6 picks from data driven predictive model for day 2 of the NCAA Tournament. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
UConn -9.5 (-105) vs. Iona
The Huskies have a clear advantage over the Iona Gaels when it comes to efficiency. According to Division I men's basketball analytics, Connecticut has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency score of 109.6, while the Gaels have a score of only 100.6. The Huskies have a higher effective field goal percentage, a lower turnover percentage, and a higher offensive rebounding percentage than the Gaels, meaning they're able to generate more points per possession.
On the defensive end, the Huskies have a score of 95.9, while the Gaels have a score of 102.2. The Huskies have a higher defensive rebounding percentage, a lower opponent effective field goal percentage, and a lower opponent turnover percentage than the Gaels, meaning they're able to limit their opponents' offensive production.
The Huskies also have a significant size advantage. Connecticut's average height of 6-foot-5 is taller than the average height of Iona's players, which is 6-foot-2. This means that the Huskies will have a better chance at defensive rebounds, which will limit the Gaels' offensive production. Additionally, this size advantage gives the Huskies an edge when it comes to the post, where the taller Huskies will be more likely to score.
It's clear that the Connecticut Huskies are set to beat the spread of -9.5 against the Iona Gaels. With their superior approach to efficiency on both offense and defense, as well as their size advantage, the Huskies should be considered the favorites in this matchup.
Iowa State ML (-190) vs. Pitt
The Iowa State Cyclones and the Pittsburgh Panthers are set to face off in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. If you're looking to make a smart bet, then you should put your money on the Cyclones. Even though the Panthers have a better record, Iowa State has the advantage when it comes to stats.
When it comes to adjusted defensive efficiency, the Cyclones have the upper hand. According to KenPom, Iowa State ranks 38th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Pittsburgh ranks 91st. This means that Iowa State is better at defending against their opponents and limiting their points per possession. Iowa State also has a slight advantage in field goal percentage defense. The Cyclones are ranked 69th in the country in that category, while the Panthers come in at 86th.
On the offensive side of the ball, Pittsburgh has the edge. The Panthers rank 60th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Iowa State comes in at 82nd. Pittsburgh also has the edge in field goal percentage, with the Panthers ranked 41st in the country and the Cyclones ranked 98th.
The biggest key to this game is going to be how well Iowa State can defend against Pittsburgh. The Cyclones have the talent and the defensive ability to limit the Panthers’ offensive output. If Iowa State can do that and take advantage of their offensive opportunities, then they should have no problem winning this game.
The Cyclones also have an advantage in terms of experience. Iowa State’s roster consists of seven seniors and five juniors, while Pittsburgh’s roster consists of five seniors and four juniors. This means that the Cyclones have more players who have been through the tournament grind and know what it takes to win games in March.
For all these reasons, Iowa State is the value bet to take down Pittsburgh in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Cyclones have the defensive ability to limit the Panthers’ offensive output and the experience to make the most of their offensive opportunities. With that combination, Iowa State should be able to come out on top and advance to the second round, making them a value bet for sports bettors.
USC/Michigan State o137.5 (-110)
With the NCAA Tournament quickly approaching, the matchup between Southern California (USC) and Michigan State (MSU) is one of the most exciting games of the 2023 March Madness bracket. Both teams have elite defenses, allowing their opponents to score very few points per possession, while their offenses can be inconsistent. This makes the USC vs. Michigan State game the perfect opportunity to bet on the over.
USC enters the tournament ranked 16th in the nation in defensive efficiency, allowing only 92.2 points per 100 possessions. The Trojans have been particularly strong in shutting down opposing teams’ 3-point shooting and are in the top 25 nationally in both blocking and stealing, so their defense has been strong in both the interior and perimeter.
Michigan State has been even better on defense, ranking 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency. MSU allows opponents to score just 91.1 points per 100 possessions. The Spartans have held opponents to below 40% shooting from the field on average, and have also been incredibly efficient at stopping teams from shooting from the field, as opponents are shooting just 37.9% from the field against them. Michigan State is also second in the nation in blocking shots and third in steals, making them an all-around defensive powerhouse.
Although USC and Michigan State both have elite defenses, their offenses can be inconsistent. The Trojans rank 101st in the nation in offensive efficiency, scoring just 97.7 points per 100 possessions, while the Spartans are slightly better at 98.7 points per 100 possessions and rank 79th in the nation. Despite this, both teams have the potential to be very efficient when they do have the ball. USC and Michigan State both have efficient shooting teams, with the Trojans ranked 33rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) at 53.6%, and the Spartans ranked 18th in the nation at 54.5%. Both teams also rank in the top 50 in the nation in offensive rebound percentage, which could provide them with extra scoring opportunities.
Given the strength of both teams’ defenses and the fact that their offenses can be inconsistent, this matchup looks like the perfect opportunity to bet on the over. USC and Michigan State both have the potential to be very efficient when they do have the ball, and the combined game total for this matchup could end up being higher than expected. If you're looking to make a bet on this game, you should definitely consider betting on the over.
Fairleigh Dickinson +23.5 (-115) vs. Purdue
As sports fans, we love an underdog story. And the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights present a compelling case to cover the spread against the Purdue Boilermakers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Boilermakers come in with a 29-5 record and a 15-5 record against Big Ten opponents, while the Knights come in with a 20-15 record and a 10-6 record in NEC play.
The Knights have been on a roll as of late, winning six of their last 10 games. They are also averaging 76.6 points, while allowing opponents to score just 70.2. This could be a key indicator of their ability to keep the score close against the Boilermakers. On top of that, Fairleigh Dickinson is shooting 46.6% from the field, which could help them keep up with the Boilermakers' 45% field goal percentage. Additionally, their 36.2 rebounds per game rank ninth in college basketball, which could be an indicator that they will have difficulty dominating the glass against the Knights.
The Purdue Boilermakers might be the heavy favorites, but that doesn't mean the Knights can't put up a fight and cover this spread. With the Boilermakers likely to cruise to a victory and the Knights' ability to keep the score close, this could be an opportunity for the betting community to unite and take down the books. So, if you're feeling lucky, why not put your money on the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights and join in on the fun?
At the end of the day, the Purdue Boilermakers are a solid team and are likely to win comfortably. But if you're looking for a chance to cash in on a cover, you might want to put your money on the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights.
Indiana -4.5 (-110) vs. Kent State
Indiana Hoosiers are ready to get paid when they face the Kent State Golden Flashes in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday night. Led by all-time great Trayce Jackson-Davis, the Hoosiers have the tools to make it rain against the Golden Flashes. Jackson-Davis is the school's all-time leading shot blocker and rebounder, and he's third all-time in scoring. He's averaging 20.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2.7 blocks per game this season, and he's a consensus All-American.
The Hoosiers have the edge in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, with a score of 113.8, compared to Kent State's 105.2. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency is a metric which takes into account a team's efficiency on offense, factoring in the number of shots taken, the amount of points scored, and the pace of the game. When it comes to cashing out, Indiana looks to be the team with the better chance of doing so.
Indiana also has a significant Size advantage. With an average height of 6'6", Indiana is one of the tallest teams in the tournament, while Kent State is one of the shortest at just 6'2". This size difference could be a huge factor in the game, as Kent State will have to contend with Indiana's size and physicality.
Kent State does have a slight advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, with a score of 97.0, compared to Indiana's 97.3. This indicates that they may be better able to defend against Indiana's offense. However, Indiana's size advantage should be enough to help them overcome Kent State's defense, and their offensive efficiency should be enough to help them score more points than Kent State.
With Indiana's Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, size advantage, and Trayce Jackson-Davis' stellar play, the Hoosiers are ready to cash out against the Kent State Golden Flashes. This game will come down to who can make the smarter plays and who can make the most of their opportunities. Indiana looks to have the edge when it comes to cashing out, so let's make some money on Friday night.
Arizona State/TCU o142.5 (-110)
The No. 22 TCU Horned Frogs and the Arizona State Sun Devils have both earned their spot in the NCAA Tournament and are ready to face off in the first round. With both teams boasting impressive records, this game is sure to be a close one.
The Horned Frogs come in with a 9-9 record in Big 12 games and a 12-3 record in non-conference play. TCU has averaged 75.2 points per game, outscoring opponents by 7.3 points per game. Damion Baugh has been their star player, averaging 12.6 points, 5.8 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. Emanuel Miller has also been a force over the last 10 games, averaging 10.9 points.
The Sun Devils have an 11-9 record in Pac-12 games. Arizona State has averaged 32.9 rebounds per game and is led by Warren Washington who averages 6.8 rebounds per game. Desmond Cambridge has been their go-to scorer, averaging 13.8 points per game with 3.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists. DJ Horne has also been impressive over the last 10 games, averaging 14.4 points and 3.1 rebounds while shooting 39.0%.
Both teams have had successful seasons and will be looking to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. With TCU's fast-paced offense and Arizona State's strong defensive presence, this game is sure to be an epic battle. The line is set at TCU -5.5 and the over/under is 142.5, so it’s time to make some bets! The Horned Frogs and Sun Devils will go head to head in Denver on Friday, 10:05 p.m. EDT to see who will come out on top. I like the over in this game.
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