4 picks from data driven predictive model. Coming off another clean sweep 4-0 day. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
Vermont -18.5 (-105)
Vermont is favored by 18.5 against Albany. Vermont has a 10.5 point advantage in Adj Off Efficiency and an 11 point advantage in Adj Def Efficiency.
Vermont possesses a True Shooting % of 56.7% compared to 51.8% for Albany. Vermont has an eFG% 54.5% compared to 48.2% for Albany. Albany does not take care of the ball as well as Vermont, having a Turnover% of 16.9% compared to 13.1% for Vermont.
Albany allows a True Shooting % of 57.9% and an eFG% of 54.7%. Compare that to Vermont allowing a 54.5% True Shooting % and an eFG% of 51.7%.
This is a big number at 18.5. But I am going to lay this number with Vermont.
New Hampshire -5.5 (-110)
New Hampshire is favored by 5.5 against NJIT. New Hampshire has a 0.5 point advantage in Adj Off Efficiency and a 4.5 point advantage in Adj Def Efficiency.
Almost identical offensive analytics for the two teams. True Shooting % differs by less than 1% - 50.3% for New Hampshire and 51.2% for NJIT. eFG% differs by 1.4% - 47.3% for New Hampshire and 48.7% for NJIT. New Hampshire has a slight advantage in ball security - Turnover % of 13.4% compared to 14.5% for NJIT.
The key advantage for New Hampshire is defense. New Hampshire is allowing a 2.2% lower True Shooting % and a 3.1% lower eFG%. Opponent's offensive rebound % is also 2.7% lower in favor of the Wildcats.
With these factors in mind, I'm laying the points with New Hampshire.
Mississippi State -15.5 (-115)
Mississippi State holds a 1.5 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and a 18 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, making them the favorite to win against South Carolina. These numbers demonstrate the team's balanced play on both offense and defense and the strong performance of key players like Tolu Smith.
South Carolina, on the other hand, has had a difficult season. The Gamecocks are 10-19, with a 3-13 record in the SEC. They were recently dealt an 85-45 loss by Tennessee, and while they have managed to push No. 2 Alabama to overtime, they lack the offensive and defensive firepower to challenge the Bulldogs.
Ultimately, Mississippi State is the better team in this matchup. The Bulldogs have a clear edge over the Gamecocks in terms of offensive and defensive production, and their recent win over Texas A&M is evidence of their ability to take on tough competition. Additionally, Mississippi State has the added motivation of needing to secure a win in order to stay in contention for a possible postseason position. For these reasons, I'm laying the points with Mississippi State.
Robert Morris -14.5 (-105)
Robert Morris is favored by 14.5 against IUPUI. Robert Morris has a 4 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and a 13.5 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Robert Morris attempts three-point shots at a 7.9% higher clip than IUPUI. Robert Morris is the better rebounding team, gathering in rebounds at a 2.3% higher percentage. They share the basketball better with an assist % of 53.9% compared to 46% for IUPUI. IUPUI struggles taking care of the ball on offense, boasting a 20.5% Turnover % compared to 16.9% for Robert Morris.
On the defensive side, Robert Morris has the advantage in Opp True Shooting % (5.4% edge), Opp eFG% (5.2% edge), Turnover % (2.3% edge), and Opp Offensive Rebound % (4.8% edge).
Taking all of that into consideration, I am laying the points with Robert Morris.
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