5 picks from data driven predictive model for today's college basketball slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
Oregon State/Stanford o131.5
Thursday night is the time to get paid as Stanford takes on Oregon State in Corvallis, Oregon. Even though the records don't show it, the Cardinal have been putting together some impressive wins, such as their 81-69 victory over Washington. Point guard Michael O'Connell was the star of the show, dishing out a career-best 12 assists and getting the ball to some of Stanford's best shooters, including Spencer Jones who knocked down 21 points and four 3-pointers.
Oregon State also has some talented offensive players, such as Jordan Pope, who averages 12.5 points per game. In their last game, Pope had eight points but teammate Dexter Akanno stepped up and dropped 17 points. Oregon State's coach Wayne Tinkle was pleased with the team's increased tempo, which led to more fastbreak opportunities and scoring chances.
My projections are predicting a total score of 136 points, but I think that with Stanford's efficient offense and Oregon State's talented players, this could be a payday for the #gamblingtwitter community. I'm taking the total over, and I think that this game will be higher scoring than the projections suggest. So get ready to put your money where your mouth is and let's work together to win some bets.
Saint Peter's/Rider o127.5
Saint Peter's hosts rider on Thursday night. These are two teams you would scroll past on the TV guide, but it's a great opportunity to cash a ticket.
My projections are predicting the game total to be 131. Both teams play at a slow pace, ranked 312th and 349th in tempo. Neither Saint Peter's or Rider have efficient defenses, ranked 251st and 236th, respectively. Both of these teams are in the top 35 in college basketball in offensive rebound percentage. I think there will be a lot of opportunities for second chance points. I think this game total is too low. I am taking the combined game total OVER.
North Texas -7.5
College basketball fans are getting ready for a big game between North Texas and Middle Tennessee, and the smart money says North Texas is the team to back. With the Mean Green favored by 7.5 points, it's time to get ready to win some bets!
North Texas has a distinct advantage when it comes to Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE). AOE measures a team's offensive efficiency based on the number of points they score per 100 possessions, and North Texas is 4 points ahead of Middle Tennessee in this category. That means they're more efficient at putting the ball in the hoop.
The Mean Green also have the edge when it comes to Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADE). This statistic measures a team's defensive efficiency based on the number of points they allow per 100 possessions, and North Texas has a 9 point advantage over Middle Tennessee. That means they're better at stopping their opponents from scoring.
Plus, North Texas has a higher Offensive Rebound % (ORB%), meaning they are better at rebounding and keeping the ball on their side of the court. They also have a higher Free Throw Attempt Rate (FTA Rate), meaning they are better at drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line.
Finally, Middle Tennessee allows a higher Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) to their opponents. eFG% measures a team's shooting accuracy by giving extra weight to 3-point shots, so this means that Middle Tennessee allows more accurate shots from their opponents than North Texas.
With an advantage in AOE, ADE, ORB%, FTA Rate, and eFG%, North Texas is poised to win against Middle Tennessee. Get ready to cash in on the Mean Green!
Northern Kentucky -6.5
I like Northern Kentucky to cover the spread of -6.5 against Oakland. The Wildcats have a 9 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, giving them an edge in defending against Oakland's offense.
Northern Kentucky has faced a tougher schedule than Oakland and has still managed to keep their opponents to an average of 64.3 points per game. The Wildcats' defense has been especially impressive on the perimeter, where they rank third in the nation in three-point field goal percentage defense. Northern Kentucky has allowed opponents to make just 28.4 percent of their threes, making them a force to be reckoned with.
The Wildcats also have offensive consistency on their side. They have been able to score at least 70 points in all but four games this season, and have shot over 50 percent from the field in all but one game. Northern Kentucky has also been excellent at taking care of the ball, turning it over just 11.8 times per game, which is good for ninth in the nation.
Northern Kentucky is the perfect combination of offensive and defensive prowess. They have the defensive prowess to contain Oakland's offense, and the offensive consistency to put up points on the board. With a 9 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Wildcats are the clear favorite to cover the spread of -6.5 against Oakland. Get ready to lock in your bets, folks! Northern Kentucky is sure to dominate this matchup.
Portland -5.5
I'm liking the Portland Pilots to cover the -5.5 point spread at home in tonight's game against the San Diego Toreros.
The Pilots and the Toreros have similar statistics in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Portland's key advantage is in their 4 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Portland Pilots have a higher effective FG% and a much higher Free Throw Attempt Rate. Portland Pilots are holding opponents to a lower effective FG% and a lower Free Throw Attempt Rate.
I expect there to be plenty of opportunities for Portland to get to the Free Throw line, make some key shots, and cover this spread.
Comments