5 picks from data driven predictive model for today's NCAA Basketball slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
Cal Baptist -10.5 (-105)
As the NCAAB season nears its climax, California Baptist University will be looking to make a statement against Texas-Rio Grande Valley in their upcoming showdown. With a spread of -10.5 points, California Baptist is the favorite in this matchup, and for good reason.
For starters, California Baptist holds a 5.7 point advantage in offensive rating over their opponents, meaning they are better equipped to score in a more effective and efficient manner. This advantage is compounded by their 3.2% higher True Shooting % and 2.8% higher effective FG%, showing that California Baptist is more accurate in their shooting than Texas-Rio Grande Valley.
California Baptist has also been on a hot streak lately, having won their last four games. That streak is marked by consistency on offense, averaging 75.2 points per game. With momentum on their side, California Baptist should be able to capitalize on opportunities presented to them and come away with a big win.
California Baptist's roster is also stacked with experienced players. They have five players who have played in more than 20 games this season, including three seniors and two juniors. This experience should prove invaluable in a close game and help the team adjust to any unexpected changes made by their opponents.
All in all, California Baptist looks set to take the win over Texas-Rio Grande Valley. My model makes this Cal Baptist -12.5. With an impressive offensive rating, True Shooting %, and effective FG%, as well as a deep roster of experienced players and recent momentum, I'm laying the 10.5 with California Baptist in this matchup.
Georgetown/Creighton o145.5 (-115)
After suffering a double-overtime loss to Providence and a 79-67 loss to Big East powerhouse Villanova, Creighton (18-11, 12-6 Big East) has an opportunity to get back in the win column in their final home game of the season when they welcome last-place Georgetown (7-23, 2-17) to Omaha, Neb. Wednesday. With a win, the Bluejays could move as high as the No. 3 seed in the Big East tournament.
Under coach Greg McDermott, Creighton has the best defense in the Big East, allowing the fewest points per game (67.4) and lowest shooting percentage (41.5). This should give them a big advantage against Georgetown's struggling offense.
The Hoyas will play their regular-season finale Wednesday after another difficult campaign under coach Patrick Ewing. Georgetown is 75-107 in the six seasons Ewing has coached his alma mater, including 13-48 and 2-36 in conference since the start of last season. Georgetown is locked into the No. 11 seed for the Big East tournament.
Creighton claimed a 63-53 win over Georgetown in the head-to-head matchup on Feb. 1 in Washington, D.C. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton's 7-foot-1 center, led the way with 16 points. Creighton should have an advantage in the paint, as well as on the perimeter, since they have strong shooters at nearly every position.
The Hoyas' Primo Spears put up 26 points and Jay Heath added 19 in their most recent outing, an 88-68 home loss to Providence on Sunday. Georgetown has been able to stretch the floor and shoot 3-pointers well in some games, so Creighton needs to stay disciplined on defense and make sure they don't give up too many open looks.
Creighton's strong offense and Georgetown's weak defense make them the favorite going into Wednesday's game. Creighton is well-positioned to capitalize on their strengths and overcome their weaknesses to put up a lot of points in this matchup. My model makes this total 151.5. For these reasons, I'm taking the OVER 145.5 in this matchup.
Massachusetts +11.5 (-110)
U Mass is on the road against Duquesne with Duquesne being favored by 11.5 as of right now.
I think Massachusetts will cover the +11.5 point spread tonight against Duquesne. Duquesne has a 7 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Duquesne has a 9 point advantage in Offensive Rating. The Dukes have a 9% higher Three Point Attempt Rate, 3% higher True Shooting %, and a 3.5% higher effective FG%.
But Massachusetts has the advantage on the defensive side. Massachusetts has a 6.6% higher Free Throw Attempt Rate which could lead to foul trouble for Duquesne and keep this game close. Duquesne also allows a higher Total Rebound % and Offensive Rebound %.
This number is too high in my opinion. I think the Minutemen have the opportunity to keep this game close even if they do lose. I'll take the points with Massachusetts.
Providence ML (-165)
Wednesday night's Big East matchup between the Providence Friars and the Xavier Musketeers promises to be a close one. Despite Xavier's impressive record, Providence appears to be in a strong position.
The Friars have a higher Offensive Rating than Xavier, with 112.3 compared to the Musketeers' 112.4. This suggests that the Friars' offense could give them an advantage in the game. Additionally, Providence has the edge on defense, with an Opponents Offensive Rating of 99.9 compared to Xavier's 102. Providence also holds the edge in effective FG%, allowing opponents a FG% of 48.5%, while Xavier's stands at 50.5%. Furthermore, Providence is the home team, which could provide an additional boost.
Leading the charge for Providence is Bryce Hopkins, who is averaging 16.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. On the other side, Xavier is powered by Souley Boum, who is averaging 16.5 points per game and has a 42.3% three-point shooting percentage. Xavier also has Colby Jones, who is averaging 14.4 points, 4.2 assists, and 1.5 steals over the last 10 games.
In the last 10 games, Providence has a 7-3 record, averaging 78.5 points, 34.7 rebounds, 16.4 assists, 6.0 steals, and 5.0 blocks per game while shooting 46.0% from the field. Xavier, in comparison, has a 6-4 record over the same period, averaging 78.7 points, 32.2 rebounds, 19.3 assists, 6.4 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game while shooting 49.5% from the field.
Providence appears to have a solid chance at victory in Wednesday night's matchup, due to their higher Offensive Rating, defensive edge, and home-court advantage. Although Xavier has been impressive this season, the Friars seem well-equipped to take the win.
SE Missouri State -6.5 (-110)
SE Missouri State faces Lindenwood in the OVC Championship Tournament. SEMO St is currently favored by 6.5 in this matchup.
I think Southeast Missouri State will cover the -6.5 point spread tonight against Lindenwood. Southeast Missouri State has a 4.28 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and a 3.39 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Southeast Missouri State plays at a faster tempo, averaging 5 more possessions per 40 minutes. Southeast Missouri State has a Free Throw Attempt Rate that is 9.8% higher than Lindenwood, a 5.5% higher Three Point Attempt Rate, and a 5.2% higher Assist %.
Lindenwood is 11-20 on the year, 6-12 in conference play. When looking at where Lindenwood stands in several statistic/analytical metrics, there are several offensive and defensive ranks below 250th out of 363.
Lindenwood has struggled this year. I think SEMO St will capitalize on opportunities and cover the 6.5. I'm laying the points with the Redhawks.
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