2 picks from data driven predictive model for today's NBA slate. I'll be posting player props later. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
CLE Cavaliers/MIA Heat o214.5 (-110)
The Miami Heat have been on fire lately, coming off two straight wins against the Atlanta Hawks. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro lead the Heat, with a 59-point performance coming off their bench in the most recent game against the Hawks. On the other side of the court, the Cleveland Cavaliers are fresh off an impressive 118-114 overtime win against the Boston Celtics. Donovan Mitchell put up an impressive 40 points in the game.
When it comes to the Cavaliers vs. Heat matchup, Donovan Mitchell's talent will be put to the test. He's averaged 21.8 points against the Heat in 12 career games, but that's still a bit lower than his career average of 24.4 points per game. The Heat have been able to contain his shooting percentages, holding him to 42.6 percent from the field, 27.8 percent on 3-pointers, and 70.7 percent on free throws.
The Cavaliers' core four of Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Allen have all started more than 55 games this season. Garland leads the team in scoring with an average of 21.9 points per game, and Mobley leads in rebounds with 9.1. Mobley and Allen combine for an average of 2.6 blocks per game.
Meanwhile, the Heat have three elite scorers in Butler, Adebayo, and Herro. Adebayo leads the team in rebounds with 9.7 per game, and Butler leads the team in steals with 1.9. Unfortunately for the Heat, two of their starters, Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry, have been out due to injury.
It's going to be a tight matchup between the Cavaliers and the Heat. Both teams have strong offensive players and the Heat have an incredibly strong defense. Each of the Heat's last 3 games have gone over this game total line. And 2 of the last 3 Cavaliers' games have gone over this game total line. I expect there to be lots of scoring tonight. I'll take the the over.
WAS Wizards 1H +1.5 (-115)
The Washington Wizards are in a great position to take down the Atlanta Hawks and cover the first half spread of 1.5.
The Washington Wizards have a number of advantages going into this matchup, including a higher Pythagorean rating, a higher effective field goal percentage, and the ability to hold their opponents to a lower effective field goal percentage than the Hawks. The Pythagorean rating for the Wizards is 0.608, while the Hawks sit at 0.575, which indicates that the Wizards are more efficient on both offense and defense.
The Wizards also hold an effective field goal percentage of 55.1, while the Hawks stand at 54.0. This means the Wizards are more efficient when shooting the ball, which could lead to more points scored and a higher chance of covering the spread. Additionally, the Wizards are able to hold their opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 53.3, which is lower than the Hawks' opponent effective field goal percentage of 54.5. This shows that the Wizards have a stronger defense than the Hawks, and it could lead to a lower score from the Hawks and a better chance of covering the spread.
Washington is also on the upswing, having won eight of their last ten games and coming off a thrilling win against the Detroit Pistons. During this matchup, Bradley Beal scored 32 points, surpassing Greg Ballard for the second most steals in franchise history with a career total of 763. The Wizards also have Kristaps Porzingis available for the game, who is one of three players in the league averaging 20 points, eight rebounds, and one block.
On the other hand, the Hawks have been struggling as of late, losing two in a row and posting a 3-3 record since the All-Star break. Despite scoring 100-plus points in 40 straight games, their offensive production has not been enough to come out ahead against teams with stronger defensive abilities, like the Washington Wizards.
All the signs point to a Washington cover. With the Wizards’ higher scoring efficiency, defensive prowess, and their higher Pythagorean rating, they are in prime position to cover this first half spread.
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