We are 42-20-3 (+15.36u) on the MLB season. 11 picks from predictive model for today's MLB Slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
Reds/Phillies u7 (+100)
If you're a fan of intense pitching battles and tight defensive plays, then you're in for a treat with tonight's MLB showdown between the Cincinnati Reds and the Philadelphia Phillies. With the line currently set at 7, we've got a strong feeling that this game will go under the total, and here's why.
First up, let's talk about the starting pitchers. The Phillies will be sending power pitcher Zack Wheeler (0-1, 8.31 ERA) to the mound. Now, I know what you're thinking – that ERA doesn't look too hot. But hear me out: Wheeler had a rough season debut against the Texas Rangers last Saturday, but he's ready to bounce back in a big way. History has shown that when Wheeler is on his game at home, he's a force to be reckoned with. We're talking about a guy who can shut down offenses and keep runs at a minimum. So don't let that one bad outing fool you – Wheeler is more than capable of turning things around and giving us a classic performance tonight.
On the other side of the field, the Reds will be sending their own power pitcher, right-hander Hunter Greene (0-0, 8.10 ERA), to face off against Wheeler. Greene, much like Wheeler, is looking to rebound after a less-than-stellar start on Opening Day against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite allowing three runs and five hits over 3 1/3 innings, Greene demonstrated his strikeout prowess with eight Ks. This will be his first career start against the Phillies, and we're expecting a solid performance from this young hurler.
Games with strong home starting pitchers, like Wheeler, have a profitable history of going under the combined game total. So with these two talented pitchers taking the mound, runs are going to be hard to come by for both teams.
Now, let's talk about the lineups. The Phillies are dealing with some injury woes, with outfielder Brandon Marsh and first baseman Darick Hall both being questionable for tonight's game. Their absence would be a blow to the Phillies' offensive output. With Rhys Hoskins out due to a torn ACL and Bryce Harper not expected back until the All-Star break, the Phillies' lineup isn't as intimidating as it once was. This only adds to our confidence in this game going under the total.
On the other hand, the Reds' bullpen has had some time to rest after back-to-back rainouts, which should help them perform better than they did in their 12-5 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night. With a refreshed bullpen and Greene on the mound, the Reds' pitching staff should be able to keep the Phillies' offense in check.
So, what does all this mean for tonight's game? Well, we've got two power pitchers looking to bounce back from rough starts, a Phillies lineup that's dealing with injuries, and a rested Reds bullpen ready to lock things down. All signs point to a low-scoring affair that's sure to keep fans on the edge of their seats.
If you're looking for a nail-biting, pitcher-dominated game, then you won't want to miss tonight's matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and the Philadelphia Phillies. And if you're thinking about placing a bet, our money's on this game going under the total of 7 runs. Just remember, there are no guarantees in sports betting – but this one has all the makings of a classic pitchers' duel.
Yankees/Orioles u9 (-120) & Yankees ML (-130)
Today's MLB face-off between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles promises to be a thrilling showdown. The Yankees have been on fire this season, winning both of their series, and they're ready to take that momentum into Camden Yards. With Dean Kremer on the mound for the Orioles and Clarke Schmidt pitching for the Yankees, this clash could be the perfect storm for a Yankees victory.
First off, let's talk about Dean Kremer. The Orioles' right-hander has had a rocky start to the season, posting a 15.00 ERA after giving up five runs in just three innings against the Boston Red Sox. But it's not just his recent performance that's raising eyebrows; it's his history against the Yankees. In six all-time starts against the Bronx Bombers, Kremer has a 1-3 record with a 5.34 ERA, averaging more than a strikeout per inning (33 in 28 2/3 innings). As much as we love a good underdog story, those stats don't bode well for Kremer's chances against the Yankees' powerful lineup.
Now, let's shift gears to the Yankees' pitcher, Clarke Schmidt. Sure, he had a rough outing in his first start against the San Francisco Giants, allowing three runs on five hits (two of them homers) in just 3 1/3 innings. But Schmidt has shown promise in his career outings against the Orioles, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 8 2/3 innings of relief appearances. The young right-hander is hungry for redemption, and there's no better stage than Camden Yards to prove his worth.
The Yankees' lineup has been nothing short of explosive this season, scoring at least four runs in all but one game and hitting at least one home run in every game. Gleyber Torres, in particular, has been a force to be reckoned with, boasting a .421 batting average, two home runs, six RBIs, and five stolen bases. The guy is on fire, and he's not slowing down anytime soon. As Torres himself said, "I feel really comfortable every at-bat. Don't try to do too much, just trying to hit and get a really good at-bat every time." With this level of confidence and consistency, it's hard to see how Kremer and the Orioles' pitching staff can contain the Yankees' offensive juggernaut.
Let's also address the fact that the Yankees have been owning the Orioles at Camden Yards recently. In 2022, the Yanks won 12 of the 19 games against the Orioles, showing that they're more than comfortable playing in Baltimore. With the added excitement of the Orioles' home opener, the Yankees have the opportunity to ride the energy and extend their early-season success.
It's worth noting that both teams have hit 11 home runs so far this season, but the Yankees' pitching staff has been far superior, with a team ERA of 2.33 and only 14 runs allowed. In contrast, Baltimore's pitchers have a 5.40 ERA and have given up 34 runs (31 earned). The difference between the teams' success lies in their performance on the mound, and it's clear that the Yankees have the upper hand in this department.
So, there you have it: the New York Yankees are set to crush the Baltimore Orioles in today's game. With Dean Kremer struggling against a lineup that's had his number, and Clarke Schmidt looking to bounce back, the stage is set for the Yankees to continue their early-season dominance.
Astros F5 ML (+105) & Astros/Twins o7.5 (-110)
As we gear up for this epic battle between the Houston Astros and the Minnesota Twins, it's time to break down why the Astros have the edge in this game, and it all starts with the man on the mound: Jose Urquidy.
While Urquidy may not be the household name that Sonny Gray has become, this young gun is showing he's got what it takes to go toe-to-toe with the best in the league. In his first start of the season, Urquidy showed off a sharper slider and curveball, which could prove crucial in keeping the Twins' bats at bay. If he can hold them to three runs or less, the Astros' offense should have no problem putting up the runs needed to secure a win.
On the other side of the diamond, Sonny Gray is coming off a decent season debut against the Royals, throwing five scoreless innings and allowing just three hits. However, those stats don't tell the whole story. Gray struggled with his control, walking four batters and posting a .362 expected batting average (xBA). Additionally, the Royals were hitting the ball hard against him, with an average exit velocity of 95 MPH. These stats suggest that Gray might not be as untouchable as some might think, and the Astros' potent lineup will be ready to capitalize on any mistakes he makes.
Speaking of the Astros' lineup, this team is no stranger to being the underdog. Last season, they were underdogs in only 24 of their 162 games, so they know how to rise to the occasion. As of now, Houston sits at plus odds on the money line for the first time this season, and taking them to win outright could prove to be a savvy play for bettors looking for an edge.
The Twins' lineup, while formidable, may struggle against Urquidy's improved secondary pitches. The Astros' pitcher has had success in the past against this particular lineup, and with his recent adjustments, he could have the Twins batters swinging and missing all night long.
Of course, no MLB game is without its uncertainties, and injuries or sudden slumps could always play a factor. But as it stands now, the Astros have the pitching advantage with Jose Urquidy on the hill, and their lineup is more than capable of putting up the runs needed to secure a victory over the Minnesota Twins.
For those looking to make a wager on this game, taking the Astros on the money line at plus odds could prove to be a wise move. With Urquidy's pitching improvements and the Astros' history of performing well as underdogs, this bet has the potential to provide a solid return.
As always, it's important to remember that nothing in sports betting is a sure thing. However, the factors mentioned above, along with the Astros' track record of success and the improvements in Jose Urquidy's pitching arsenal, make a compelling case for taking the Houston Astros to win this game against the Minnesota Twins.
So, buckle up, baseball fans, and get ready for this intense matchup between the Astros and Twins. It's sure to be a game you won't want to miss, and if you're betting on it, remember the old saying: fortune favors the bold. In this case, that bold move just might be taking the Houston Astros on the money line.
Mariners F5 ML (+100) & Mariners/Guardians o7 (-110)
The MLB season is in full swing and we're already seeing some intriguing matchups, but none more so than the upcoming game between the Seattle Mariners and the Cleveland Guardians. In their second meeting of the 2023 season, the Mariners are looking to redeem themselves after losing 3 out of 4 games in the opening series against the Guardians. But this time, I'm betting on Seattle to turn the tide and snatch a win, thanks to their talented pitcher, Logan Gilbert.
Now, let's dive into the details and see why the Mariners have a solid shot at victory. First and foremost, their starting pitcher, Logan Gilbert, is a force to be reckoned with. Despite being a major regression candidate from last season with an xERA of 4.11 compared to his actual 3.20 ERA, Gilbert has shown that he can bounce back and perform at a high level. In his first outing of the season against the same Cleveland lineup, he threw 6 innings and allowed only 1 earned run. That's the kind of performance that can tilt the game in Seattle's favor.
While the Mariners have had a rocky start to the season, with their offense and bullpen struggling to find their rhythm, it's only a matter of time before they get back on track. Ty France has been a bright spot in the lineup, and if the rest of the offense can step up, they'll be a force to be reckoned with. Plus, with Luis Castillo leading the starting pitching, they have a strong foundation to build upon.
Now, let's talk about the opposition. The Cleveland Guardians have gotten off to a decent start, taking 3 out of 4 games from the Mariners in their opening series, but they're not invincible. Aaron Civale, their starting pitcher for this matchup, may have pitched 7 scoreless innings against Seattle in their previous meeting, but lightning doesn't always strike twice. The Mariners have had a chance to study Civale's performance and will be better prepared to face him this time around.
Moreover, the Guardians will be playing in front of their home crowd for their season opener, which can be both a blessing and a curse. While the excitement of playing at home can energize a team, it can also put extra pressure on the players to perform, potentially leading to mistakes and missed opportunities.
Taking all of these factors into account, it's clear that the Mariners have a legitimate shot at taking down the Guardians in this matchup. Logan Gilbert's past success against this Cleveland lineup, combined with the Mariners' potential to find their offensive rhythm, makes this game an enticing bet for those looking for an edge in the MLB betting market.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed in the world of sports betting, but the Seattle Mariners appear to have the right pieces in place to secure a win against the Cleveland Guardians. With Logan Gilbert on the mound and a hungry offense eager to prove themselves, I'm backing the Mariners to sail past the Guardians and notch a much-needed victory.
So, for those looking to make a splash in the MLB betting scene, keep an eye on this Mariners-Guardians showdown. It's shaping up to be an epic battle, and with the right strategy and a little bit of luck, the Seattle Mariners just might come out on top.
SF Giants F5 ML (-170)
With the Giants' explosive offense and the Royals' struggling pitcher Brad Keller, we can expect an exciting and action-packed game that should heavily favor the home team.
Let's dive into why fading Brad Keller is historically profitable and why the San Francisco Giants are likely to succeed against him in today's matchup.
For starters, Brad Keller has only faced one batter on this Giants lineup, leaving him at a significant disadvantage. In baseball, it's essential for pitchers to study and understand their opponents, and with such limited exposure to the Giants' batters, Keller will be walking into a minefield of explosive offense. The Giants have already showcased their power this season, with ten different players hitting home runs in their first six games. This offensive prowess will undoubtedly challenge Keller and keep the Royals on their toes.
Another reason to fade Keller is his track record. The 27-year-old right-hander boasts a 0-1 record with a 3.86 ERA this season, having allowed two runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Minnesota Twins in his season debut. Although his performance wasn't terrible, it didn't exactly scream confidence. Keller's lack of experience against the Giants, combined with his underwhelming start to the season, highlights his vulnerability going into this game.
On the other hand, Giants' starting pitcher Alex Cobb is no stranger to the Kansas City Royals, having made seven career starts against them with a 2-3 record and a 4.57 ERA. Although these numbers may not seem overly impressive, Cobb's familiarity with the Royals' lineup should give him an edge in this matchup. Having spent his first 10 big-league seasons in the American League, Cobb knows all about facing the Royals and should be better prepared to handle their offense.
Furthermore, the Giants have been putting up some impressive offensive numbers this season, totaling 38 runs in their first six games. While 35 of these runs came on days following losses, this pattern could be broken today, as the Giants are coming off a massive 16-6 victory over the Chicago White Sox. With the momentum of this win behind them, the Giants could ride that wave right into their home opener and continue their offensive onslaught against the vulnerable Keller.
The Royals, on the other hand, have been struggling offensively, with only five home runs and a total of eight runs in their six losses. This lack of firepower will make it difficult for them to keep up with the high-scoring Giants and puts even more pressure on Keller to perform at his absolute best.
As the Royals step onto the field in San Francisco, they'll be hoping for a change of scenery to turn their fortunes around. However, with the Giants' powerful offense and Keller's shaky start to the season, it's hard to imagine the Royals pulling off an upset in this game.
So, sports fans and bettors alike, keep your eyes peeled for a thrilling home opener where the San Francisco Giants are set to capitalize on Brad Keller's weaknesses and continue their offensive dominance. While nothing in sports betting is ever a certainty, the data suggests that fading Keller in this matchup is the smart move.
Athletics/Rays o7.5 (-115)
As the Tampa Bay Rays continue their historic 6-0 start to the 2023 season, they prepare to welcome the Oakland Athletics at Tropicana Field for a weekend series that's sure to have sports bettors buzzing. With both teams' pitching lineups featuring Zach Eflin for Tampa Bay and Ken Waldichuk for Oakland, history suggests we're in for a game where runs will be plentiful.
Before diving into the nitty-gritty, let's take a moment to appreciate the Rays' incredible run thus far. They've dominated every game they've played, winning each by at least four runs, and posting a staggering +31 run differential. This impressive start has already shattered franchise records, and with an upcoming schedule that features a struggling Red Sox team, the Rays have a chance to solidify their spot in history.
But back to tonight's main event: Eflin vs. Waldichuk. While both pitchers have had their moments in the spotlight, games featuring either of these hurlers on the mound have a history of going over the total, making this matchup a prime target for bettors looking to capitalize on the potential for high-scoring action.
Eflin, boasting a 1-0 record and a 1.80 ERA, has shown promise for the Rays, but his history indicates that he's no stranger to high-scoring games. With a solid Rays offense backing him, led by the likes of Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena, there's no doubt that runs will be on the menu tonight.
On the other side, Waldichuk comes into the game with an 0-1 record and a less-than-stellar 9.53 ERA. Although the Athletics may be considered one of the least talented teams in the league, the prospect of facing Eflin and the red-hot Rays lineup could push this game into high-scoring territory.
In fact, looking at the data, games with either Eflin or Waldichuk on the mound have proven to be profitable for bettors seeking overs. This trend, combined with the current form of the Rays' offense, makes tonight's game an enticing opportunity for those looking to cash in on a high-scoring affair.
However, as any seasoned sports bettor knows, nothing is ever a guarantee in the world of sports betting. While the data and trends suggest that tonight's game has the potential to go over the total, it's essential to remember that every game is a new opportunity for both teams and their pitchers.
That being said, the stage is set for an explosive showdown between the A's and the Rays, and bettors should be ready to ride the wave of high-scoring action. With the combination of Eflin and Waldichuk's history, the Rays' red-hot start, and the Athletics' potential to put up runs against a formidable opponent, tonight's game could very well be a rollercoaster ride of runs, hits, and excitement.
So, to all the bettors out there looking for a thrilling MLB matchup, don't sleep on tonight's Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays game. The stage is set for a high-scoring showdown, and with the right mix of skill, luck, and perhaps a little bit of baseball magic, you might just find yourself on the winning side of a game that's bound to make history.
Cardinals/Brewers u8.5 (-115)
As the Cardinals and Brewers gear up for their first road series of the season, all eyes are on the two starting pitchers, Jack Flaherty for St. Louis and Brandon Woodruff for Milwaukee. These two right-handers have been tossing some serious heat this season, and we're predicting that their combined prowess will keep the game's total score on the low side.
Let's dive into the stats, shall we? Woodruff (0-0, 1.50 ERA) has been a beast at home, and he's looking to continue his dominance at the pitcher-friendly American Family Field. With a 5-4 record and a 2.74 ERA in 13 career appearances (11 starts) against the Cardinals, he's no stranger to shutting down their lineup. In fact, Woodruff went 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA in three starts against the Cardinals last season, and he's been on fire in his last 19 starts, boasting an 8-1 record with a 2.33 ERA.
On the other side, Flaherty (1-0, 0.00 ERA) has been equally impressive, tossing five innings of no-hit ball in his first start against the Toronto Blue Jays. However, he did issue a career-high seven walks, which could be a point of concern. When it comes to facing the Brewers, Flaherty holds a 3-6 record with a 5.00 ERA in 16 appearances (starts), and he's 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA in eight starts at Milwaukee. While these stats might not scream "ace," Flaherty has the potential to keep the Brewers' bats relatively quiet.
What's also worth noting is Milwaukee's revamped, youthful lineup. Rookies Brice Turang, Joey Wiemer, and Garrett Mitchell, along with newly acquired Brian Anderson, have been providing an offensive spark, with five of the Brewers' nine home runs coming from these fresh faces. While this explosive offense contributed to the Brewers' recent five-game winning streak, it's worth considering that they'll be up against a more formidable opponent in Flaherty, who's looking to bounce back from his walk-heavy start.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are coming off a disappointing sweep by the Atlanta Braves, but manager Oliver Marmol remains optimistic about his team's performance, particularly when it comes to their at-bats. However, it's hard to ignore the fact that the Cardinals have allowed a combined 20 runs in the first two innings of their first six games, including 13 against Atlanta. With Woodruff on the mound, the Cardinals will need to step up their game if they want to put runs on the board.
Given the impressive stats of both starting pitchers, it's not a stretch to predict that this game will stay under the total. Woodruff's exceptional performance at home, combined with Flaherty's potential to keep the Brewers' bats at bay, sets the stage for a true pitcher's duel. And, as we all know, games with a strong home starter have a profitable history of going under the combined total.
So, fellow sports betting enthusiasts, get ready for a thrilling, low-scoring battle between the Cardinals and Brewers. While we can't guarantee anything in the unpredictable world of baseball, the numbers are pointing to a game that should stay under the total.
Nationals F5 ML (+105)
After a rough start to the season, the Washington Nationals are looking to snap their four-game skid with a win against the Colorado Rockies. And if history has taught us anything, it's that fading Jose Urena could be the key to unlocking a Nationals victory.
For those not in the know, "fading" in sports betting jargon means betting against a particular player or team. In this case, we're talking about Rockies' right-handed pitcher Jose Urena. While Urena has had his moments in the past, the Nationals' lineup has consistently shown they can handle whatever he throws at them. So, let's dig into the data and see why fading Urena in this matchup could be a smart move for those looking to cash in on the Nats' potential resurgence.
First, let's take a look at the Nationals' bats. Although they've been struggling recently, there's reason to believe they can turn things around against Urena. In previous matchups, key players like Lane Thomas and Luis García have had significant success against the Rockies' hurler. Thomas, for instance, is off to a hot start this season, batting .381 with eight hits in 21 at-bats, driving in four runs and scoring one. García, on the other hand, has been a bit quieter but has historically raked against Urena. This bodes well for the Nats' offense.
Now, let's not forget about the Nats' pitching staff. Josiah Gray, who will be taking the mound for Washington, is coming off a tough loss against the Rockies where he allowed only one run on eight hits and one walk while striking out six batters in six innings. Despite the result, Gray's performance was one of the best outings of his young MLB career, racking up an impressive 19 swinging strikes. If Gray can replicate his recent success and keep the Rockies' offense in check, the Nats' lineup should have ample opportunity to capitalize on Urena's weaknesses.
Speaking of Urena, it's important to note that fading him has historically been a profitable strategy. Over the past few seasons, Urena's performances have been a mixed bag, with some solid outings followed by less-than-stellar appearances. In 2021, Urena had an overall 6.27 ERA with a 6.10 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and a 1.60 WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched). These numbers suggest that Urena has struggled with consistency and has been prone to giving up runs and hits. And with the Nationals' lineup having a track record of success against him, it seems like the perfect storm for a Washington victory.
But, as we all know, there are no guarantees in baseball. It's a game of inches, and anything can happen on any given night. However, based on the data and the Nationals' history against Urena, it's hard not to see the potential for a big win.
So, if you're looking to ride the wave of a Nationals comeback, now might be the perfect time to hop on board. With their lineup poised to exploit Urena's vulnerabilities and Gray looking to build on his recent success, there's a strong chance the Nats can snap their losing streak and secure a much-needed win. Just remember, nothing is set in stone, and every game is a new opportunity for players to rise or fall. But as things stand right now, fading Urena and backing the Nationals seems like a solid play.
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