9 picks from data driven predictive model for Saturday's massive college basketball slate. Odds and lines according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
Santa Clara -6.5
Santa Clara on the road against San Diego. My model makes this game Santa Clara -17. Both teams are level in terms of offensive efficiency with only .03 points separating them. However, Santa Clara is a significantly better team defensively boasting a 12 point advantage in defensive efficiency. Santa Clara has the slight edge in tempo, averaging about 1.5 possessions more per game. Santa Clara's defensive edge will help them separate in this game and cover this spread. I'm laying the points with Santa Clara.
Kent State -10.5
Kent State on the road against Bowling Green. My model makes this Kent State -20. Kent State has a 2.5 point advantage in offensive efficiency and a 17.5 point advantage in defensive efficiency. Kent State's offensive advantage and significant defensive advantage points towards them handling business this game. I'm laying the points with Kent State.
Long Beach State -13.5
Long Beach State is at home today against Cal St. Northridge. My model makes this Long Beach State -22. Big tempo disparity in this game. Long Beach State averages 7.5 more possessions per 40 minutes compared to Cal St. Northridge. Long Beach State has a 9.25 advantage in offensive efficiency and a 5.5 point advantage in defensive efficiency. Long Beach State's superior offense and defense paired with their faster tempo points towards them running away with it today against Cal St. Northridge. I'm laying the points with Long Beach State.
Pitt -5.5
Pitt is at home against Syracuse. My model makes this Pitt -11. These teams play at a similar tempo, less than .5 possession per 40 minutes difference. Pitt has a 2.5 point advantage in offensive efficiency and a 4 point advantage in defensive efficiency. Syracuse has been struggling as of late. Pitt being at home, combined with their advantages in offensive and defensive efficiency suggest Pitt is the team to back in this one.
Kansas -9.5
Kansas hosts West Virginia. My model makes this Kansas -13. The defending champs are coming into fine form as of late. Slight tempo advantage for the Jayhawks in this game. Kansas has a 6 point advantage in defensive efficiency. When considering their talent and analytics advantages, being at home, and their recent play - I'm laying the points with the Jayhawks at home.
Southern -5.5
Southern is at home against Bethune Cookman today. My model makes this Southern -13. Southern has a 2.75 point advantage in offensive efficiency and a 9 point advantage in defensive efficiency. Southern plays at a faster tempo, averaging over 2 more possessions per 40 minutes. I'll lay the points with Southern at home.
Akron -14.5
Akron is at home against Western Michigan. My model makes this Akron -22.5. Akron has a 5.25 point advantage in offensive efficiency in this matchup. The Zips biggest advantage is in defensive efficiency where they have a 13.5 point advantage. Western Michigan plays at a faster tempo which will fall into Akron's offensive and defensive advantages, allowing the Zips to stretch out a lead. I'm laying the points with Akron.
Tennessee -23.5
The Volunteers are hosting the Gamecocks of South Carolina today. My model makes this Tennessee -28.5. This is a big number, but there is a big talent disparity in this game. The Volunteers have a 7.5 point advantage in offensive efficiency and a massive 21 point advantage in defensive efficiency. I think Tennessee blows the doors off South Carolina. I'm taking the Volunteers.
Houston -21.5
The #1 team in the country goes on the road to East Carolina. My model makes this game Houston -28. Houston has a 17 point advantage in offensive efficiency and a 15.5 point advantage in defensive efficiency. East Carolina plays at faster tempo, averaging 4 more possessions per 40 minutes. If East Carolina tries to push tempo, Houston's superior talent will stretch and extend a lead. I'm laying the points with the Cougars.
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