4 picks from data driven predictive model for today's college basketball slate. Tough day yesterday, looking to bounce back. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
Massachusetts +2.5 (-110)
The Massachusetts Minutemen are poised to make this one a good value bet. The Minutemen have a strong recent record away from home, with only 8 losses in their last 9 contests away from home, while the Richmond Spiders have lost their last 7 such games. The Spiders have been buoyed by the consistent offensive production of Tyler Burton, who is averaging 18.6 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, but Burton is out with an injury, giving the Minutemen an even greater edge.
The Minutemen have had success in the past against this Richmond team, and with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 109.7 compared to the Spiders' 112.9, I expect them to cover the 2.5 point spread in this matchup. Freshman guard RJ Luis led UMass in the regular season meeting with 23 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists while junior forward Matt Cross added 16 points and 8 boards. Cross has posted team-leading averages of 12.5 points and 6.2 rebounds in his first season with the Minutemen, making him a key component of their success.
Take advantage of this opportunity and put your money on the Minutemen. With the right combination of skill and luck, Massachusetts is in a prime position to take down the Richmond Spiders and cover the spread.
Oral Roberts -10.5 (-110)
Summit League Championship today between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles and North Dakota State Bison. The Golden Eagles are favored by 10.5 points, and they have the stats to back it up. ORU has been on an absolute tear this season, going 18-0 against Summit League opponents and holding an impressive overall record of 29-4. Not only do they lead the Summit League in points per game with 84.0, but they have a 9.7 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, a 4.8 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and a 3.7% lower eFG% over the Bison. ORU also holds a 3.75% higher turnover %.
Max Abmas has been a major offensive weapon for the Golden Eagles, averaging 3.6 made 3-pointers per game and shooting 37.7% from beyond the arc. Abmas is also ORU's leading scorer, averaging 22.1 points per game. Connor Vanover has also been strong in the last 10 games, shooting 52.7% from the field and averaging 12.8 points.
On the other side, NDSU's record in Summit League games is 11-7, and the Bison are 1-0 when they have fewer turnovers than their opponents. The Bison average 11.2 turnovers per game, and have been held to an average of 70.1 points per game over the last 10 games. If Grant Nelson and Boden Skunberg can step up and make some big plays, NDSU might be able to cover the spread. But with all the stats and players in ORU's favor, it's safe to say that the Golden Eagles should be able to win this one.
The Golden Eagles are the better play in the Summit League Championship. Put your money on ORU and let's make some cash together.
Virginia Tech -6.5 (-115)
With a 5.1 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, 6.3 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and a lower eFG% and higher Turnover %, Virginia Tech is primed to make us some money against Notre Dame.
As the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament kicks off, the Hokies look to carry some much-needed momentum into the tournament as they aim for another stunning postseason run. Notre Dame, meanwhile, gears up for one final ride with coach Mike Brey at the helm, looking to salvage a lean season and secure a second straight NCAA Tournament berth.
When these teams meet on Tuesday, Virginia Tech has the edge in stats and numbers, giving them the advantage to bring home the bacon. The Hokies boast a 5.1 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, and a 6.3 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Virginia Tech’s 3-point shooting has been a key factor in their success this season, as they are 8-2 when making at least 10 3-pointers. Additionally, their star shooter Hunter Cattoor has the best 3-point percentage in the ACC.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, has had a tumultuous season, with 11 losses in the regular season, and an 0-12 record away from South Bend, Indiana. Despite the record, the Fighting Irish have been competitive in most of their games, with 11 losses coming within single digits, including five one-possession defeats. Their eFG% and Turnover % are lower and higher, respectively, than Virginia Tech’s, which gives the Hokies an even stronger edge.
Looking back to their first meeting this season, Virginia Tech won 93-87 in South Bend. Grant Basile scored 33 points for the Hokies and Nate Laszewski matched that number for the Irish. Virginia Tech’s success in that game, combined with the statistical edge they carry into this matchup, make them the smart pick for the money.
The Hokies also have the advantage of momentum coming into this tournament, as they have notched consecutive wins for the first time since late January. They capped off the regular season with a strong 82-60 win over Florida State, and with Sean Pedulla scoring a career-high 25 points and hitting six of Virginia Tech's season-high-tying 16 3-pointers, it’s clear that Virginia Tech is capable of putting up points in a hurry.
Despite Notre Dame’s competitive nature throughout the season, Virginia Tech’s statistical edge and recent success makes them the clear favorite to win against the spread and make some green. Their 3-point shooting, momentum, and previous success against Notre Dame should give the Hokies the edge they need to rake in some cash. So, sports betters, it’s time to get your wallets ready and make some money with the Hokies.
Charleston -9.5 (-115)
With the CAA Championship matchup between Charleston and UNC Wilmington coming up, it's time to look at the stats and decide which way to bet. The Cougars have a 9.1 point advantage over UNC Wilmington in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and a 2 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, giving them a clear edge in the matchup.
Charleston's offense is a force to be reckoned with, averaging 81.3 points per game and racking up 10.2 3-pointers per game, which puts them in the top 15 nationally. The Cougars also secure 35.2% of available offensive rebounds, so they're sure to keep their opponents on their toes. On top of that, they're averaging 5.56 more possessions per 40 minutes, so they're sure to give UNC Wilmington a run for their money.
Looking at the defensive side of things, the Seahawks have the upper hand. They lead the conference in creating a turnover on 21.5% of defensive possessions and they're sound in contesting 3-point attempts, allowing opponents to only shoot 30.1% from beyond the arc in conference play. The Seahawks also secure 73.6% of available defensive rebounds, which could be a game-changer.
However, UNC Wilmington's offense is keyed on sophomore forward Trazarien White. White leads the team with 14.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game this season, but it's unlikely that he'll be able to produce the same performance against Charleston's defense.
When it comes down to it, Charleston's offense, combined with their advantage in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, makes them the smart pick to cover the -9 spread against UNC Wilmington. The Seahawks have a strong defense, but the Cougars' offensive game plan should be able to overwhelm them. So, if you're looking to bet on the CAA Championship matchup, put your money on the Cougars and let's ride this money train all the way to #ThePayWindow!
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