2 picks from data driven predictive model for tonight's NBA slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino Resort.
BKN Nets +2 (-115)
The Brooklyn Nets and Oklahoma City Thunder are ready to go head to head in what promises to be an epic match. Neither team has been on a hot streak since the All-Star Break, with the Nets posting a 5-5 record and the Thunder 5-6. The Nets are currently tied with the New York Knicks for the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference, while the Thunder are in the mix for the Western Conference Play-In Tournament.
The Nets have seen a dramatic shift in their defensive identity since the start of the season, trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving for Dorian Finney-Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, and Cameron Johnson. This has allowed them to lock down opponents, with the team posting a defensive rating of 105.7 points per 100 possessions during their last five games. The Thunder have also capitalized on their defensive improvements, allowing only 108.4 points per 100 possessions in their last five games.
The addition of All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a major factor in the Thunder’s recent success. In his three games back, he has averaged 35.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.0 steals, shooting 54.7 percent from the field. Rookie Jalen Williams has been a major force for the team too, averaging 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists while shooting 60.7 percent from the floor in his last four games.
Nic Claxton of the Nets believes that the team is building something special. “Not yet. We got three in a row? Five out of six? That's solid," Claxton said. "But we've just got to keep building off of it. It's definitely a game we can build off of."
All signs point to the Nets covering the spread against the Thunder. The Pythagorean expectation system predicts that Brooklyn has a higher chance of covering the spread, and it’s time to get in on the action. With their impressive defensive improvements, the Nets have the edge in this matchup.
NY Knicks -2.5 (-110)
If you're looking to place a bet on Tuesday night's matchup between the New York Knicks (40-30) and the Portland Trail Blazers (31-37), then you're in luck. The Knicks are listed as 2.5-point favorites, with a total of 228.
The Knicks are dealing with a foot injury to guard Jalen Brunson, who is listed as doubtful for the game. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers have listed both Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant as questionable. If they are out, the line could move even more in New York’s favor.
The Knicks have been impressive on the road this season, boasting a 23-12 ATS record in all away games while going 7-2 ATS as a road favorite. This is largely due to their impressive Pythagorean rating of .633, which is the second-best in the NBA.
The Blazers, on the other hand, are 4-5 ATS as a home underdog this season. The team has struggled defensively this season, giving up 7,864 points, which places them in the top 10 in opponent points allowed. This could be a major factor if Lillard and Grant are out.
The Knicks have gone under their totals in the last four games, while the Blazers have gone over in three of their last five. This could be an indication that the Knicks' defense is in good form and could keep the Blazers in check if Lillard and Grant are out.
The Knicks have several factors going in their favor. They have an impressive Pythagorean rating, a strong record on the road, and a top 10 defense in points allowed. If Lillard and Grant are out, the Knicks' odds of covering the spread only increase. So if you're looking to get in on the action, the Knicks could be your ticket to cashing in on this matchup.
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