3 picks from data driven predictive model for tonight's NHL slate. Odds and lines according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
MON Canadians +1.5 (-165)
The Montreal Canadiens are riding a wave of momentum and have all the statistical indicators pointing to a successful showing against the Philadelphia Flyers. The Canadiens have won five consecutive games against the spread in their last five road games against the Flyers, showing they are in a good position to cover the 1.5-point spread in this matchup.
Montreal has been playing consistent hockey in recent weeks, and their Pythagorean and Expected Goals For (xGF) metrics indicate they should come out on top. The Pythagorean is calculated by taking the number of goals scored and goals allowed by a team and using that information to determine the expected number of wins and losses. The xGF, on the other hand, is a metric that takes into account the quality of chances created and allowed by a team.
The Canadiens have also been bolstered by the addition of veteran forward Chris Tierney, who was claimed off waivers from the Florida Panthers. Tierney is a left-handed center with a lot of experience who should be able to provide an offensive spark to the Canadiens' lineup. Meanwhile, Montreal has also been able to fill in for injured players. Although the team was unable to sign forward Sean Monahan due to his ongoing injury issues, they were able to acquire defenseman Henry Thrun, who has opted to pursue free agency at the conclusion of his college career.
Montreal has also been able to pull off surprising wins despite being outmanned at every turn, proving they have the winning spirit and determination to succeed. Goalie Sam Montembeault made 37 saves in their most recent game against the New Jersey Devils, while five different goal-scorers stepped up to help the Canadiens pull away for a 5-2 victory. Montreal also recently acquired defenseman Dylan Mayo from the Vegas Golden Knights, giving them another reliable presence on the blue line.
As the Montreal Canadiens prepare to face the Philadelphia Flyers on Friday night, they have all the statistical edge and roster talent they need to come out on top and cover the spread. With their recent success, the addition of Chris Tierney and Henry Thrun, and the acquisition of Dylan Mayo, the Canadiens should be the team to bet on this Friday night.
NY Islanders -1.5 (+190)
The New York Islanders have all the makings of a successful outing against the Los Angeles Kings. With a top-ranked Pythagorean/- that suggests a high likelihood of winning and covering the spread, the Islanders are the logical choice in this matchup. The Islanders have been on a winning streak and have held their opponents to low-scoring games, giving them the edge on the ice.
The Kings, on the other hand, have had an inconsistent season and have struggled against their opponents. The Kings have had difficulty away from home, with 6 of their last 7 away games going over the total. This trend is likely to continue, leaving the Islanders with an advantage in this matchup.
The Islanders also have the upper hand with a powerful offense. Led by dynamic players like Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala, the Islanders have the potential to put up big numbers on the scoreboard. Kopitar has been on fire, with eight goals and 18 points during his last 12 contests, including seven multi-point efforts. Fiala has also impressed, with 11 goals and 49 points in 73 games since the start of January, including nine multi-point performances. Combined with the strong defense of Sean Durzi and the goaltending of Pheonix Copley, the Islanders are well-positioned to cover the -1.5 spread.
Copley is coming off an 18-save effort in Tuesday's 2-1 loss to Minnesota. He has a 17-4-2 record this season with a 2.73 GAA and a .902 save percentage. The Devils rank eighth in the league in goals per game, with 3.45. Copley is 8-6-3 since the beginning of January, and his excellent performance is a vital asset to the Islanders.
The Islanders have all the components needed for a successful game against the Kings. With a top-ranked Pythagorean +/- that indicates a strong probability of victory, a formidable offense, and a steadfast defense and goaltending, the Islanders are well-equipped to cover the -1.5 spread. The Kings have had an inconsistent season, and the odds are stacked against them in this game. It is my belief that the Islanders will cover the spread and come out on top in this matchup.
COL Avalanche ML (-110)
On Friday night, the Winnipeg Jets and the Colorado Avalanche will compete in a crucial matchup. The Jets are currently one point behind the Central division-leading Dallas Stars, making the possibility of them winning the division still realistic. However, the Avalanche (31-19-5) are four points behind them with three games in hand.
The Avalanche have the advantage in terms of Pythagorean /- which could point to their ability to cover the spread. Pythagorean /- is a statistic that measures the expected outcomes of a team based on their goals scored and goals allowed. The Avalanche boast a +17.7 score in this statistic, which indicates that they are expected to win and cover the spread.
The total has gone under in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games, and 5 of their last 6 home games. This suggests that their offense may be struggling to generate enough scoring opportunities to keep up with the Avalanche. Meanwhile, Colorado possesses a wealth of scoring talent, which they may be able to exploit against a weak Winnipeg defense.
Making matters worse for the Jets, superstar defenseman Cale Makar is projected to miss Friday's game due to a concussion. Makar is one of the few players in the NHL who can make a difference on a nightly basis, and his absence will be felt. To compensate for Makar's absence, the Jets' penalty kill will need to be at their best; they boast the second-best penalty kill in the NHL this season with a kill rate of 84.3%. However, their strength may not be enough to stop the Avalanche's talent-heavy power play.
The goaltending situation is currently up in the air for this game, which could be a major factor in the outcome. Alexandar Georgiev is projected to start for Colorado, while Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg's starting goaltender, is having a Vezina-caliber campaign, with 29.37 goals saved above expected, trailing just the Vezina favorite, Ilya Sorokin.
Overall, the market is giving Colorado an advantage in their current form, and their talent-heavy power play unit could be able to generate enough offense to win this game. With the Pythagorean /- and a lack of scoring from Winnipeg, the Avalanche may have the edge against the Jets and could pull out the road victory tonight.
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