2 picks from our data driven predictive model for tonight's NBA slate. Lines and odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
MIN Timberwolves -6.5 (-110)
The Minnesota Timberwolves are making a strong push to reach the playoffs, and their meeting with the Charlotte Hornets is the perfect chance to do so. The Timberwolves have an impressive 113.7 offensive rating, having shot 1,434 free throws and attempted 2,042 three-pointers, with a true shooting percentage of 59.4 and an eFG% of 56.0.
The Timberwolves have allowed 125.4 points on average in their last 5 games, ranking third-worst in that span, and allowing opponents to shoot above 51% from the field. The Hornets have won their last two games and have a 22-41 record against the Timberwolves in their last six meetings. However, the Timberwolves are still in a strong position to win this matchup.
The Hornets' recent trade of Mason Plumlee may give the Timberwolves an even bigger advantage. The Timberwolves are not a team to be taken lightly. They have gone over the total in six of their last seven games and have scored an average of 112.33 points in their last three games, demonstrating that they can stay competitive.
The Hornets will need to bring out all their firepower if they want to keep up with the Timberwolves. They may get Kelly Oubre Jr. back, who has averaged 20.2 points per game this season and could add a spark to their offense. Nevertheless, the Timberwolves are well-equipped to cover this spread.
SAC Kings +7 (-115)
The Sacramento Kings have the edge heading into Friday's matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers. Sacramento is coming off a solid win against the Portland Trail Blazers and Russell Westbrook is set to make his Clippers' debut in this game. Unfortunately, the Clippers are dealing with injury issues, with Ivica Zubac out.
The Kings have the advantage when it comes to offensive rating, with a 118.4 compared to the Clippers' 113.8. Sacramento's free throw attempt rate of 1,445 is also higher than the Clippers' 1,433, adding to their edge. In addition, the Kings boast an impressive true shooting percentage of 60.8 and an effective field goal percentage of 57.0, both higher than the Clippers' 57.9 and 54.3, respectively.
Sacramento has been a competitive Western Conference force this season, with a 33-25 record. Meanwhile, the Clippers have had a somewhat inconsistent season, with a 33-28 record. Even with the addition of Westbrook, the Clippers may take some time to adjust to their new lineup and match the level of success they had before the break.
Given the data and the context of the game, it appears that the Kings have a good chance to cover the 7-point spread. Sacramento has a clear advantage in offensive rating, and their higher rate of free throw attempts, true shooting percentage, and effective field goal percentage give them the edge they need to take down the Clippers. Although the Clippers may put up a fight, the Kings have the tools to come away with the victory.
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