5 picks from data driven predictive model for the opening day of the men's NCAA Tournament. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
West Virginia -2.5 (-120) vs. Maryland
It's time to get ready for some college basketball and cash in on the West Virginia Mountaineers. This team has the edge in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency to give the Terrapins a run for their money. The Mountaineers are led by senior guard Erik Stevenson who is averaging 22 points per game over the last seven games. This firepower has been bolstered by a tough schedule against teams with higher RPI rankings, giving the Mountaineers the experience edge.
The Terrapins have their own offensive weapons to counter the Mountaineers, with Jahmir Young leading the team in scoring at 16.1 points per game. Hakim Hart and Donta Scott are also making their presence felt, averaging 11.5 points and 5.4 rebounds respectively. Defensively, the Terrapins have been impressive, allowing an average of 63.2 points per game, the lowest total since the 1981-82 season.
The Mountaineers have a balanced attack, with four players averaging double figures and Kedrian Johnson leading the team in assists with 3.2 per game. And with Emmitt Matthews Jr. averaging 13.2 points and 4.8 rebounds in the last 10 games, the Mountaineers have the edge to give the Terrapins a run for their money.
The spread for this game is -2.5 in favor of West Virginia, and with their advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, a tougher schedule this year, and experience on their side, the Mountaineers look primed to beat the spread and make some money.
Utah State/Missouri u154.5 (-105)
The NCAA Tournament is underway and sports bettors have a prime opportunity to make some money by predicting the upsets. One game that could be ripe for a surprising outcome is the matchup between the 10-seeded Utah State Aggies and the 7-seeded Missouri Tigers.
Oddsmakers have set the total for this game at 154.5 for Utah State. However, this line might be a bit too high, as the Aggies have been one of the most consistent teams in college basketball all season long. Utah State has won 17 of their last 19 games and they have a deep roster with seven players averaging double figures in scoring.
On the other hand, Missouri has had to deal with some uncertainty due to injuries. Dru Smith, the Tigers’ leading scorer, missed the last three games of the regular season and his status for Thursday’s game is uncertain. Furthermore, the Tigers have had trouble scoring the ball recently, failing to reach the 70-point mark in four of their last five games.
Given the circumstances, Utah State has a real chance of pulling off a win today. The Aggies have the veteran leadership and offensive firepower to keep this game close, and the nerves of the NCAA Tournament could further swing the game in their favor. I think this game will play at a slower tempo, as both teams will be cautious with their shots and defensive rotations. The under is the value opportunity in this game.
Kansas/Howard o146.5 (-110)
It’s almost time for the 2023 NCAA Tournament and the matchup between Kansas and Howard has college basketball fans abuzz. With the Jayhawks boasting one of the most efficient offenses in college hoops and a defense that’s top-notch, it’s no surprise they’re the clear favorite to win the matchup. And they’ve been strong against the spread, going 7-4 in their last 11 games, while Howard is 4-0 in their last four.
Kansas is loaded with experienced players, like Marcus Garrett (15.7 ppg), Jalen Wilson (13.3 ppg), Christian Braun (11.2 ppg) and Ochai Agbaji (10.7 ppg), who have led the Jayhawks to the 7th-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation. They limit their opponents’ shooting efficiency to 47.2% from two-point range and 31.2% from three-point range, while only allowing 11.2 assists per game and forcing a turnover on 20.2% of defensive possessions.
On offense, Kansas is just as dominant, averaging 88.7 points per game this season. They’re not only efficient, but they’re also careful with the ball, committing a mere 12.6% turnovers. Plus, they’re near the top of the nation in free throw rate.
Howard is led by All-MEAC guard Elijah Hawkins, who is averaging 13.0 points, 5.9 assists and 1.7 steals per game. The Bison have a great shooting efficiency, a strong free throw rate and a generous 14.9 assists per game. Plus, they’re strong on the glass, securing 33.8% of missed shots on the offensive glass.
Given Kansas’ strong offense and defense, it’s clear that they’re the team to beat in this matchup. Howard’s offense is solid, but their defense won’t be able to contain the Jayhawks’ attack. With the total set at 146, we’re betting on the over.
Auburn ML (-120) vs. Iowa
The Auburn Tigers (20-12, 10-8 SEC) and Iowa Hawkeyes (19-13, 11-9 Big Ten) are ready to face off this Thursday in the first round of the NCAA tournament. If you're looking for the better bet, Auburn has the edge when it comes to Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and a tougher schedule.
Kris Murray is shooting 48.4% and averaging 20.4 points for the Hawkeyes, while Johni Broome is scoring 14.0 points per game with 8.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists for the Tigers. Wendell Green Jr. is averaging 13.9 points and 3.5 rebounds for the Tigers, making them a formidable opponent for the Hawkeyes.
The Hawkeyes have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, averaging 77.4 points, 30.7 rebounds, 16.8 assists, 7.1 steals, and 2.5 blocks per game while shooting 44.6%. On the other hand, Auburn has gone 3-7 in their last 10 games, averaging 71.3 points, 30.4 rebounds, 12.9 assists, 7.7 steals, and 3.6 blocks per game while shooting 42.2%.
Auburn has the home-court advantage and the edge in defense, so it's worth considering them for your NCAA Tournament bracket and betting needs. With a slight edge in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, a tougher schedule, and a talented roster, the Auburn Tigers are a safe bet to take down the Iowa Hawkeyes. So if you're looking to make money in March Madness, the Auburn Tigers are a great pick.
Texas -13.5 (-110) vs. Colgate
The Texas Longhorns have had an impressive season, going 26-8 overall and 12-6 in Big 12 play, while outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.4 points per game. Their most recent victory, a 20-point win over Kansas, one of the top teams in the country, has made them a favorite heading into their matchup against the Colgate Raiders.
The Raiders have a 26-8 record of their own and have only lost one game against a Patriot League opponent this season. They average 18.5 assists per game and have been led by Tucker Richardson, who averages 5.8 assists per game.
The Longhorns have the advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADE). Texas ranks in the top 25 in both categories, while the Raiders rank in the top 50. The Longhorns' AOE is 111.1, while the Raiders' is 103.5. On the defensive side, the Longhorns have an ADE of 96.1, while the Raiders have an ADE of 103.8.
In the last 10 games, Marcus Carr has been the Longhorns' star player, averaging 15.9 points with 3.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. Jabari Rice has also been a key contributor, averaging 15.9 points and 3.3 rebounds while shooting 45.7% over the same period. On the other side, Oliver Lynch-Daniels has been a key 3-point shooter, averaging 2.5 made 3-pointers per game while scoring 12.3 points and shooting 50.3% from beyond the arc. Keegan Records has also been a strong player, averaging 15.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks over the last 10 games.
The Texas Longhorns have a clear edge in this matchup, and by leveraging their advantage in AOE and ADE, betting fans can use analytics to make some serious cash on this NCAA Tournament matchup. With the Longhorns' impressive record and the strong play of their star players, they should be able to cover the spread.
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