5 picks from data driven predictive model for tonight's NBA slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
POR Trail Blazers 1H -3 (-110) @ DET Pistons; & POR Trail Blazers -6 (-110) @ DET Pistons
The Portland Trail Blazers are coming off a win against the Orlando Magic, with Damian Lillard scoring 41 points and Jerami Grant adding 20 points, six rebounds, seven assists, two blocks, and one steal. Their impressive 8.5 Pythagorean /- takes into account their points per game, as well as their points allowed per game, and the higher the number, the more likely it is that the team will cover the spread. The Trail Blazers have been averaging 109.4 points per game and allowing 103.7 points per game, giving them a legitimate chance of covering the spread of -6.5.
The Trail Blazers have some other advantages heading into this game as well. Cam Reddish had a season-high 25 points in a recent loss to the Atlanta Hawks, and the team has a deep bench with players like Shaedon Sharpe and Keon Johnson providing a spark off the bench. While they're missing Ibou Badji, Jusuf Nurkic, Ryan Arcidiacono, and Anfernee Simons due to injury, the Trail Blazers still have enough talent to give the Pistons a tough game.
The Pistons, on the other hand, have been having a rough season. They're coming off of a loss to the Charlotte Hornets, and are missing Franz Wagner and Gary Harris due to injury. Wagner will be available for Sunday's game against the Trail Blazers, but he is likely to be a limited factor.
All in all, the Trail Blazers have the edge in this matchup and look like a great bet to cover the spread of -6.5. With their impressive Pythagorean /- and Lillard and Grant leading the way, they should be able to get the job done. I'm backing Portland to cover this spread in the 1st Half and in the full game.
IND Pacers 1H +3 (-110) vs PHI 76ers
The Indiana Pacers are looking to cover the spread against the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday, and the signs are pointing towards a Pacers victory. The Pacers have the edge in terms of Pythagorean Expectation, and have been bolstered by recent wins against the Chicago Bulls, Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic. Adding to the Pacers' motivation is the 76ers' recent 16-game winning streak-breaking victory over the Bucks.
The Pacers have been given a spark in the past week from center Myles Turner, who tied his career-high with 40 points in a loss to the Celtics on Feb. 23. The 76ers have been on a roll too, with James Harden scoring 19 points in the fourth quarter against the Bucks and finishing with 38 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds. Joel Embiid also put up 31 points and 10 assists, while Tyrese Maxey scored 26 points and Georges Niang had 16. Maxey has scored at least 23 points in four straight games.
The 76ers have shown they can rally and pull off a win when the odds are stacked against them, so the Pacers will have their work cut out for them. The Pacers have the tools to cover the spread, and have the motivation to do so, so now is the time to get your bets ready. With the Pacers boasting a higher Pythagorean Expectation and their confidence high, I'm backing the Pacers in the 1st Half tonight.
MIA Heat 1H -1 (-115) vs ATL Hawks
The Miami Heat have been on a roll since their coaching change, and they look primed to beat the spread against the Atlanta Hawks. With an impressive Pythagorean/- differential of 11.2 and a net rating of +7.9, the Heat are in prime position to outscore their opponents and come out on top.
The Heat's explosive offense has been a major factor in their success, as they rank fifth in the NBA in offensive rating and sixth in offensive rebounding. This should give the Heat the edge against the smaller Atlanta team. The Hawks have been on a bit of a roller coaster this season and have had some impressive wins, but they just weren't able to keep up with the Heat in their last game.
Atlanta's three-point shooting has been strong this season, as they rank second in the league with 687 shots from beyond the arc, but they are one of the worst teams in rebounding, with 2,799 boards this season. This could be a major problem against the Heat, who are sixth in the NBA in offensive rebounding.
So if you're looking for a winning bet, look no further than the Miami Heat. With their impressive stats and size advantage, the Heat should be able to outscore the Hawks and easily cover the spread. Get your bets in now and cash in with the Hot-Steaming Miami Heat!
TOR Raptors/DEN Nuggets 1H u117.5 (-110)
The Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets are neck-and-neck in the race and the Raptors have the added advantage of recently signing Will Barton. The Raptors will have to bring their A-game on the road, as Denver is the top home team in the league with a 29-4 record at Ball Arena.
Nikola Jokic is having an MVP-caliber season for the Nuggets and is averaging a triple-double for the year. He has recorded 25 triple-doubles this year and the Nuggets are unbeaten when he hits that mark. If the Raptors can keep up with Denver's high-scoring offense, they could make a statement and prove who is the better team in this matchup.
With the stakes so high, the combined first-half total is the value-added spot. This matchup is historically profitable for 1st Half totals going under. Whether you're a fan of the Raptors or Nuggets, or just a savvy sports bettor, this game is sure to be an exciting and intense matchup. I'm taking the 1st Half under.
Comments