4 picks from data driven predictive model for 2/27/2023 College Basketball slate. Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
West Virginia +4 (-115)
West Virginia and Iowa State are set to face off in a Big 12 battle this weekend, with the Mountaineers having an 8-point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency according to KenPom. Despite a rocky season, West Virginia has a chance to make it to the NCAA tournament, and they will be looking to use this game as a stepping stone.
The Mountaineers have a strong offense, led by Erik Stevenson, who scored 23 points against Kansas. Four players finished in double figures for West Virginia in that game, with Tre Mitchell scoring 20 points, and Kedrian Johnson and Emmitt Matthews Jr. both putting up 15 points.
On the other hand, Iowa State has not had the best season, having lost three straight games and seven of nine. Their last game against Oklahoma saw them score 14 points in the first 7:07, only to be held to 36 for the rest of the game, ending with a season-low total of 50. Gabe Kalscheur and Tamin Lipsey were the only Cyclones to finish in double figures and the team shot 31 percent from the floor, including 26.7 percent from 3-point range. Iowa State has a 6.7-point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to KenPom.
Given West Virginia's advantage in offensive efficiency, as well as Iowa State's lack of offensive firepower, it appears the Mountaineers are likely to come away with a win. Should West Virginia be able to stay consistent on both ends of the floor, they should have a good chance of covering the 4-point spread, or even more. A victory for West Virginia could be a statement to the Big 12 and NCAA tournament selection committees that the Mountaineers are ready to compete. I'll take the points with West Virginia.
North Carolina -8.5 (-105)
With the regular season winding down, North Carolina Tar Heels need a win against Florida State in their final two games in order to secure a 20-win season. The Tar Heels have managed to build momentum in their last two games, with Pete Nance leading the way with 22 points in Saturday's 71-63 victory over Virginia.
At the same time, Florida State will be looking to build on their 85-84 win over No.13 Miami, with Matthew Cleveland and Darin Green Jr. each chipping in 20 points for the Seminoles.
Statistically, North Carolina has the edge over Florida State, with a 6.3 point advantage in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and a 10.6 point advantage in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This gives the Tar Heels a solid chance at picking up a win on Monday night and reaching the 20-win mark for the season. For North Carolina to capitalize on this opportunity, they must rely on the strength of their players and maintain their momentum. My model makes this North Carolina -11. For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the Tar Heels.
Southern/Florida A&M u132.5 (-105)
Southern Jaguares are on the road against Florida A&M Rattlers. The total in this game is currently at 132.5. My model makes this game 126, giving it a 6 point edge.
Coming into this game, Southern is averaging 73.1 points per game and allowing 72.3 points per game. In their last 5, Southern has averaged 66 points per game and allowing 69 points per game (which is slightly skewed by an OT game against Grambling). The Jaguars play at a fast tempo, ranked 24th in college basketball. However, they are ranked 318th in Adj Off Efficiency according to KenPom, meaning they play fast but don't convert on offense. Southern also is ranked 216th in Adj Def Efficiency.
On the other side, Florida A&M is averaging scoring 58.2 and allowing 69.6 points per game this season. The Rattlers are averaging scoring 62.8 and allowing 66 points per game in their last 5 games. Florida A&M squeezes the life out of games, playing at a tempo ranked 309th. But the Rattlers also have an issue scoring, they rank 360th in Adj Off Efficiency. Florida A&M has an Adj Def Efficiency ranked 266th according to KenPom.
Given these teams poor abilities to convert on the offensive end and Florida A&M's slow tempo. I'm taking the under in this game.
Florida Gulf Coast/Queens u153.5 (-105)
Florida Gulf Coast goes on the road to face Queens (NC) tonight. The total in this game is 153.5 and I am on the under. My model makes this total 149.5, giving it a 4 point edge.
Florida Gulf Coast plays at a tempo ranked 229th in college basketball. The Eagles have an Adj Off Efficiency ranked 153rd and an Adj Def Efficiency ranked 216th. Florida Gulf Coast is averaging 74.2 points per game in their last 5 and giving up an average of 71.6 points per game in their last five. That's an average total of 145.8 over their last 5.
On the flip side, Queens plays at a tempo ranked 46th. The Royals have an Adj Off Efficiency ranked 112th and an Adj Def Efficiency ranked 315th. Queens is averaging scoring 73.2 points per game and averaging allowing 79.6 points per game in their last 5 games. That is an average total of 152.8 over the last 5.
For this total to hit, both teams would need to have an above average scoring and points allowed night. For these reasons, I'll take the under 153.5.
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