3-0 yesterday, 88-63-10 on the MLB season. 7 picks for today's MLB slate from predictive model. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
Dodgers/Cubs u9.5 -115
The Dodgers are coming off a Game 1 victory in the series, with their young sensation Julio Urias taking the mound, boasting an impressive 1.90 ERA through four starts. On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Drew Smyly, who has shaken off a rough first outing to give up just one earned run in each of his last two starts.
Just four days ago, we witnessed this exact matchup at Dodger Stadium, with Smyly and Urias facing off in a tight 3-2 victory for the Cubs. Both pitchers showcased their ability to silence the opposition's potent lineup, setting the stage for another potential low-scoring showdown. In fact, the last two starts for Smyly and the last four for Urias have seen their opponents score three or fewer runs – a testament to their dominance on the mound.
While both the Dodgers and Cubs boast powerful offenses, the real story here is the pitching. Urias has emerged as the Dodgers' ace, with the team going 3-1 in games he's started. Meanwhile, Smyly has settled into a groove after a bumpy beginning to the season, proving he can hang with the big guns. It's this pitching prowess that leads me to believe we're in for a game with limited offensive fireworks.
And speaking of fireworks, let's talk about the recent trends for both teams when it comes to the over/under. The total has gone under in five of LA's last six games, and in four of Chicago's last five. With the total still slightly elevated due to the offensive capabilities of both squads, there's plenty of value to be found in betting the under.
Now, I'm not saying this game will be devoid of excitement, but rather that it'll be a showcase in elite pitching. Both Urias and Smyly have demonstrated their ability to keep big bats in check, and with the way they've been pitching lately, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them do it again. This is the type of game where every run counts, and one timely hit could make all the difference in the world.
So, if you're a fan of pitching duels, defensive gems, and nail-biting finishes, this is the game for you. And for all you savvy bettors out there, keep an eye on the under, as this matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Just remember, no bet is ever a "sure thing" and anything can happen in the world of sports.
Rays F5 ML -155
With a phenomenal 16-3 record and a jaw-dropping +83 run differential, the Tampa Bay Rays are on fire this season, and the Chicago White Sox are about to feel the heat. The Rays' explosive start is nothing short of historic, as they boast the largest run differential through 19 games in the modern-baseball era. When these titans take on the White Sox in a three-game series, there's no doubt the Rays will be the ones walking away with the W.
But it's not just their impressive record that makes the Rays the team to watch. They lead the majors with an astounding 42 home runs and 133 runs scored, proving that their offensive prowess is a force to be reckoned with. Rays manager Kevin Cash has every reason to be confident in his team, stating, "We're doing good things. Hopefully, we just continue." If the Rays maintain their blistering pace, the White Sox are in for a world of hurt.
On the other hand, the Chicago White Sox have had a rocky start to the season, still chasing that elusive first series win. With a 0-5-1 record in series play, the White Sox have struggled to find their footing, and their upcoming clash with the Rays won't make that task any easier. White Sox manager Pedro Grifol remains optimistic, however, saying, "I trust these guys. I trust the work they're putting in. We just have to keep going, keep battling." But with the Rays' current form, this battle will be an uphill one for the White Sox.
The White Sox's recent struggles have been compounded by the absence of key players Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada, who have missed the past eight and nine games, respectively. Anderson, a two-time American League All-Star, and Moncada, who batted .315 with 25 home runs in 2019, provided some much-needed firepower to the White Sox lineup. Their absence has been keenly felt, with the team averaging just 3.4 runs in the nine games since they last played together on April 9.
Despite their challenges, Grifol remains supportive of his players, saying, "These guys aren't going up there trying to make outs. They're preparing and they're going up there to compete and it's not happening." But even with their best efforts, the White Sox will be hard-pressed to match the offensive juggernaut that is the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays, on the other hand, have been on a home run tear, going yard in every game this season. They're just one game shy of tying the major league record of 20 straight games with a homer to start the season, set by the Seattle Mariners in 2019. Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe attributes their success to the team's infectious energy, saying, "Hitting is extremely contagious, and it feels like when one guy gets going, the next guy just wants to hop on the train and keep it rolling." It's this relentless drive that makes the Rays a formidable opponent for the White Sox.
Taking the mound for the White Sox in the series opener is Michael Kopech, who sports a 0-2 record and a 6.32 ERA. Kopech has shown promise in his last two starts, but with the Rays' lineup firing on all cylinders, he'll need to bring his A-game to keep them in check. Kopech has faced the Rays once before in his MLB career, throwing five scoreless innings in a 3-2 win on April 16, 2022. However, with the Rays' current form, this matchup could prove to be a different story.
The Rays will counter with reliever Calvin Faucher, who is making his second straight start and could potentially pitch up to four innings. Faucher's one scoreless inning of relief against the White Sox in his career doesn't provide much insight, but with the Rays' dominant lineup backing him up, he's in a strong position to help secure another victory for his team.
Yankees F5 ML -130
The Yankees are gearing up for an explosive showdown against the Toronto Blue Jays, and we're all set to witness a slugfest at Yankee Stadium. For those who are in the know, Yusei Kikuchi's high barrel percentage and exit velocity are going to be the crucial factors that will make this game a thrilling one for the Yanks.
Now, let's dive into the nitty-gritty of why the Yankees are the team to back in this matchup. For starters, the Bombers have a history of putting up decent numbers against Kikuchi. That's right, this isn't their first rodeo, and they've shown time and time again that they can handle whatever Kikuchi throws at them. With a lineup that's had success against the lefty in the past, it's only logical to expect more of the same, especially on their home turf.
But what exactly makes Kikuchi's stats so exploitable for the Yankees? It's all about the barrel percentage and exit velocity, my friends. For those who might not be familiar with these terms, the barrel percentage is a measure of how often batters make solid contact with the ball, resulting in high exit velocities and launch angles. A high barrel percentage means that Kikuchi is giving up plenty of hard-hit balls, and that's music to the ears of the Yankees' power-hitting lineup.
Additionally, Kikuchi's tendency to allow high exit velocities is another reason why the Yankees are licking their chops. When batters are consistently hitting the ball hard, it increases the likelihood of extra-base hits and home runs, which can quickly turn a close game into a blowout. With the Yankees' explosive lineup, featuring sluggers like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Gleyber Torres, Kikuchi is going to have his hands full trying to contain the Bronx Bombers.
Another aspect to consider is the venue: Yankee Stadium. Known for its hitter-friendly dimensions, this iconic ballpark is a paradise for power hitters. The short right field porch is particularly enticing for left-handed sluggers, who can take advantage of Kikuchi's high barrel percentage and exit velocity to send balls soaring into the stands. This could spell trouble for the Blue Jays' hurler, as the Yankees have a penchant for launching long balls in their home park.
Now, we all know that baseball can be unpredictable, and there's no such thing as a "sure thing" in this sport. However, when you take into account the Yankees' historical success against Kikuchi, combined with his high barrel percentage and exit velocity, and the fact that they'll be playing at Yankee Stadium, it's hard not to feel confident in the Yanks' chances in this matchup.
Marlins F5 ML +115
Let's dive into some stats, shall we? The Marlins have been on fire lately, winning six of their last eight games before slipping in an 11-inning nail-biter against the San Francisco Giants. Meanwhile, the Guardians have struggled during their first homestand, dropping two of three games in both series. They managed to snap a season-high three-game losing streak with a 3-2 victory over the Detroit Tigers, but their inconsistent performance leaves them vulnerable.
Miami's offense has been impressive, with Garrett Cooper hitting safely in four consecutive games and 13 of 17 this season. Although the Marlins struggled in their recent game against the Giants, going 2-for-16 with runners in scoring position, manager Skip Schumaker believes they have what it takes to bounce back. "We had our chances and the right guys up at the right time," Schumaker said, and he's got a point. With the Marlins' firepower and their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, they're primed for a big night against the Guardians.
On the mound, the Marlins have a secret weapon in left-hander Braxton Garrett, who turned in his best performance in his last outing. Garrett allowed just one run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks, earning a no-decision but showing promise as a starting pitcher. With a 3.38 ERA, Garrett will be making his first career start against the Guardians, bringing a fresh approach to the game that could catch Cleveland off guard.
In contrast, the Guardians are sending right-hander Zach Plesac to the mound, sporting a 1-0 record and a 6.92 ERA. While Plesac did secure a win in his last appearance, he allowed four runs (two earned) in just five innings. Plesac hasn't faced the Marlins in his career, and with their potent offense, he may struggle to keep them in check.
In summary, the Miami Marlins have the offensive firepower, a promising young pitcher in Braxton Garrett, and a favorable matchup against the shaky Zach Plesac to secure a victory in their upcoming game. While no game is a sure thing, the Marlins' recent performance and the Guardians' struggles make this a compelling matchup to watch.
Twins F5 -1 +100
As the Minnesota Twins gear up for their three-game series against the Washington Nationals, there's a lot of buzz around the potential for the powerhouse Twins to come out on top, especially when considering the lackluster performance of Nationals' pitcher Trevor Williams. For anyone looking to make a solid bet, the Twins taking down the Nats with a spread of -1 seems like a no-brainer, and here's why.
First and foremost, let's talk about Trevor Williams. A quick dive into his stats reveals some pretty underwhelming numbers, with a low 5.28 strikeouts per 9 innings. This means that Williams isn't exactly a strikeout machine, which could spell trouble for the Nationals when facing an offense like the Twins. With such a lack of strikeouts, there's a good chance that the Twins' hitters will have several opportunities to make contact and drive in runs, putting the Nats in a tough spot.
Adding to the case against Williams is his xERA of 5.14, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence in his ability to shut down opposing offenses. With an xERA this high, it's clear that Williams has been struggling on the mound this season, and the Twins' lineup will likely capitalize on his woes. It's not difficult to imagine the Twins' offense racking up hits and runs against a pitcher who has struggled to keep his ERA in check.
In contrast, the Twins' offense is a force to be reckoned with, and they've shown time and time again that they can put up impressive numbers against struggling pitchers. The combination of their powerful offense and Williams' less-than-stellar pitching should create the perfect storm for the Twins to come out on top and cover the spread.
Moreover, the Nationals' overall performance this season has been far from impressive, with serious concerns about their offense making the headlines as they head into this series against the Twins. With players like Stone Garrett and Alex Call underperforming, it's hard to imagine the Nationals' lineup being able to keep up with the Twins' potent offense, even if Williams somehow manages to exceed expectations.
On the other hand, the Twins have been consistently strong throughout the season, with a solid lineup that can put runs on the board against even the toughest of pitching opponents. When facing a pitcher like Williams, it's easy to see how the Twins could run away with the game, making that -1 spread look like easy money.
Of course, there are no guarantees in sports betting, and anything can happen on any given day. However, when you take a good, hard look at the facts and stats surrounding this matchup, it's hard not to see the Twins as the clear favorite to take down the Nationals and cover the spread.
Angels F5 -1 -125
The key factor in this game is the commanding presence of Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Angels, while the Royals counter with Taylor Clarke, whose recent performances have been less than inspiring.
Shohei Ohtani is not just a dual-threat superstar, but he's also been dominating on the mound in a way that has left batters puzzled and defeated. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) sits at a jaw-dropping .154, displaying his ability to prevent opposing hitters from finding success. Not only that, but Ohtani's pitching has been so on point that he has yet to give up a home run this year – a remarkable feat that speaks volumes about his mastery of the art of pitching.
On the other side of the equation, Taylor Clarke's recent outings have been anything but impressive. With a BABIP of .500, it's clear that Clarke has been struggling to keep hitters at bay. His vulnerability doesn't end there, as he's been allowing a whopping 2.25 HR/9. The numbers don't lie – Clarke's been having a hard time maintaining control, and that spells trouble for the Royals in this matchup.
When it comes to ERA (earned run average), the disparity between the two pitchers is stark. Ohtani boasts an impressive ERA of 0.86, showcasing his ability to limit the damage done by opposing teams. Meanwhile, Clarke's ERA stands at a less-than-stellar 6.75, further highlighting the uphill battle the Royals face in this contest.
But let's not forget about the other players on the field. The Angels' lineup is stacked with talent, and they're more than capable of providing run support for their star pitcher. With the Royals' recent struggles on offense – showcased by their dismal performance in a 12-3 loss to the Rangers – it's hard to see them putting up much of a fight against Ohtani and the Angels' solid defense.
The Royals have also been dealing with injuries, most notably to their pitcher Kris Bubic, who is currently on the injured list with a left flexor strain. This leaves them with a weakened rotation, and they'll be relying on Ryan Yarbrough to work as a bulk reliever after Clarke's likely short stint on the mound. Yarbrough has allowed nine runs with a 4:3 K:BB over nine innings so far this season, which doesn't bode well for Kansas City's chances against the formidable Angels' lineup.
Taking all these factors into account, it's clear that the Los Angeles Angels are in a strong position to come out on top in this matchup. With Ohtani's dominance on the mound, Clarke's struggles, and the Royals' recent offensive woes, it's hard not to see the Angels covering the -1 spread. So, if you're looking for a solid MLB pick, don't sleep on the Los Angeles Angels in this contest. They're primed to take advantage of their strengths and exploit their opponent's weaknesses, making them the team to watch as they take on the Kansas City Royals.
Cardinals F5 ML +110
As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Seattle Mariners, there's plenty of reason to believe that the Cardinals will come out on top in this MLB showdown. The key to their success lies in the pitching matchup, as Steven Matz takes the mound for the Cardinals against the Mariners' George Kirby. Let's break down why this duel tilts the scales in favor of St. Louis.
First off, Steven Matz has been on fire this season, striking out an impressive 9.18 batters per nine innings. This stat alone suggests that he's more than capable of handling the Mariners' lineup. While Seattle has had some standout performances from players like Rodriguez and Gonzales, it's hard to ignore the consistency Matz brings to the table.
On the other hand, George Kirby has shown potential, but the Cardinals' lineup is no easy task. With a mix of power and speed, St. Louis has the ability to break through against Kirby, exploiting any weaknesses he may display. The Cardinals' offense has been clicking lately, and if they can continue to roll, they'll give Kirby a run for his money.
Beyond the mound, the Cardinals have a strong overall roster that can hold their own against the Mariners. In particular, their bullpen has been solid, providing reliable relief when needed. This depth will be crucial in what promises to be a closely contested game and could very well be the deciding factor.
On the Mariners' side, they've faced their fair share of challenges this season. Injuries have taken a toll on key players, such as Moore, Haggerty, and Ray, who are all on the injured list. While some of these players are expected to return soon, their absence could still impact the Mariners' performance in the upcoming game.
Additionally, the Mariners' recent outings have been a mixed bag, with both highs and lows. For example, Munoz has shown promise on the mound, but he's also been inconsistent. Similarly, the team's offense has had its moments, but they've also struggled to string together hits and score runs consistently. This inconsistency could be their downfall against a Cardinals team that has shown an ability to capitalize on their opponents' weaknesses.
Given these factors, it's easy to see why the Cardinals have the edge in this matchup. Steven Matz's strikeout prowess will be a significant challenge for the Mariners' lineup, while the Cardinals' offense should be able to break through against George Kirby. Combine this with the depth of the Cardinals' roster and the challenges facing the Mariners, and it's clear that St. Louis has the upper hand in this game.
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