5 picks from data driven predictive model for tonight's NCAAB slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
Cincinnati ML (-230) vs Virginia Tech
It's time to get your bets ready because Landers Nolley II and the fourth-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats are ready to roar against the Virginia Tech Hokies in the opening round of the National Invitation Tournament on Wednesday. Nolley is no stranger to this matchup as he began his college career with the Hokies, so he's bringing his veteran skills and experience to the court.
The Bearcats also have a 21-12 record from the season, their most wins since they last made the NCAA Tournament in 2018-19. Joining Nolley in the backcourt is David DeJulius, who averages 14.5 points and 5.2 assists, giving the Bearcats the offensive firepower they need to win.
On the other side of the court, the Hokies (19-14) were looking for a third consecutive NCAA bid, but that dream was crushed with a 97-77 loss to North Carolina State in the second round of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament. The Wolfpack outrebounded the Hokies 33-23 and made 61.9 percent of their shots from the floor.
It looks like the Bearcats have the edge here, and the stats back it up. Despite Virginia Tech's edge in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, Cincinnati has the advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and faster tempo that'll give them the win. Plus, Cincinnati has a 10-8 record against Virginia Tech's coach Mike Young during his years as head coach in the Southern Conference, meaning the Bearcats are one step ahead when it comes to strategy.
With Nolley's veteran experience, the Bearcats' advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and their faster tempo, Cincinnati is ready to roar to victory in their upcoming game against the Hokies.
Oregon -7.5 (-105) vs UC Irvine
It's time to get your bets ready, because Oregon and UC Irvine are set to face off in a highly-anticipated rematch. The Ducks are looking to make history and make bettors' dreams come true with a win that would give them a program-best 13 straight seasons with 20 or more wins. The Ducks have the edge in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and they're poised to make a run for the NIT title.
Oregon holds a clear advantage in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, making them a strong pick to cover the spread of 7.5. The Ducks' formidable frontline is led by 6-foot-11 center N'Faly Dante, who earned First Team All-Pac-12 honors after averaging career highs in points (13.4), rebounds (8.4) and blocks (1.4). Dante is likely to play despite an ankle injury, while Jermaine Couisnard (shoulder) and Will Richardson (hip) are out.
UC Irvine's junior guard DJ Davis had a stellar performance in the first game between these two teams, scoring 24 points and making six 3-pointers in the victory. Davis is currently averaging 15.2 points a game, while junior guard Dawson Baker averages a team-high 15.3 points. The Anteaters have since gone on to share the Big West Conference regular-season championship with UC Santa Barbara, while the top-seeded UC Irvine were defeated 83-80 by fourth-seeded Cal State Fullerton in the conference semifinals, leading to their current NIT run.
It's time to get your bets ready, because Oregon is the pick to take down UC Irvine by the spread of 7.5. The Ducks' advantage in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, coupled with the probability of Dante taking the court and the steady play of Davis and Baker for the Anteaters, make Oregon a great pick for bettors.
Texas Southern ML (-140) vs Fairleigh Dickinson
It's a match made in sports betting heaven: Texas Southern Tigers versus Fairleigh Dickinson Knights in Wednesday's NCAA matchup. Both teams have similar styles of play, so it's a great opportunity for sports bettors to cash in on the game. Texas Southern has the edge in defense, which is an important factor in determining the winner.
The Tigers rank 121st in the country in points allowed per possession, while Fairleigh Dickinson ranks 298th in this category. This means Texas Southern is better equipped to defend against their opponent and get the win. Additionally, the Knights have the worse overall shooting, meaning they have a harder time scoring points. The Tigers' offense is heavily reliant on three-point shots, with the team being 357th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 29.1%. Fairleigh Dickinson is 356th out of 363 Division I teams in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Texas Southern should have no problem getting points, as they are 73.5% of their field goal attempts away from home are 2-point shots, which is the 13th-highest percentage in the nation. Additionally, both teams allow plenty of second chances with Fairleigh Dickinson being 315th in the country in foul rate per defensive play and Texas Southern being 272nd.
This game should produce a lot of points, and Texas Southern has the advantage with their 11th ranking in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This means that Texas Southern is the team that is most likely to come away victorious and make you a winner.
Morehead State +15.5 (-105) vs Clemson
The upcoming match-up between Morehead State and Clemson is the perfect opportunity to do that. While Clemson may have a 23-10 record and a strong frontcourt, Morehead State's slow tempo offense could keep them in the game and allow them to cover the spread of 15.5.
Morehead State was the top seed in the Ohio Valley Conference, but unfortunately, they were upset in the semifinals. However, this matchup gives them a chance to prove why they should have been in March Madness. Mark Freeman, Morehead State's leader in points and assists, will play a major role in this game. If he can control the tempo, it will be difficult for Clemson to pull away and win by the spread. Alex Gross and Drew Thelwell are also worth keeping an eye on, both averaging over 11 points per game.
Morehead State's slow tempo offense is the key to their success against Clemson. This style of play limits the amount of possessions in the game, and thus, reduces the amount of scoring opportunities for Clemson. If the Eagles can control the pace and limit the Tigers' scoring, they will have a good chance of covering the spread.
The Morehead State Eagles versus Clemson Tigers is the pick. The Eagles need to embrace their slow tempo offense and give it their all if they want to cover the spread. With the right mindset, Morehead State can shock the Tigers and prove why they belong in March Madness.
Oklahoma State -6.5 (-105) vs Youngstown State
It's that time of year again: NCAA Tournament season. And, with that, comes the opportunity to make some serious money betting on the games. With the Cowboys favored by 6.5 points against Youngstown State, there's no better time to get in on the action.
Despite Youngstown State's impressive Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking of 11th in the nation, Oklahoma State's Adjusted Defensive Efficiency gives them the edge when it comes to covering the spread. The Cowboys allow their opponents to score an average of just 87.9 points per game, a testament to their tenacious defense.
Oklahoma State has also been firing on all cylinders lately, with a 9-3 record in conference play. Their balanced offensive attack has been especially effective, with four players averaging double figures in scoring. They've also been lights out from the field, shooting a collective 50.6 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from three-point range.
The Cowboys have also proven to be resilient late in games, outscoring their opponents in the final five minutes of regulation in 14 of their 19 conference games. This is especially impressive on the road, where they boast a 7-2 record. With such an impressive performance on the road, it's clear that Oklahoma State is well-positioned to cover the 6.5-point spread against Youngstown State.
With both teams playing at a high level, the upcoming game should be a close one. But Oklahoma State's defensive prowess and road dominance should be enough to carry them to a victory and cover the spread.
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