%. They are also top 5 in stolen bases and BABIP. The Pirates offense is also good, but I don't see how they can keep pace with the Rays offense.
This matchup will have two decent starting pitchers in Zach Eflin (TB) and Vince Velasquez (PIT). Eflin is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 3.78 FIP. Zach Eflin is striking out 9 batters per 9 innings and limiting walks to 1.29 per 9 innings. On the other side, Vince Velasquez is 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 3.79 FIP. Velasquez is striking out 8.91 batters per 9 innings but is struggling with limiting walks, allowing 3.34 per 9 innings.
With this game being played in a dome, weather is not a factor. I expect these two offenses to put some runs on the scoreboard and for this game to go over the total, as well.
LAA Angels/STL Cardinals o8.5 (-125)
Griffin Canning is taking the hill for the Los Angeles Angels as they take on Jack Flaherty and the St Louis Cardinals today. With neither pitcher showing evidence of dominating, I am expecting this to be a high scoring matchup.
The Angels offense is scoring just over 5 runs per game. The Cardinals offense is scoring just over 4 runs per game. So if both teams simply stay true to their season averages, this game will go over.
Now let's look at the pitchers. First, Griffin Canning who will be making his 4th start of the season for the Angels. Canning has a 4.11 ERA and a 4.27 FIP. Griffin Canning only averages just over 5 innings pitched in his 3 starts this season. This could force the Angels to have to rely on their bullpen for almost half this game.
On the other side, Jack Flaherty will toe the rubber for the Cardinals. Flaherty is 2-3 with a 5.18 xERA and a 5.17 FIP. Jack Flaherty has struggled with control this season, allowing 5.91 BB/9 to opposing batters. Control issues spell trouble when a pitcher is facing a lineup that includes Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.
Neither starting pitchers show any signs of locking down these offenses, and both offenses contain the possibility of lighting up the scoreboard. I am taking the over in this matchup.
MIN Twins -1.5 (+135) & MIN Twins/CWS White Sox o7.5 (-125)
Lucas Giolito and the Chicago White Sox are facing Pablo Lopez and the Minnesota Twins. Giolito and Lopez are what "overs pitchers" meaning games they pitch in have a history of going over the total. In a game that could see some offensive firepower, I also tend to back the better offense which is the Twins in this matchup.
Lucas Giolito has a 4.15 ERA and is allowing a .313 BABIP to opposing hitters. This could mean trouble for Giolito when facing a Twins lineup that has shown their ability to crush the baseball.
On the other side, Pablo Lopez has a 4.00 ERA and is allowing a BABIP of .326 to opposing hitters. The White Sox offense has not been impressive to start this season. But in a matchup like this, the White Sox could capitalize on scoring opportunities.
When looking at a game that is expecting a high volume of offense, I tend to back the team with the better offense. I think the Twins potentially expand on a lead late or jump out to a decent lead early on their way to a win.
ATL Braves/MIA Marlins u8.5 (-110)
Dylan Dodd will be looking to turn things around in his 3rd start of the season as the Atlanta Braves take on the Miami Marlins.
Dodd has failed to total 10 innings pitched between his 2 starts so far this season. He has a disastrous 7.71 ERA, a 5.18 FIP, and is allowing a .424 BABIP to opposing hitters. But, I think he can turn things around today as he faces a struggling Marlins offense. The Marlins are 29th in the MLB in runs scored, averaging 3.39 runs per game.
On the hill for the Marlins is Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo has a 3.48 ERA and is striking out over 10 batters per 9 innings. His upper-90s fastball can be troublesome for opposing hitters. Jesus Luzardo is also a better pitcher when pitching at home. I'm not saying he will completely shut down the Braves lineup, but I expect him to at least limit their offensive production.
With Dylan Dodd trying to turn things around and Jesus Luzardo looking to limit a powerful Braves lineup, I think this game has the makings for a tight game that goes under the total.
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