Clean 5-0 sweep yesterday. 7 picks from data driven predictive model for today's college basketball slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
Colorado State/New Mexico u155.5 (-110)
This Friday night, two of the most efficient offenses in the Mountain West Conference (MWC) will go head to head when the Colorado State Rams (13-17, 5-12 MWC) host the New Mexico Lobos (21-9, 8-9 MWC). Both teams boast impressive offensive stats, but it's the slow pace of the Rams that will make all the difference in this game.
The Rams are sixth in the MWC in scoring, averaging 72.4 points per game on 49.0% shooting. Colorado State is led by John Tonje, who is averaging 14 points per game, and have an outside threat in Isaiah Stevens, who is averaging 1.9 made 3-pointers in the last 10 games.
The Lobos are ranked second in the MWC in rebounds per game with 33.9. They are led by Morris Udeze, who is averaging 9.3 rebounds per game and scored 25 points in their last game against the Fresno State Bulldogs. Jaelen House is also a threat on the outside, averaging 1.8 made 3-pointers per game on 38.0% shooting, while Jamal Mashburn Jr. is shooting 44.1% and averaging 20.5 points over the past 10 games.
Statistically, the game looks to be close, with the Rams going 8-7 at home and the Lobos going 8-9 against MWC opponents. However, the Rams' slow pace of play is the deciding factor in this game. Colorado State averages just 64.5 possessions per game, one of the slowest paces in the nation. This slow pace will limit the amount of possessions for both teams, which will lead to fewer points scored overall.
If you're looking to win some money on this game, then the slow pace of the Rams is your key. Colorado State's slow possession total will limit the number of points scored, making the game total to go under. So, even though this is a matchup between two efficient offenses, it's the Rams' slow pace that will be the deciding factor in the outcome. Get ready to make some money this Friday night with the Rams' slow pace!
BYU/Portland u155.5 (-110)
Tonight, two fast paced teams face off in the 2nd round of the WCC Tournament. The BYU Cougars (17-14, 7-9 WCC) face the Portland Pilots (14-18, 5-11 WCC). Both teams play at a fast pace which is inflating this game total.
The Cougars rank 47th in Adjusted Tempo with 70.14 possessions per 40 minutes. BYU has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 108.36, ranking 123rd, and an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 97.43, ranking 38th.
On the other side, Portland ranks 83rd in Adjusted Tempo with 69.44 possessions per 40 minutes. The Pilots have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 110.88, ranking 82nd, and an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 110.24, which ranks 270th.
This game total of 155.5 is inflated due to the combination of both teams' tempo and Portland's struggling Defensive Efficiency. However, with this being a conference tournament game, I expect defenses to tighten up and limit points. My model is projecting a total of 151 in this game. I think this game will go under the total.
Drake -10.5 (-115) vs. Murray State
The 2023 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is in full swing and with Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Evansville and Indiana State all out of the running, all eyes are on the matchup between Drake and Murray State. My projections have Drake winning by 13 and it's looking like a great opportunity to cash in on the spread.
Drake have been in the MVC Tournament finals the last two years and they're looking to make it a hat trick. With a +2.7 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and a +14 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they've got the clear edge over Murray State. They've been on a roll lately, going 9-3 in their last 12 games, and have been particularly impressive on the road, going 5-1 in their last 6 away games.
Murray State have had a solid season but they're outmatched here. They've been struggling lately, going 1-4 in their last five games, and have only won two of their last six away games. They have a +1.1 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but a +1.1 point disadvantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
The numbers are looking good for Drake and the spread is set at -10.5. My projections have Drake winning by 13, so what are you waiting for? Let's make some money together and get behind Drake to cover the spread.
Drake have been the top team in the MVC all season and they've got the talent and the data-driven edge to take the tournament title this year. With their strong offensive and defensive efficiency, they're primed to conquer Murray State and make us all a little richer. Let's get behind them and make it happen!
Denver +1 (-120) vs. North Dakota
Denver Pioneers and North Dakota Fightin' Hawks are set to face off in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. With their faster pace of play and proficient offense, the Pioneers have the edge to cover the 1 point spread. My model is projecting Denver to win this matchup.
Denver has gone 6-12 against Summit teams, with a 9-4 record in non-conference play. They give up 74.8 points to opponents and have been outscored by 2.0 points per game, while the Fightin' Hawks have a 6-12 Summit record and a fifth place ranking in the Summit with 31.1 rebounds per game.
The Pioneers hold a huge advantage on offense, with Tommy Bruner averaging 1.5 made 3-pointers per game, scoring 15.8 points while shooting 32.4% from beyond the arc. Tevin Smith is also averaging 10.9 points over the last 10 games for Denver. North Dakota's Matt Norman is shooting 42.6% from beyond the arc with 2.4 made 3-pointers per game, and Tsartsidze is shooting 50.7% and averaging 13.0 points over the past 10 games, but the Pioneers' more consistent offense and more efficient defense gives them the edge to win.
The Pioneers' 3-7 record over the last 10 games is deceiving, as they are averaging 67.9 points, 32.1 rebounds, 11.0 assists, 5.8 steals and 2.6 blocks per game while shooting 45.4%. Denver has the capability to outscore the Fightin' Hawks if they can maintain their pace of play. North Dakota's 5-5 record over the last 10 games is averaging 77.9 points, 30.1 rebounds, 10.8 assists, 3.8 steals and 2.6 blocks per game while shooting 45.0%.
So if you're looking to make some money, the smart bet is on Denver Pioneers to cover the 1 point spread against the North Dakota Fightin' Hawks. With their faster pace of play and proficient offense, Denver has the edge to win and the potential to cash in big!
Ball State/Toledo o158.5 (-110)
Ball State faces off against Toledo tonight. The game total is currently at 158.5. My model is projecting a game total in the 170's. Both teams boast an efficient offensive game and a less than stellar defensive one, so the combined game total should be expected to go over.
Ball State has one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball, averaging 1.163 points per possession. Their offense is led by their backcourt of Ishmael El-Amin and Jarron Coleman, both of whom are shooting over 40% from the 3-point line. Toledo's offense is driven by guard Marreon Jackson, who is averaging nearly 18 points and 8 assists per game. He's also been efficient from the 3-point line, shooting over 42%.
Defensively, both teams have been less than stellar. Ball State's Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranks 64th in the nation, while Toledo's ranks even lower at 105th. Ball State has been particularly vulnerable to 3-point shots, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 38%, and Toledo has been less effective at defending the 3-point line, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 40%.
With the offensive capabilities of both teams and the defensive weaknesses of each, this is sure to be a high scoring game. For these reasons, I'm taking the over in this matchup.
East Carolina +12.5 (-120) @ Tulane
The Pirates come in with an 18-8 record and the Green Wave are 15-12. With the spread set at 12.5 points, East Carolina looks like the team to back.
Tulane has been playing at a breakneck pace, averaging 70.9 possessions per game - the 24th fastest in the nation. But that style won't be enough to beat the Pirates, who have a much slower pace of 64.5 possessions per game. That slower pace could help East Carolina keep the game close and cover the spread.
East Carolina has been playing their best ball lately, going 5-1 in their last six games. The Pirates have been lighting it up on the court, averaging a very efficient 1.15 points per possession. They've also been shooting the ball well, shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from beyond the arc.
Tulane, on the other hand, has been struggling. They've gone 2-4 in their last six games and have been struggling to put points on the board, averaging just 1.01 points per possession, which is below the NCAA average of 1.09. They've also been shooting the ball poorly, shooting just 41.2 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from beyond the arc.
So it looks like the Pirates have the edge to cover the 12.5 point spread against the Green Wave. East Carolina's efficient offense, combined with their slower pace, should give them the edge to cover the spread in this one and make us some money.
Kent State -3.5 (-115) vs. Akron
Both teams currently sit atop the Mid-American Conference standings, with the Golden Flashes boasting a 24-6 record, 14-3 in conference, while Akron is 21-9, 13-4 in conference.
Kent State has the upper hand on the offensive side, playing at a faster tempo than the Zips and with a greater advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Golden Flashes average 79.3 points per game, compared to the Zips' 75.1, and score 111.2 points per 100 possessions compared to the Zips' 108.6.
The Golden Flashes' defense is even more impressive, with a 6.7 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kent State allows only 98.3 points per 100 possessions, compared to Akron's 105. Meanwhile, Kent State also has an advantage on the boards, averaging 32.5 rebounds per game, compared to the Zips' 30.3.
Kent State's Sincere Carry has been a major factor in the team's success, averaging 16.9 points per game, 4.9 assists and 1.8 steals. Carry came up huge in the Golden Flashes' 82-75 victory against the Ohio Bobcats, dropping 23 points. Additionally, Malique Jacobs has been a consistent player for the Golden Flashes, averaging 12.4 points and 5.5 rebounds while shooting 39.4% over the past 10 games.
The Zips are led by Xavier Castaneda, who averages 21.8 points per game with 4.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Additionally, Enrique Freeman is a major factor for the Zips, averaging 18.2 points and 11.6 rebounds while shooting 62.7% over the past 10 games.
My projections are predicting Kent State to win by 10 tonight, and I think that the Golden Flashes will cover the -3.5 point spread. Being the home team, with the faster tempo and greater advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, I expect the Golden Flashes will come out on top. I'm backing the Golden Flashes to cover the spread against the Zips.
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