2 picks and 3 props from data driven predictive model for tonight's NBA slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
ATL Hawks 1H -3.5 (-110)
Tuesday’s matchup between the Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks is a game with high stakes for both teams. The Wizards (28-32) are looking to improve their postseason chances while the Hawks (31-30) are trying to hold on to the final spot in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. With Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup due to a knee injury, the Wizards will have to rely on their backcourt of Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to make up the offensive production. The Hawks, on the other hand, will look to Trae Young and their deep roster of shooters.
The Hawks have been a solid team on their home court this season, going 17-16 against the spread (ATS) as the home team. The Wizards, meanwhile, have been struggled to cover on the road, registering a 14-19 ATS record. Despite the absence of Porzingis, the Wizards have a chance of covering the spread with their backcourt leading the charge.
The Hawks have been an offensive powerhouse over the past five games, scoring 125.8 points per game, good for third in the NBA. The Washington Wizards have also been impressive on offense, averaging 111.4 points per game over that same time span, which ranks them 19th. The Hawks have the offensive capabilities to keep up with the Wizards, even with Porzingis out of the lineup.
The Hawks’ Pythagorean +/-, which measures the expected points scored and allowed per game, also reflects their potential to cover the spread. It currently stands at -3.7, which correlates with the 1st Half Spread of -3.5. This indicates that the Hawks are likely to cover the spread, even with the absence of Porzingis.
In conclusion, the Atlanta Hawks appear to have the edge to cover the -3.5 spread against the Washington Wizards on Tuesday. The Hawks have a deep roster of shooters and have been an offensive powerhouse over the past five games. They also have the support of their Pythagorean +/-, which correlates well with the 1st Half Spread.
CHI Bulls/TOR Raptors 1H u107 (-110)
The Chicago Bulls will visit the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night with the hopes of gaining an edge in the playoff race. Currently the Bulls are in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, 1 1/2 games behind the ninth-place Raptors. This game is especially important for the Bulls, as the tenth-place Wizards are just one-half game ahead of them.
The Bulls will look to use their tenacious play to gain an edge in the game. In their most recent victory against the Washington Wizards, the Bulls scored 102 points off of 8 Wizards turnovers and held them to only 28 points in the fourth quarter. This type of defensive effort has been seen from the Bulls all season, and if they can continue to bring that same intensity to the game against the Raptors, they could very well gain the edge.
DeMar DeRozan has been a key factor in the Bulls success lately. After being traded from the Raptors to Chicago, DeRozan has been able to lead the Bulls to their second consecutive victory with 29 points against the Wizards on Sunday. His offensive prowess will be key if the Bulls want to gain the edge over the Raptors.
The Raptors have also been playing well lately, winning seven of their last nine games. Unfortunately, their season best four-game winning streak ended Sunday with a 118-93 road loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Despite the setback, the Raptors will look to use their home court advantage to their advantage against the Bulls.
The Raptors were playing without Fred VanVleet in their loss to the Cavaliers, and his absence was certainly felt. Pascal Siakam led the Raptors with 25 points, and Jakob Poeltl had 13 points and nine rebounds, but the Raptors struggled to find their offensive rhythm without VanVleet. If the Raptors can get VanVleet back in the lineup and find their offensive rhythm, they may have a good shot at gaining the edge over the Bulls.
In order to gain the edge over the Raptors, the Bulls will need to continue their defensive intensity and capitalize on offensive opportunities. With DeMar DeRozan leading the offensive charge and their tenacious defensive play, the Bulls could very well gain the crucial edge in the playoff race when they visit the Raptors on Tuesday night.
This is a historically profitable matchup when examining 1H unders. I'm taking the 1H under at 107.
Matisse Thybulle (POR) u10.5 Points + Rebounds (+100)
Matisse Thybulle has been a pleasant addition to the Portland Trail Blazers since being traded from the Philadelphia 76ers. He has started in all four of his appearances and has averaged 7.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.0 combined blocks and steals in 29.8 minutes per game. He has been an active presence on the defensive end of the court, making him an attractive option for fantasy managers looking for steals or blocks.
However, caution should be taken when starting Thybulle, particularly against the Golden State Warriors. In only two games this season has he had more than 10.5 points and rebounds, with fewer than 10.5 points and rebounds recorded in 51 games. In his sole game against the Warriors this season, Thybulle recorded 5.0 points and rebounds.
Considering the last 20 games, Thybulle is averaging 7.75 points and rebounds, with more than 10.5 points and rebounds in 16 games. Over the last 10 games, he is averaging 5.0 points and rebounds with more than 10.5 points and rebounds in 10 games. Over the last five games, he has averaged 9.4 points and rebounds, with more than 10.5 points and rebounds in five games.
The latest trends suggest Thybulle is progressing, however, he has gone under this line in seven of his last 10 games. It should be noted that Thybulle has yet to face the Warriors since joining the Blazers, and has had a limited impact against other challenging opponents. His upside is still high and he is worth taking a chance on in most fantasy leagues, particularly with Portland having a four-game week.
In the end, the recent trends appear to point to an uptick for Thybulle, however, his production against tough opponents suggests that he may not reach the 10.5-point and rebound mark against Golden State. Fantasy managers should consider other centers with four matchups on their schedule this week due to this uncertainty.
OG Anunoby (TOR) u12.5 Points (-105)
OG Anunoby has been an important part of the Toronto Raptors this season, averaging 16.4 points per game, 18.42 points at home, and 14.29 points on the road. Of his 48 games played, he has scored more than 12.5 points in 36 contests and fewer than 12.5 points in 12.
In the last 20 games, Anunoby has averaged 13.2 points, going over the 12.5 mark in 12 of them. Over the last 10 games, his scoring has dropped to an average of 9.3 points, going over 12.5 points in 2 games. And in the last 5 games, his average is down to 7.4 points, with no games over the 12.5 mark. This indicates that his scoring has been declining in recent games.
In the two games against the Bulls this season, OG Anunoby has averaged 17.5 points. But considering his recent performance, it appears his scoring has been in a slump. He has gone under 12.5 points in 8 of his last 10 games and failed to reach the mark in the last 5 games.
These trends suggest that taking the under for OG Anunoby's points in the upcoming game against the Bulls is a wise decision. His strong performance against the Bulls this season is being weighed against his recent slump, which makes the under a more likely outcome.
It appears to be a safe bet because it is supported by Anunoby's recent performances, which have been trending downward. His scoring average has decreased from 16.4 to 14.29 in the last 10 games, and his recent games against the Bulls have not been as successful as they were earlier in the season.
OG Anunoby's recent performances suggest that taking the under on his points is a wise decision. His declining trend over the last 10 and 5 games indicates that he is unlikely to reach the 12.5 point mark in the upcoming game against the Bulls. Therefore, taking the under on OG Anunoby's points is a prudent choice for any sports bettor looking to make a profit.
Anthony Edwards u2.5 3PTM (+135)
With the NBA season in full swing, the matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Minnesota Timberwolves is one to watch. Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves' rookie sensation, is facing off against the Clippers and the line for his three points made is set at 2.5.
Data suggests that backing the under may be the smart move. Edwards is averaging 2.7 three pointers made per game this season, but his performance has declined in his last 10 games, when he's only averaging 1.9 three points made and has gone under this line in 7 of those games.
On the road, Edwards has averaged 2.7 three points made per game, and in the last 20 games, he's averaging 2.9 three points made per game. In his last 5 games, he's only averaging 2.0 three points made and has gone over this line in only 2 of those games.
In two games against the Clippers, Edwards has only made 1.0 three pointer per game. His struggles against the Clippers suggest that he may find it difficult to hit the over. Even though Edwards has had a few games this season where he exceeded the line, the evidence suggests that his production is waning and the chances of him hitting the over in this matchup are slim.
For those considering backing the under for Anthony Edwards' three points made, the data indicates that this may be the best bet. Edwards has been seeing a decrease in his three point production, and his difficulty against the Clippers suggests that he will have trouble hitting the over. The line is set at 2.5, and with Edwards going under this line in 7 of his last 10 games, it appears that backing the under is a wise decision.
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