8 picks from data driven predictive model for tonight's MLB slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
Mets/Brewers o8 (-110)
Today's game between the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers is set to surpass the combined game total of 8, and here's why.
Baseball fans and sports bettors alike, listen up! We're about to witness a showdown between the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers that's sure to have runs flying left and right. While both teams have solid pitchers in Carlos Carrasco for the Mets and Freddy Peralta for the Brewers, there's a history of high-scoring games when these two take the mound. So buckle up and get ready for an action-packed game that should light up the scoreboard.
Let's talk about Carlos Carrasco first. The Mets' pitcher has a history of games going over the total when he's on the mound, and that's not by accident. While Carrasco has an impressive repertoire of pitches and can be a force on the mound, there are times when he allows opponents to score runs. Combine that with the Brewers' offense, which has shown some spark early in the season, and you've got the perfect recipe for a high-scoring affair.
Now, let's shift our focus to Freddy Peralta, the Brewers' starting pitcher for today's game. Peralta has been effective against the Mets in his career, but that doesn't mean this game is destined for a low score. Much like Carrasco, Peralta's starts have a profitable history of going over the total. With the Mets' powerful lineup, including the likes of Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Francisco Lindor, there's no shortage of run-scoring potential.
It's also worth noting that both teams' offenses have underperformed so far this season, which might make them hungry for a breakout game. The Brewers' top three in the lineup have combined for only two hits in their first at-bats of the game, while the Mets' top hitters have had limited success against Peralta. This is the perfect opportunity for both teams to prove themselves and light up the scoreboard.
Sure, you might be thinking that there's a chance for a no-run first inning (NRFI) with these pitchers on the mound, but don't let that distract you from the bigger picture. We're talking about a full nine innings of baseball here, and both teams have the firepower to make up for a potentially slow start. Plus, with a combined game total of 8, there's plenty of wiggle room for both teams to contribute to a high score.
If you're still not convinced, let's take a look at some stats from the Athletics and their opponents. The A's have had a rough start to the season offensively, with a team batting average of .178 and an OPS of .511, but they've shown resilience in the past. In games where they've faced similar pitching matchups, they've been able to bounce back and contribute to high-scoring games. Their opponents, on the other hand, have had their share of struggles but have also shown the ability to put runs on the board when it counts.
So, what does all this mean for sports bettors and fans? It means that today's game between the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair that should easily surpass the combined game total of 8. Sure, both teams have talented pitchers on the mound, but history has shown that when Carrasco and Peralta pitch, the runs tend to pile up. Don't miss out on this opportunity to witness an exciting showdown and potentially cash in on the over.
Remember, there's no such thing as a "sure thing" or "safe bet" in sports, but the data and history surrounding this matchup certainly point to a high probability of a high-scoring game. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks as the Mets and Brewers battle it out on the field.
SF Giants F5 ML (+110)
The San Francisco Giants are primed to snatch a victory against the Chicago White Sox, as history suggests fading Michael Kopech could yield profitable results.
As the San Francisco Giants gear up to face the Chicago White Sox in a highly anticipated matchup, all eyes are on Michael Kopech, the White Sox pitcher who's been making waves in the MLB. But before you go all-in on Kopech, consider this: fading the young hurler has historically proven to be a profitable strategy, and with the Giants' solid lineup, they're in an excellent position to capitalize on this trend.
First, let's dive into the numbers behind fading Kopech. Since his debut in 2018, the 26-year-old righty has shown flashes of brilliance, but he's also been inconsistent at times. In 2021, Kopech posted a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 69.1 innings, with 95 strikeouts and 36 walks. While these stats are respectable, they don't paint the full picture of his performance.
Digging deeper, Kopech's opponents have had a .241 batting average against him, with a .325 on-base percentage and a .429 slugging percentage. Additionally, Kopech has allowed 1.30 home runs per nine innings, which could spell trouble against a Giants lineup that ranked third in the MLB last season with 241 total homers.
Now, let's talk about the Giants and their potent offense. The team is coming off a stellar 2021 campaign in which they finished with the best record in the majors at 107-55, and their bats were a significant factor in their success. With players like Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski, and LaMonte Wade Jr. setting the tone, the Giants are a force to be reckoned with at the plate.
Crawford, the veteran shortstop, enjoyed a career year in 2021, hitting .298 with 24 homers and 90 RBIs. Yastrzemski, the outfielder, contributed 25 home runs and 72 RBIs, while Wade provided a spark at the top of the lineup with a .253 average, 18 homers, and 56 RBIs. These bats, along with the rest of the Giants' lineup, have the potential to make Kopech's day on the mound a rough one.
But it's not just the Giants' offense that makes them a solid pick in this matchup. Their pitching staff, led by ace Logan Webb, has the ability to stifle the White Sox's bats. Webb, who is coming off a breakout 2021 season with a 3.03 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 158 strikeouts in 148.1 innings, will be tasked with neutralizing a potent White Sox lineup headlined by sluggers like Jose Abreu and Luis Robert.
Moreover, the Giants' bullpen has been a reliable asset in recent years, ranking fourth in the majors with a 3.31 ERA in 2021. With a strong group of relievers, including Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, the Giants have the arms to shut down the White Sox in the late innings.
Lastly, it's worth mentioning the managerial prowess of Gabe Kapler, who led the Giants to their remarkable 2021 campaign. Kapler's ability to make data-driven decisions and effectively manage his roster has been instrumental in the team's success. With his guidance, the Giants can navigate any challenges that come their way in this matchup against the White Sox.
While Michael Kopech has shown potential, his track record suggests that fading him could be a wise move, especially when facing a formidable opponent like the San Francisco Giants. With their powerful offense, solid pitching staff, and a savvy manager at the helm, the Giants are well-equipped to secure a victory against the Chicago White Sox in this Windy City showdown. So, bettors, don't be afraid to ride the Giants wave in this upcoming clash.
Cubs/Reds NRFI (-105)
Drew Smyly (CHI) - 18-4 NRFI Record in 2022, 10-3 on the road.
Connor Overton (CIN) - 4-0 NRFI Record in 2022
Cubs 74% NRFI record on the road in 2022
Reds 75% Home NRFI record in 2022
MIN TWINS F5 ML (-120)
The Minnesota Twins are primed to dominate the Miami Marlins in their upcoming clash, and fading Johnny Cueto is the key to unlocking betting success.
If you're looking for a solid bet in the world of Major League Baseball, look no further than the Minnesota Twins when they face off against the Miami Marlins. The Twins have been on fire lately, and with their current momentum, it's hard to see them slowing down anytime soon. One of the main reasons for their success, and why you should be locking in your bets on them, is the historically profitable strategy of fading Johnny Cueto.
Cueto, the Marlins' starting pitcher, has had his share of struggles in the past. And while no one doubts his talent, it's evident that he's not quite at the level of the Twins' high-powered lineup. Minnesota's hitters have been crushing the ball lately, and they're showing no signs of letting up. With their potent offense, they're more than capable of overcoming any challenge Cueto might throw their way.
One of the biggest reasons the Twins are set to conquer the Marlins is their incredible recent performance. In their last game against the Royals, Joey Gallo went 3-for-4 with two home runs, a double, a walk, four RBI, and three runs scored. This impressive stat line is just a taste of what the Twins' offense is capable of, and it's only a matter of time before they unleash their full potential on the Marlins.
Not to mention the Twins' pitching staff, which has been lights out lately. In their win over Kansas City, Joe Ryan allowed just one run on three hits and two walks over six innings, racking up six strikeouts in the process. This kind of dominant performance is exactly what you want to see from your starting pitcher, and it's clear that the Twins have the arms to shut down the Marlins' offense.
But let's dive deeper into why fading Cueto is such a profitable strategy. Over his career, Cueto has posted a 3.47 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, numbers that are respectable but far from elite. When you compare these stats to the Twins' potent lineup, it's easy to see why betting against Cueto can lead to big returns.
Minnesota's offense has been a force to be reckoned with, boasting a .261 team batting average and a .335 on-base percentage. These numbers are well above the league average, and they've been even better as of late. In their past three games, the Twins have scored a combined 24 runs, a testament to their offensive prowess.
Moreover, the Twins have been exceptional against right-handed pitchers like Cueto. With a .278 team batting average and a .355 on-base percentage against righties, it's evident that they have no problem handling pitchers of Cueto's caliber. To put it simply, the numbers don't lie, and they all point to the Twins coming out on top in this matchup.
But let's not forget about Minnesota's bullpen, which has been solid as well. Emilio Pagan may have allowed a run in his last outing, but he's still a reliable reliever who can help lock down the late innings for the Twins. And with Jhoan Duran appearing to be the favorite for save opportunities, the Twins have the arms to close out games with confidence.
There's plenty of evidence to suggest that the Minnesota Twins are well-positioned to take down the Miami Marlins in their upcoming game. With their red-hot offense and formidable pitching staff, the Twins are a force to be reckoned with, and fading Johnny Cueto is a historically profitable strategy that's bound to pay off. So, if you're looking to make a smart bet on this MLB showdown, put your money on the Minnesota Twins and watch them crush the competition.
Twins/Marlins u8 (-120)
Today's MLB showdown between the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins is primed to be a low-scoring affair, with Johnny Cueto leading the charge for the home team in a game that's bound to stay under the combined game total.
As the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins gear up for their epic face-off, all eyes are on Johnny Cueto, the Marlins' ace pitcher who's got a knack for crushing it in home games. Looking at the stats and trends for this matchup, it's fair to say we could be in for a treat, with the combined game total likely to stay on the low side. So, for all you betting enthusiasts out there, it's time to dig into the deets and see why this game is shaping up to be a low-scoring bonanza.
First off, let's talk about Johnny Cueto. The Marlins' hurler has had a pretty impressive career thus far, especially when it comes to pitching in the comfort of his own ballpark. It's no secret that pitchers tend to fare better at home, and Cueto is no exception to the rule. His history of success in home games is a testament to his ability to feed off the energy of the home crowd and use it to his advantage on the mound.
With Cueto in top form, it's likely that the Marlins will have a solid defensive performance, which is crucial when it comes to keeping the game total low. A pitcher who can keep the opposition's bats in check is a game-changer, and Cueto's home game prowess suggests he's more than capable of doing just that.
Now, let's dive into some data-driven action. Historically, games in which the home starting pitcher excels have a tendency to go under the combined game total. This makes sense when you think about it – a strong performance from the starting pitcher means fewer runs scored by the opposition, resulting in a lower overall game total. So, if Cueto brings his A-game, as he usually does at home, we can expect the Twins and Marlins to rack up fewer runs than you might expect.
Of course, we can't just focus on Cueto – the Twins' lineup will also play a part in determining the game total. While the Twins certainly have their fair share of offensive firepower, they'll be up against a Marlins pitching staff that's been performing well lately, as evidenced by their recent games. With guys like Rogers, Cabrera, and Luzardo holding their own on the mound, the Marlins' pitching staff is no joke. So, even if Cueto were to get into a jam, there's a decent chance the Marlins' bullpen could step up to keep the score low.
Finally, let's not forget about the Marlins' own offense. While they've had some bright moments, like Cooper's hot start and Chisholm's clutch home run, they've also had their fair share of struggles. With guys like De La Cruz, Segura, and Fortes still trying to find their groove, it's not a given that the Marlins will light up the scoreboard today.
So, when you put it all together – Cueto's home game success, the historical trend of low-scoring games with strong home starting pitchers, the Marlins' solid pitching staff, and their offense's hit-or-miss performance – it's pretty clear that today's game between the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins is set up to be a low-scoring affair. For those of you looking to place a wager, it might be wise to consider betting the under on the combined game total. But, as always, remember that there are no guarantees in sports betting – so bet responsibly and enjoy the game!
PIT Pirates F5 ML (+130)
As the Pittsburgh Pirates face off against the Boston Red Sox in their upcoming MLB game, smart bettors should consider backing the Pirates for a profitable outcome.
In the unpredictable world of sports betting, it's crucial to stay on top of the trends and make informed decisions. That's why today, we're going to discuss why putting your money on the Pittsburgh Pirates in their upcoming game against the Boston Red Sox is a move that could pay off big time.
First and foremost, let's talk about the man on the mound for the Red Sox: Kutter Crawford. The young pitcher has shown some flashes of potential in his career so far, but he's not exactly a dominant force on the hill. In fact, history has shown that fading Crawford – that is, betting against him when he's starting – has been a profitable strategy for savvy bettors.
Now, it's important to note that no pitcher is a sure thing in this game, and we're not suggesting that Crawford is destined for failure. However, when it comes to sports betting, it's all about finding value and playing the odds. And in this case, there's a solid argument to be made for why the Pirates are in a good position to capitalize on Crawford's inconsistencies.
The Pirates have been showing some promising signs recently, with key players stepping up and making an impact. In particular, their bullpen has been on fire, with reliever Rob Zastryzny making headlines for his impressive performance in his MLB debut. Having a strong bullpen can be a game-changer, and it's something that could give the Pirates an edge in this matchup.
Additionally, the Pirates have been playing with a sense of urgency and grit, as evidenced by their recent series against the Cincinnati Reds. They've shown that they can compete with tough opponents and come out on top. With this level of determination and intensity, it's not hard to imagine the Pirates giving the Red Sox a run for their money.
Another factor to consider is the Pirates' lineup, which has been producing offensively at key moments in games. Players like Ji Hwan Bae have been getting regular playing time and making the most of it, which bodes well for the team's ability to put runs on the board. When you mix a capable offense with a strong bullpen, you've got a recipe for success.
Of course, it's worth mentioning that the Red Sox are no pushovers either. They have a talented roster and have been playing well recently. However, when you consider all of the factors at play, there's a strong case to be made for the Pirates being undervalued in this matchup, making them a smart bet for those looking to find an edge in the sports betting market.
While there are no guarantees in the world of sports betting, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that the Pittsburgh Pirates are in a good position to take down the Boston Red Sox in their upcoming game. From the potential vulnerability of Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford to the Pirates' strong bullpen and gritty performance, betting on Pittsburgh could prove to be a smart and profitable decision.
So, if you're looking to make a wager on this MLB game, don't be afraid to back the underdog Pirates. They've got the tools and the drive to make this matchup one for the ages – and potentially, one that pays off big for those who put their faith in them. Happy betting!
Guardians/A’s o7.5 (-115)
Today's MLB clash between the Oakland Athletics and Cleveland Guardians promises a scoreboard explosion as both teams' pitchers historically fuel high-scoring games.
Buckle up, sports fans, because we're in for a wild ride as the Oakland Athletics and Cleveland Guardians go head-to-head in what's shaping up to be a run-fest. With both James Kaprielian and Zach Plesac taking the mound, bettors should be licking their chops, ready to cash in on the over.
Kaprielian, the A's young hurler, has been showing promise, but his outings have been a goldmine for those wagering on the over. His starts have consistently produced high-scoring games, with the Athletics often finding themselves engaged in slugfests. Kaprielian's fastball and wicked slider combo have earned him some strikeouts, but he's also been prone to giving up the long ball. In today's game, he'll face a Guardians lineup that's been feasting on fastballs lately, so we could see some fireworks.
On the other side, the Guardians are sending Zach Plesac to the bump, and he hasn't exactly been a model of consistency either. Plesac has shown flashes of brilliance, but he's also had his fair share of rough outings where he's been tagged for runs. His heavy reliance on his sinker has led to some hard-hit balls, and the A's are no strangers to crushing sinkers. With Plesac's tendency to struggle with command at times, the A's lineup could be poised for a big day at the plate.
But it's not just the pitchers who contribute to the high-scoring affairs. Both the Athletics and the Guardians have lineups that can put up crooked numbers in a hurry. The A's have been swinging hot bats, with their middle-of-the-order hitters like Matt Olson and Ramon Laureano ready to pounce on any mistake. The Guardians, meanwhile, have been getting contributions from up and down the lineup, with Franmil Reyes and José Ramírez leading the charge. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, and bettors would be wise to take note.
Data-driven bettors already know that games featuring either Kaprielian or Plesac have a profitable history of going over the total. When these two young hurlers take the mound, it's like a green light for the batters to start racking up runs. With both teams' lineups capable of putting up big numbers and the pitchers' tendencies to give up runs, this game has "over" written all over it.
Now, we're not saying it's a lock, because nothing in sports betting is ever a sure thing. But if you're looking to place a wager on today's game, the over seems like a solid play, given the history of high-scoring games when either Kaprielian or Plesac takes the hill.
So, as you settle in to watch this matchup, keep an eye on the scoreboard and prepare for a high-octane showdown between the Oakland Athletics and the Cleveland Guardians. With a history of run-heavy games featuring these pitchers and the potent lineups on both sides, today's game is shaping up to be an exhilarating ride that'll have bettors on the edge of their seats. Don't miss out on the action – and the potential payday that comes with it.
OAK A’s F5 ML (+125) – F5 Fades
The Oakland Athletics are primed to emerge victorious in their upcoming MLB showdown against the Cleveland Guardians, as fading Zach Plesac will prove to be historically profitable for bettors.
As a young, data-driven sports analyst, I'm all about diving deep into the numbers and stats that can make or break a game. For the upcoming MLB face-off between the Oakland Athletics and the Cleveland Guardians, there's one key factor that makes the A's a solid pick for victory: the historical profitability of fading Zach Plesac, the Guardians' starting pitcher.
But first, let's take a closer look at the Oakland Athletics' performance so far in the season. After a rather slow start with a .178 team batting average and a .511 OPS, the A's have managed to score only 3 runs in their first three games. However, they haven't scored before the 5th inning in any of their games, which suggests they could be due for an early breakout in their upcoming match against the Guardians.
Now, let's shift our focus to Zach Plesac, the Guardians' starting pitcher for this game. In 2022, Plesac had a solid season, but his performance in the first inning left a bit to be desired. Opponents hit .214 against him in the opening frame, which could be an opportunity for the A's top 3 hitters, who so far have a combined batting average of .193, to turn the tide in their favor.
On the other side of the diamond, the Athletics will be putting James Kaprielian on the mound. Kaprielian had an up-and-down 2022 season, with a 5.09 ERA in the first half and a 3.32 ERA in the second half. Despite his struggles, one constant remained: his impressive first-inning performance. Kaprielian posted a 2.08 ERA and held opponents to a .174 batting average in the opening frame. This could prove crucial in keeping the Guardians at bay early on, providing the A's with a chance to claim an early lead.
Fading Zach Plesac has historically been a profitable strategy for bettors, and this game looks like it could be another notch in that record. The combination of the A's potential for an early offensive breakthrough and Kaprielian's consistent first-inning performance creates a compelling case for Oakland to emerge victorious in this match-up.
But what about the Cleveland Guardians? While they certainly have talent on their roster, their reliance on Plesac's pitching could be their downfall in this game. If the A's manage to exploit his first-inning weaknesses, the Guardians may struggle to recover and find themselves playing catch-up for the rest of the game.
Looking at the broader context of this match-up, it's important to remember that baseball, like all sports, is inherently unpredictable. While the data and statistics point towards an Oakland victory, nothing is certain in the world of sports betting. That said, the compelling case for the A's to triumph over the Guardians, fueled by the historical success of fading Plesac, makes this a bet worth considering.
The upcoming MLB game between the Oakland Athletics and the Cleveland Guardians looks to be an exciting match-up with clear opportunities for bettors. Fading Zach Plesac has proven profitable in the past, and with the A's due for an early offensive breakout and Kaprielian's solid first-inning performance, the stage is set for Oakland to claim a hard-earned victory. So, buckle up, baseball fans – this is a game you won't want to miss!
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