In the heat of conference tournaments, we've got college basketball games all day. 7 picks from data driven predictive model for today's college basketball slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
Florida/Mississippi State o130.5 (-115)
If you're looking for a value added play, the matchup between Mississippi State and Florida is the perfect opportunity. Both teams have had solid seasons, with the Bulldogs going 20-11 overall and 8-10 in SEC play, and the Gators going 16-15 overall and 9-9 in the SEC. Plus, both teams boast top-tier defenses in terms of defensive efficiency, and Mississippi State plays at one of the slowest tempos in college basketball.
The Gators are 7-6 in non-conference play, and are seventh in the SEC in limiting opponent scoring, allowing 68.6 points per game while holding opponents to 41.2% shooting. The Bulldogs are 8-10 against SEC opponents, and second in the SEC in allowing 60.4 points per game and holding opponents to 39.3% shooting.
Leading the way for the Gators this season is Colin Castleton, who is averaging 16.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. Riley Kugel has also been impressive, averaging 15.6 points and 3.7 rebounds while shooting 51.3% over the past 10 games. For Mississippi State, Dashawn Davis is averaging 8.3 points, 3.4 assists and 1.7 steals, while Tolu Smith has averaged 17.4 points over the last 10 games.
The Gators have gone 4-6 over their last ten games, averaging 72.9 points, 29.4 rebounds, 12.0 assists, 6.5 steals and 3.8 blocks per game while shooting 45.4% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 76.3 points per game. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have gone 7-3 over their last ten games, averaging 67.9 points, 32.4 rebounds, 14.6 assists, 7.7 steals and 2.5 blocks per game while shooting 46.5% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 62.5 points.
Mississippi State and Florida are two of the top defensive teams in the SEC, and they play at two different tempos. With this in mind, the BetSaracen Sportsbook has set the over/under at 130, but I think it's too low. Both teams have the defensive ability to keep the other team in check, but the offensive talent on both sides should be enough to push the total higher. I am taking the over in this game.
Iowa ML (-160)
A lot of eyes are on the Iowa Hawkeyes and Ohio State Buckeyes as they battle it out for Big Ten glory. The Hawkeyes come in with a 19-12 record, 11-9 in Big Ten play, and 8-3 in non-conference games. Iowa averages 80.6 points per game and has outscored their opponents by 6.1 points per game.
The Hawkeyes have a couple of things going for them that give them an edge. First, they play at a faster tempo than their opponents. This gives them an edge in the game, as it makes it harder for the Buckeyes' defense to keep up and gives Iowa more chances to score. Second, the Hawkeyes have a great Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE). This measure takes into account the average points scored per 100 possessions, and the Hawkeyes have an AOE of 112.2, which is higher than Ohio State's AOE of 107.6.
Kris Murray has been leading the charge for Iowa, shooting 34.3% from beyond the arc with 2.3 made 3-pointers per game, and averaging 20.5 points and eight rebounds per game. Tony Perkins has also been balling for the Hawkeyes, shooting 52.3% from the field and averaging 16.0 points over the last 10 games.
The Buckeyes have a 5-15 record against Big Ten opponents and are sixth in the conference in scoring, averaging 72.8 points per game. They're shooting 46.3% from the field. Isaac Likekele is leading the way for the Buckeyes, averaging 3.9 points per game, while Bruce Thornton is averaging 14.1 points over the last 10 games.
The Hawkeyes have the upper hand in this game, with their faster tempo and superior AOE. Plus, they have two solid scorers in Murray and Perkins. Despite the Buckeyes' strengths, such as a better Defensive Efficiency (DE), they're unlikely to be able to keep up with the Hawkeyes. Iowa looks poised to take this game and move closer to their goal of a Big Ten tournament championship—and, more importantly, help us cash this ticket.
San Diego State -8.5 (-115)
As the Mountain West Conference champions, the No. 20 Aztecs are primed to make a deep run in the tournament, and their first test will be against Colorado State on Thursday.
The Aztecs have the higher Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE), meaning they are more efficient in terms of points and possessions. This gives them the edge when it comes to outlasting Colorado State. With six different players appearing in all 30 games this season and three others having played in at least 28 games, the Aztecs have the depth to wear down their opponents. Matt Bradley is the only player averaging double figures in scoring for the Aztecs (13.0), but seven others average from 6.6 to 9.8 points, and seven different players led San Diego in scoring during conference play.
The Aztecs also have the higher Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADE), making them better equipped to limit Colorado State's scoring production. San Diego State was able to beat Colorado State 82-76 in overtime in their first meeting on January 18, and 77-58 in San Diego on February 21. San Diego State also put together a strong defensive performance against New Mexico on February 25, a game in which they won 73-71.
Finally, the Aztecs have the edge with their point guard, Darrion Trammell. After transferring from Seattle, he had high expectations and was able to deliver his best performance in a 73-71 win against New Mexico on February 25, scoring 18 points while knocking down 4 of 9 shots from 3-point distance. San Diego State needs Trammell to shoot better than he did during the season, and his strong performance against New Mexico showed that he is capable of doing that.
With San Diego State's higher AOE, ADE, and home court advantage, along with their depth, health, and Trammell's potential, I am laying the points with San Diego State. The Aztecs have the talent and confidence to make a deep run this March.
Tennessee -11.5 (-115)
The Tennessee Volunteers are locked in to take on the Ole Miss Rebels in the first round of the SEC tournament Wednesday night, and the Vols are looking primed to take the win and cover the spread. Tennessee has a 6.1 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency over Ole Miss and a 14.17 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, giving them a solid edge over the Rebels.
The Volunteers have been led by star guard Santiago Vescovi, who is averaging 16.7 points and 5.8 assists per game. His leadership and tenacity have been essential to Tennessee's success this season, and his ability to create open looks for his teammates has been invaluable. Vescovi has also been a reliable defender, averaging 1.6 steals per game.
The Volunteers have also been bolstered by the emergence of forward E.J. Anosike, who is averaging 11.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. Anosike has been a force on the boards, and his ability to get rebounds in traffic and start fast breaks has been key for Tennessee. He's also been a reliable defender, averaging 1.2 blocks per game.
The Rebels, on the other hand, have been led by guard Matthew Murrell and forward Jaemyn Brakefield. Murrell is averaging 14.9 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, while Brakefield is averaging 10.9 points and 5.7 rebounds. The Rebels have struggled down the stretch, going 2-8 in their last 10 games.
Given the facts, it is clear that Tennessee has the advantage in this matchup. The Vols have the edge in offensive and defensive efficiency, and they have the star power to make them a formidable opponent. With Vescovi and Anosike leading the way, Tennessee is the team to back if you're looking to make some money off this matchup.
Norfolk State -10.5 (-115)
Norfolk State is the value play when they face off against Coppin State. With an impressive 9-point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, the Spartans are primed to outscore the Eagles with ease. This statistic, which measures the points scored per 100 possessions, is a good indicator that Norfolk State will be able to outscore Coppin State significantly.
The Spartans also have a 4.9-point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which measures the points allowed per 100 possessions. This means that Norfolk State's defense is well-equipped to hold off the Eagles' offensive advances.
Furthermore, the Spartans have a very strong record against Coppin State. In the last four games between the two sides, Norfolk State has won by an average of 20.5 points, and each of those games was won by double digits. The most recent matchup between the two sides saw the Spartans win by a whopping 34 points.
So, with all that being said, I'm going with Norfolk State. The Spartans have the stats and the track record to prove that they are well-positioned to win the game by a significant margin.
Maryland -13.5 (-105)
The Maryland Terrapins are taking on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the Big Ten Tournament. The Terrapins have an 11-9 record in Big Ten play and an 11.71 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, which measures the expected number of points a team scores per 100 possessions. With a 10.25 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which measures the expected number of points a team allows per 100 possessions, the Terrapins have the edge to come out on top.
The Terrapins are led by Don Carey, who is averaging 1.5 made 3-pointers per game while shooting 32.2% from beyond the arc. He's complemented by Jahmir Young, who has been averaging 16.3 points and 3.2 assists over the last 10 games. Maryland is also successful in limiting opponents’ scoring, giving up just 63.2 points while holding opponents to 42.4% shooting.
The Golden Gophers, on the other hand, are 2-17 in Big Ten games and are 7-21 against opponents with a winning record. Jamison Battle is shooting 31.7% from beyond the arc with 2.3 made 3-pointers per game, and Dawson Garcia is shooting 49.0% and averaging 12.3 points over the last 10 games.
All signs are pointing to the Terrapins coming out on top with a large margin of victory. With a significant advantage in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Maryland Terrapins are a good value bet to win big against the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
TCU/Kansas State o147.5 (-115)
No. 12 Kansas State and No. 22 TCU are going head-to-head in a high-scoring NCAA matchup. On Thursday, March 9th, the Wildcats and the Horned Frogs will face off in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference tournament in Kansas City, Mo., with NCAA Tournament seeding at stake. Both teams are solidly in the March Madness field, and the winner will have an opportunity to improve upon its current seed.
Kansas State (23-8, 11-7 Big 12) is the No. 3 seed in the Big 12 tournament and could be in line for a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tourney. Under the guidance of Coach Jerome Tang, who was selected the Big 12 Coach of the Year, the Wildcats have defied expectations and posted a 16-1 home record. This success is largely due to the contributions of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson, who were both named first-team all-conference selections.
TCU (20-11, 9-9) is the No. 6 seed in the Big 12 tournament, but could be as high as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite losing key player Mike Miles Jr. to a knee injury early in the season, the Horned Frogs have been able to remain competitive, winning their last game 100-75 against Oklahoma State.
Given Kansas State and TCU's high-octane offensive styles that are counterbalanced by elite defensive efficiency, both teams will have the chance to put up a lot of points. Kansas State and TCU both have strong offensive weapons, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see this game become a shootout. With both squads having something to prove, this NCAA matchup between Kansas State and TCU promises to be an exciting battle that could see you making a trip to #ThePayWindow.
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