We are 102-78-14 on the young MLB season. We've got 8 picks for today's MLB slate from predictive model. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
NYY Yankees/MIN Twins o7.5 (-115)
Let's not forget that both these teams have cleared the 7.5 total runs mark in three of their last five games, so we're not exactly going out on a limb here. But for the doubters out there, some juicy stats will surely get you on board with this over.
First, let's talk about the Yankees' offense. Sure, they have been stifled by Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, but this is a team that's loaded with sluggers, and they're not going to stay quiet for long. When you've got guys like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and DJ LeMahieu in your lineup, home runs are always in the cards. And tonight, I believe the Bronx Bombers will live up to their name and put on a show at Target Field.
Now, regarding the Twins' pitcher, Kenta Maeda, he is 0-3 with a 4.15 ERA. Against a Yankees lineup that's hungry for redemption and packed with power, Maeda's low-90's fastball and vulnerability to the long ball could spell trouble.
On the other side of the coin, we've got Domingo German – an intriguing pitcher who's been around average this season. But let's not overlook the fact that he's facing a Twins lineup that's more than capable of putting up runs in bunches. Minnesota's offense, led by the likes of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler, can make any pitcher's night a nightmare if they're firing on all cylinders.
Moreover, German has had some experience against the Twins this season, so they'll have a decent idea of what to expect from the right hander. And while Domingo has been hit or miss, he's not exactly an untouchable ace – so don't be shocked if the Twins put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight.
Taking all this into account, it seems like the perfect storm for an offensive outburst in this Yankees-Twins showdown. Both lineups are stacked with home run threats, both pitching staffs are vulnerable to big innings, and both teams have shown the ability to put up runs in bunches recently.
So, when you're scrolling through the sportsbook looking for a tasty wager, don't sleep on the over 7.5 total runs. This game has all the makings of a slugfest, and you'll want to be a part of the action when the fireworks start flying.
Just remember, there's no such thing as a "sure thing" or "safe bet" – but with the context and data at hand, the over 7.5 total runs in this Yankees-Twins matchup looks like a solid play. So, buckle up and get ready for a high-scoring affair at Target Field tonight. After all, who doesn't love a good home run party?
Diamondbacks -1.5 (-125) & Diamondbacks F5 -1 (-120)
First and foremost, let's talk pitchers. Arizona's got their star Zac Gallen stepping up to the plate today, and the dude's been absolutely crushing it this season. With an average of more than six innings pitched in his five starts so far, Gallen is proving to be a force to be reckoned with. His impressive WAR of 1.2 is a testament to his impact on the team's success, and his ability to strike out 11.2 batters per nine innings is just another cherry on top.
On the flip side, we've got Ryan Yarbrough making his first start of the season for the Royals. While it's always a bit of a wildcard when a pitcher steps up for their first start, Yarbrough isn't exactly inspiring confidence. With a current WAR of -0.3 and an abysmally low strikeout rate of just 3.46 per nine innings, it's hard to see him holding his own against the D-Backs' relentless offense.
To make matters worse for Yarbrough, his xERA (expected ERA) sits at an ugly 6.75, which doesn't bode well for his performance today. In comparison, Gallen boasts an xERA of 2.33, further solidifying his status as the top dog in this matchup. It's pretty clear that when it comes to the starting pitchers in this game, Arizona's got a significant advantage.
Now, let's not forget about the rest of the team. The Diamondbacks have been showing promise this season, despite a recent rough patch. If they can rally their offense and capitalize on Yarbrough's inexperience, they'll be in a prime position to snag a victory and cover that -1.5 spread.
While the Royals have had their share of struggles, it's important to remember that anything can happen in baseball. That being said, given the glaring disparity between the two starting pitchers and the momentum the D-Backs bring to the table, it's hard not to favor Arizona in this matchup.
So, to all my fellow sports lovers and betting enthusiasts, keep your eyes peeled for this game. If you're looking for a solid wager, consider taking the Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 today against the Kansas City Royals. With Gallen's arm and Yarbrough's rust, the D-Backs are in prime position to come out on top and make a statement. Just remember, there's no such thing as a sure thing, but with the data in our favor, this matchup should be an interesting one to watch.
SEA Mariners ML (-120) & SEA Mariners F5 ML (-120)
With both teams having their share of ups and downs this season, it's the pitching that will make all the difference. Enter Logan Gilbert, the Mariners' ace, who's been nothing short of electric when he's on top of his game.
Though Gilbert's 2023 performance has been a bit of a rollercoaster, the stats show that he's on the verge of greatness. With an impressive xERA of 2.33 compared to Phillies' pitcher Taijuan Walker's 4.04, it's clear that he's got the edge in this matchup. But what's even more striking is his ability to silence opposing hitters. Gilbert boasts a whopping 11.12 strikeouts per 9 innings and has an exceptional walk rate of just 1.59 batters per 9 innings. Compare that to Walker, who's been struggling with control, walking 5.06 batters per 9 innings, and it's easy to see why the Mariners have a significant advantage in this game.
The Mariners-Phillies showdown is poised to be a classic battle of the aces, but what sets Gilbert apart is his ability to keep the ball in the park. His ground ball rate has skyrocketed this season, and when you combine that with his decreased walk rate, it's evident that he's making it difficult for opposing batters to get on base. This will be crucial against a Phillies offense that's been thriving against right-handed pitching, thanks to sluggers like Brandon Marsh and Kyle Schwarber.
On the other hand, the Phillies' Taijuan Walker has been a reliable starter but hasn't shown the same level of consistency as Gilbert. His fastball averages a mere 93.9 mph, and his offspeed pitches have been deemed hittable, making it tough for him to rack up strikeouts. While he's been able to hold his own against weaker offenses, the Mariners have the potential to make him pay if he's not on his A-game.
So, what does this all mean for the Mariners-Phillies matchup? Simply put, the scales are tipped in favor of Seattle, and it all boils down to the pitching prowess of Logan Gilbert. Sure, the Phillies have a powerful offense and a solid bullpen with the likes of Gregory Soto, Craig Kimbrel, and Jose Alvarado, but if Gilbert can keep them at bay, the Mariners have a clear path to victory.
Moreover, Seattle's offense shouldn't be underestimated. Despite ranking 26th in batting average, they have the potential to come out swinging against Walker and turn this game into a slugfest. And with Citizens Bank Park known for producing some high-scoring affairs, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Mariners could light up the scoreboard.
In summary, the Seattle Mariners are well-equipped to take down the Philadelphia Phillies in their upcoming MLB duel. The key to their success lies in the dominant performance of Logan Gilbert, who's not only striking out batters left and right but also keeping them off the bases. Combine that with the potential for their offense to come alive against Taijuan Walker, and you've got a recipe for a Mariners win.
CHI Cubs F5 ML (-110) & Padres/Cubs u7.5 (-105)
I've got my eyes on the numbers, and I'm here to tell you why the under is the savvy play for tonight's Cubs-Padres game. With both teams stepping up to the plate, one might think we're in for a high-scoring spectacle. However, the stats tell a different story. So, buckle up and get ready for a deep dive into why this game is destined to go under the total.
Now, let's analyze the bats. While the Cubs' Yan Gomes has been on fire lately, racking up 4 hits in a game, including a homer and 3 RBIs, he's just one man in a lineup that's been struggling to find consistency. The Padres, on the other hand, have been experiencing their own offensive woes, with their bats going silent for extended periods. These lackluster performances from both teams' offenses only boost the case for the under.
Another crucial factor to consider is the bullpen. The relief corps for both teams have been making a name for themselves this season, with the Cubs' Michael Rucker and the Padres' Ray Kerr showcasing their ability to shut down their opposition. These relievers have displayed a knack for getting out of high-pressure situations, like the recent game where Rucker came in to close out the win for the Cubs. With these two teams' bullpens coming in clutch, expect the late innings to be a low-scoring affair.
But wait, there's more! The game's being played at the Cubs' iconic Wrigley Field, and we all know how unpredictable the wind can be in the Windy City. A gusty night could very well mean a tough time for long balls, keeping runs at a premium and solidifying the under as the smart choice.
So, there you have it, folks. With a combination of strong pitching, struggling offenses, lockdown bullpens, and the potential for some Chicago wind, tonight's Cubs vs. Padres showdown is set to be a low-scoring battle that'll keep us on the edge of our seats. Throw in the fact that the line is set at 7.5 runs, and it's clear that the under is where the value lies.
SF Giants ML (-110)
The 2023 MLB season hasn't been kind to the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants so far, with both teams entering Wednesday's game sporting losing records. However, for those looking to place their bets on the outcome, the Giants appear to have the edge in this matchup, thanks in part to the impressive form of starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani.
DeSclafani has bounced back from an injury-riddled 2022 season with a performance reminiscent of his 2021 National League West-winning campaign. Averaging six innings per start, he's boasting a 2.64 ERA and has issued just two walks in his four starts thus far. His ability to limit walks – giving up a mere 0.75 per nine innings – is a testament to his control on the mound, while his .254 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) indicates that opponents aren't getting many solid hits against him.
On the other hand, the Cardinals' Steven Matz has had a rocky start to the season, going 0-3 with an unsightly 6.55 ERA. His difficulties with control are evident in his 4.09 walks per nine innings, and his .373 BABIP suggests that batters are making solid contact when they do manage to put the ball in play. Matz's struggles have only intensified since joining the Cardinals in 2022, as evidenced by his 5.56 ERA and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings across 19 appearances for the team.
The Giants' powerful lineup is poised to take advantage of Matz's vulnerabilities, particularly when it comes to the long ball. Entering Tuesday, San Francisco ranked third in MLB in home runs per game, with eight different players having slugged at least three dingers apiece. This could spell trouble for Matz, who has allowed at least four runs in three of his four starts this season.
Meanwhile, it's worth noting that the Cardinals' offense has been far less potent on the road. While they boast the league's second-best home batting average at .286, their .238 average away from home ranks just 20th. This disparity could create an uphill battle for the Cardinals' lineup as they face DeSclafani in the Bay Area.
In addition to the pitching matchup, the Giants' overall performance has been more consistent than the Cardinals'. While both teams have struggled to find their footing this season, the Giants have shown glimpses of their 2021 form, whereas the Cardinals have yet to establish a clear identity. This, coupled with DeSclafani's diligence on the mound, should give the Giants the edge they need to secure a victory on Wednesday.
The San Francisco Giants are the team to back in this MLB clash, given the compelling matchup of Anthony DeSclafani against the St. Louis Cardinals' lineup. DeSclafani's ability to limit walks and keep opponents from making solid contact, combined with Matz's ongoing struggles, paints a picture of a game that should tilt in the Giants' favor. With a powerful lineup ready to capitalize on Matz's weaknesses and a more consistent overall performance, San Francisco is primed to come out on top in this battle of the underdogs.
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