5 picks from data driven predictive model for today's NCAAB slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
Charleston -5.5 (-110) vs Towson
On Monday, the Charleston Cougars and Towson Tigers will face off in the CAA Tournament, with the Cougars as the favorites and an over/under of 147.5. This game could be a high-scoring affair and the Cougars are favored to cover the -5.5 spread.
The Cougars have a 3.7 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE). AOE takes into account factors such as field goal percentage, turnovers, and free throw attempts to measure a team’s overall offensive efficiency. The Cougars rank fourth in the CAA in AOE, while the Tigers come in at 11th.
The Cougars also have a 4.6 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADE). ADE looks at factors such as field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, and blocks to measure a team’s overall defensive efficiency. Charleston has been the more efficient defensive team all year and that edge should give them a great chance of covering the spread.
The Cougars also have the advantage when it comes to pace of play. Charleston averages 73.5 possessions per game, while the Tigers average only 67.8. The Cougars’ faster pace of play should create more scoring opportunities for them.
Charleston is also strong from behind the arc, ranking fourth in the CAA shooting 33.9% from three-point range. Jack Miller leads the way for the Cougars, shooting 66.7% from three-point range. This could give the Cougars an edge in this game.
The Cougars have a few players who are playing well lately. Dalton Bolon is averaging 12.8 points per game with 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists, while Ante Brzovic is averaging 12.8 points and 6.7 rebounds in his last ten games.
On the other side, the Tigers have been led by Charles Thompson and Nicolas Timberlake, who are both averaging 12.4 points and 7.9 rebounds, and 19.0 points respectively over their last ten games.
When you look at the numbers and the recent form of both teams, the Cougars have an edge in this game. With their efficient offense and defense, faster pace of play, and strong three-point shooting, I'm expecting the Cougars to cover the -5.5 spread against the Towson Tigers.
Nicholls St -5.5 (-110) vs McNeese St.
The Nicholls State Colonels (16-14, 11-7 Southland) are taking on the McNeese Cowboys (10-22, 6-12 Southland) in the Southland Tournament on Monday night. And BetSaracen has set the line at -5.5 and the over/under at 145.5.
Nicholls State has gone 11-7 against Southland teams, and 5-7 in non-conference play. The Colonels have the advantage in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, leading the Cowboys by 1 and 7.6 points, respectively. Plus, Nicholls State is faster, averaging 4.1 more possessions per 40 minutes.
Leading the Colonels is Lance Amir-Paul, dishing out 2.4 assists per game. He's backed up offensively by Caleb Huffman, averaging 16.3 points and 5.2 rebounds. And Latrell Jones has been a scoring machine over the last ten games, averaging 14.0 points.
McNeese doesn't have the best record when it comes to double-digit losses, at 3-11. But Zach Scott provides a spark with 2.2 made 3-pointers per game, while Christian Shumate is shooting 55.6% and averaging 16.6 points over the last ten games.
It's clear that the Colonels are the better team. So if you're looking to add to your bankroll, bet on Nicholls State to cover the spread against the McNeese Cowboys.
Weber St./Sacramento St. u126.5 (-110)
Tonight's Big Sky Tournament game between the Weber State Wildcats and Sacramento State Hornets is showing good value on the under. Both teams play a slow tempo, ranking 280th and 282nd respectively in college basketball in terms of tempo, and neither team has an efficient offense. Weber State ranks 188th in college basketball in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, while Sacramento State is even lower at 198th.
Weber State has been successful against Big Sky competition, going 12-6 against teams in the conference, and their record in close games is even more impressive. The Wildcats have gone 6-0 in games decided by less than 4 points. However, their record in non-conference play is much weaker, at 5-8.
Sacramento State has been weaker against Big Sky opponents, going 7-11. However, the Hornets have been consistent on offense, scoring 32.7 points per game in the paint and being led by Callum McRae, who averages 10.7 points. Zach Chappell averages 13.4 points per game for Sacramento State, while McRae contributes 13.4 points and 9.4 rebounds over the last 10 games.
For Weber State, Dillon Jones leads the way, averaging 16.6 points, 11 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.5 steals. Steven Verplancken Jr. has been doing well too, averaging 13.3 points over the last 10 games.
Given their slow pace and low efficiency on offense, it's likely that the upcoming game between Weber State and Sacramento State will stay under the game total of 126.5. Neither team has the ability to put up a high number of points, so it's likely that the game will be a low-scoring affair. Take advantage of this opportunity and bet the under.
Idaho St. +5.5 (-120) vs Montana
If you're looking to make a smart bet, Idaho State is the way to go. With an average of 2 more possessions per 40 minutes and a higher offensive rebound percentage and turnover rate than Montana State, Idaho State has a clear edge.
Idaho State plays at a faster tempo than Montana State, giving them more shots and increasing their chances of scoring. With an average of 27.3% on offensive rebounds, Idaho State is more likely to convert rebounds into points. And Idaho State forces turnovers at a higher rate than Montana State, 17.2% of possessions compared to 16.3%.
All of this makes Idaho State a compelling pick to win against the spread of 5.5. So, if you're looking to make a smart bet and work together to win, Idaho State is the way to go.
Furman -5.5 vs Chattanooga
The Furman Paladins and Chattanooga Mocs are gearing up for a battle in the Southern Conference Finals, and this is your chance to make some cash. The Paladins are the top seed, while the Mocs are the 7th seed, but don't let the seed discrepancy fool you. The Mocs have been heating up as of late, especially since the return of 7-footer Jake Stephens, and this matchup could be closer than you think.
Furman has the edge here; they come into the game with a 5.9 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and a 3.38 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. The Paladins have been the top-dog in the SoCon all season, and their ability to score and play solid defense make them the favorite.
But the Mocs aren't out of the game yet. They have had their fair share of ups and downs this season, especially when Stephens was out due to injury. But he's back and better than ever, and he's put up 21, 21, and 25 in his last three games. This has injected life into the Mocs and they could be a real threat today.
The Paladins should be able to help you cover the -5.5 point spread. But this game could be a wild ride, as both teams have been going full-steam for three nights straight. I don't expect the Paladins to run away with it, but I do expect a good showdown for the tournament berth and for Furman to pull away and win by 6+.
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