2 picks from data driven predictive model and 4 player props for tonight's NBA slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
DET Pistons 1H +3.5 (-120)
With the Detroit Pistons hosting the Chicago Bulls on March 1, the Pistons are aiming to use their strong offense to cover the 6-point spread. The Bulls bring their formidable defense to the matchup, while the Pistons are looking to capitalize on their offensive rebounding rate, free throw attempt rate, and Pythagorean rating to take the game.
The Pistons boast a 5.2 point advantage in terms of their Pythagorean rating, giving them a great chance of starting the game with a strong lead. Additionally, the Pistons have a higher offensive rebounding rate, grabbing 28.9% of their missed shots compared to the Bulls' 24.9%. The Pistons also have a 5% higher free throw attempt rate, averaging 26.8 attempts per game. This gives them an edge, as they are able to draw fouls more often than the Bulls.
The Pistons also have a 4% higher three-point attempt rate, which could help them spread the floor and open up the Bulls defense. This could lead to more open looks for the Pistons and could be beneficial in covering the spread.
Overall, the Detroit Pistons have the potential to cover the 6-point spread against the Chicago Bulls. With their strong Pythagorean rating, robust offensive rebounding, and higher free throw attempt rate, the Pistons look ready to take this game. The Bulls' defense will certainly be a challenge, but the Pistons appear confident they can put up a fight. I'll take the points with the Pistons in the 1st Half.
HOU Rockets 1H +6.5 (-115)
The Houston Rockets have been on a 10-game losing streak, but have managed to stay within this 6.5-point spread in 9 out of 10 of those games. With the return of Kevin Porter Jr. and the impressive play of rookie Jalen Green, the Rockets have a strong core of players ready to take on the Grizzlies.
Houston has been struggling since the beginning of the season, but even with their 13-48 record, they have been showing signs of improvement. The addition of rookie Tari Eason has given the Rockets a much-needed boost of talent, and he was instrumental in their recent games against the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers. He scored 17 points and grabbed 12 rebounds against Denver, making him a potential building block in the Rockets' future success.
On the other side, the Memphis Grizzlies have been very strong at home, boasting a 26-5 record. They are coming off of a win against the Los Angeles Lakers, but were trailing by three points at halftime before Ja Morant took over. Unfortunately, their starting center Steven Adams is injured, and the Grizzlies may have to play without him against the Rockets.
The Rockets have been struggling this season, but their young roster and the return of Porter Jr. could give them the edge they need against the Grizzlies. The Pythagorean expectation, which measures the expected winning percentage of a team based on their points scored and allowed, correlates positively with the Rockets covering the spread of 6.5. This suggests that the Rockets have a good chance of covering the spread.
The Rockets have won 6 of the last 7 meetings against the Grizzlies, including a 129-122 win on October 21. With the Rockets having such a strong head-to-head record against the Grizzlies and the potential of their roster, they are well-positioned to take on the Grizzlies and have a good chance of covering the 6.5-point spread in the first half.
Paolo Banchero u0.5 3PTM (+180)
Orlando Magic rookie Paolo Banchero has been trending downwards, with an average of 0.7 three points made in his last 20 games, and 0.1 in his last 10. He has gone under the 0.5 three points made line in nine of his last 10 games, and 22 of the 55 games he has played this season. His averages on the road and at home are 1.2 and 1.0, respectively.
Given Banchero's recent form and the Bucks' strong defense at home, it is likely that he will not exceed the 0.5 three points made line in Wednesday's matchup. While Banchero is certainly capable of exceeding expectations, his recent form and the Bucks' impressive home record make it likely that he will go under the 0.5 line. If Banchero is able to buck the trend and perform above expectations, the Magic will have a much better chance at victory, as his three-point shooting can be a valuable asset in their arsenal.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been in sensational form of late, winning their last 15 games in a row. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been at the forefront of their success, recording 33 points and 15 rebounds in the Bucks' 118-104 victory over the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday also stepped up, with Middleton recording 18 points and six assists off the bench, and Holiday adding 14 and eight, respectively. The Bucks' current win streak is the fourth longest in franchise history, and they have won 26 of their 31 home games this season.
Given the Bucks' recent form and their home court advantage, along with Banchero's recent struggles, it is highly likely that the rookie will go under the 0.5 three points made line in Wednesday's matchup. While it's possible that Banchero will surprise everyone and have a strong performance, the evidence points to him going under the line. Sports fans will have to wait and see if the Orlando Magic rookie can defy the odds and out-perform expectations, or if he will add another game to the list of ones he has gone under the line in.
Matisse Thybulle u11.5 Pts + Reb (-125)
Matisse Thybulle has been an integral part of the Trail Blazers' lineup since joining the team, averaging 3.2 points and rebounds per game this season. The fourth-year forward has started all five contests with his new squad and is averaging 8.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 21.6 minutes while shooting 60.0 percent from the field. His defensive production makes him a quality streaming option in category leagues, but his recent form indicates that he won't be relied upon to put up huge numbers.
Thybulle's three-point shot has been a revelation in Portland, but fantasy managers should brace for regression at some point. His production has been on a downward trend over the last 10 games, with his average points and rebounds dropping from 9.4 in the last five games to 7.5 over the last 10, and 5.75 over the last 20. During this period, he has gone over 11.5 points and rebounds only once in the last 10 games, and twice in the last 20. Just looking at the current season, he has gone under this line in 50 of 54 games.
Furthermore, in two games against New Orleans this season, Thybulle has only averaged 2.0 points and rebounds. With these statistics, the odds are stacked against him when it comes to going over 11.5 points and rebounds.
The Trail Blazers are facing a critical game against New Orleans, and Thybulle's performance will be a deciding factor. His defensive production is still a huge plus for the team, but it's clear that his points and rebounds production are trending down. As such, taking the under for Thybulle's points and rebounds appears to be a smart bet given the data.
Jarred Vanderbilt u15.5 Pts + Ast (-120)
If you're looking to cash in on a bet, you'll want to pay close attention to Jarred Vanderbilt and his Wednesday night matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Vanderbilt, a forward for the Los Angeles Lakers, is a bit of a wild card and his performances have been inconsistent this season. Despite that, the under is looking like the best play for this game.
Vanderbilt is averaging 16.26 points and rebounds per game this season, with 14.76 at home and 17.82 on the road. He's had more than 15.5 points and rebounds in 27 games so far, and less than 15.5 points and rebounds in 30. Over the last 20 games, he's averaged 16.5 points and rebounds, but only been over 15.5 points and rebounds in 8. Over the last 10 games, he's averaged 14.8 points and rebounds, and has had more than 15.5 points and rebounds in only 5 games. In the last 5 games, he's averaged 17.4 points and rebounds, but has had more than 15.5 points and rebounds in 3. With Vanderbilt trending lower and lower, it looks like the under is the best bet.
Projections for Vanderbilt's Wednesday night game also point to the under. Data suggests that he'll have less than 10 combined points and rebounds, well below his season average of 16.26 points and rebounds. With the Thunder boasting a solid defensive rating of 114, it's unlikely that Vanderbilt will be able to get much going against them.
The under appears to be the way to go for this matchup. Vanderbilt's downward trend and the Lakers' defensive prowess make it unlikely that he'll exceed the 15.5 points and rebounds line, and betting the under sets you up for a potential payout. Place your bet on the under and get ready to cash in with Jarred Vanderbilt.
Derrick White o14.5 Pts + Reb (-105)
Derrick White has been a consistent contributor for the Boston Celtics this season, averaging 12.0 points and rebounds. In his last 20 games, White's averages have risen to 20.35 points and rebounds, and he's gone over the 14.5 points and rebounds line in 17 games. In the last 10 games, his numbers have increased further to 24.3 points and rebounds, and he's gone over the 14.5 points and rebounds line in each of the last 10 games. In the last 5 games, he's posted an impressive 86 points and 16 boards, and gone over the 14.5 points and rebounds line in all 5 games.
White has faced the Cavaliers twice this season, and has averaged 6.0 points and rebounds in those games. However, if his recent performance is any indication, he's sure to put up a better performance this time around, and it's the perfect opportunity to join the #gamblingtwittersphere in winning big. The Celtics have also been bolstered by the return of Jaylen Brown, who had missed Monday's game due to personal reasons. Though Brown's return could bring a slight downturn in White's playing time and production, his ability to contribute in multiple categories will make him a valuable asset for the Celtics, regardless of his playing time.
Don't miss out on the opportunity to join the #gamblingtwittersphere in winning big Wednesday night with Derrick White! His recent performances make him a reliable asset for the Celtics and a solid bet to go over the 14.5 points and rebounds line.
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