5 picks from data driven predictive model for Friday's college basketball slate. All lines and odds are according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
Troy -9.5 (-115)
The Trojans have made a strong impression this season with an overall record of 18-12 and a 10-7 record in the Sun Belt Conference. At home, Troy stands at an impressive 10-3 record and is looking to add another win to its tally. The Chanticleers, on the other hand, come in with an overall record of 11-18 and a 5-12 record in the Sun Belt. Unfortunately, Coastal Carolina has had difficulty in conference games, losing 8 out of 11 games by 10 or more points.
When it comes to defensive efficiency, Troy has the upper hand. According to KenPom, the Trojans are ranked 54th nationally in defensive efficiency while the Chanticleers are ranked 181st. This means that the Trojans could have an easier time containing the Chanticleers' offense and keeping their score low.
My projections are predicting Troy to take the win by 17 points. The Trojans are led by Christyon Eugene, who is averaging 11.6 points per game, and Duke Miles, who has been averaging 14 points over the last 10 games. Coastal Carolina is led by Josh Uduje and Antonio Daye Jr., who have each been averaging 13.5 and 11.6 points, respectively, over the last 10 games.
The Trojans and the Chanticleers meet for the first time in conference play this season, and Troy is in an advantageous position. With an impressive defense and a projected margin of victory of 17 points, I'm laying the points with Troy.
VCU -8.5 (-120)
With an impressive record of 21-7 and 12-3 in the A-10, the Rams have proved to be a tough opponent this season. VCU boasts an impressive offensive efficiency and strong defense. The Rams are 13-3 in home games and are sixth in the A-10 with 32.6 points per game in the paint. VCU is led by Jalen DeLoach, who averages 7.6 points in the paint.
The Richmond Spiders have gone 7-8 against A-10 opponents and are fourth in the A-10 with 24.9 defensive rebounds per game. Tyler Burton averages 6.5 rebounds per game and 19 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.6 steals for the Spiders. Jason Roche averages 1.6 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games for Richmond.
VCU, led by Adrian Baldwin Jr. (averaging 12.7 points, 5.7 assists and 2.5 steals) and Brandon Johns Jr. (averaging 11.6 points over the last 10 games), have an impressive 8-2 record in their last 10 games. The Rams average 70.2 points, 33.1 rebounds, 13.0 assists, 8.5 steals, and 3.4 blocks per game while shooting 46.5% from the field. On the other hand, the Spiders have a 4-6 record in their last 10 games, averaging 71.4 points, 28.0 rebounds, 11.7 assists, 5.8 steals and 1.9 blocks while shooting 44.2% from the field.
These stats and trends suggest that VCU has a good chance to cover the spread. The Rams have an impressive record, coupled with efficient offensive and defensive strategies. VCU plays at a faster tempo than Richmond, with higher offensive and defensive efficiency. My model projects hits game at VCU -13 point, I'm laying the points with the VCU Rams.
Georgia State +14.5 (-105)
The James Madison Dukes come into this matchup with a 20-10 record, 11-6 in Sun Belt play, and a 10-3 record at home. However, the Georgia State Panthers have a 1-4 record in games decided by less than 4 points, suggesting that their 10-19 overall record does not fully reflect their resilience and drive to win.
Dwon Odom is shooting 44.2% and averaging 13.0 points, and Brenden Tucker is averaging 13.4 points over the last 10 games for the Panthers. Furthermore, the Panthers have the ability to exploit the Dukes’ slow tempo, as they are fourth in the Sun Belt with 24.2 defensive rebounds per game, led by Takal Molson's 3.8 rebounds per game.
The Dukes boast Terrence Edwards who scores 12.9 points per game and averages 5.0 rebounds. Takal Molson is also averaging 9.9 points and 5.4 rebounds over the last 10 games. However, with the Panthers’ talent and determination, the Dukes’ offensive and defensive advantages could be negated.
Given the Panthers’ resilience in close games, and the Dukes’ tendency to play at a slow tempo, the spread of 14 in favor of the Dukes appears too generous. I believe the Panthers have the talent and drive to cover the number in this matchup, and the Dukes should not take this matchup lightly. I'm taking the points with Georgia State.
UNLV -9.5 (+100)
UNLV Rebels have the upper hand heading into Friday night's matchup against the Air Force Falcons at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. The Rebels are 8-6 in their home court, and third in the MWC with 8.8 offensive rebounds per game, led by David Muoka who averages 1.9. Meanwhile, the Falcons have gone 5-11 against MWC opponents and rank third in the MWC with 15.4 assists per game, led by Ethan Taylor who averages 3.3.
UNLV's Luis Rodriguez averages 11.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game, while Elijah Harkless has scored 19.6 points over the last 10 games. Jake Heidbreder averages 2.2 made 3-pointers per game for the Falcons, scoring 14.9 points while shooting 39.2% from beyond the arc. On the other hand, Ryan Petraitis averages 11.6 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists over the last 10 games for Air Force.
Given the Rebels' 4-6 record in their last 10 games, scoring 72.5 points, 27.0 rebounds, 11.6 assists, 7.9 steals, and 3.4 blocks per game while shooting 43.5% from the field, and the Falcons' 2-8 record in their last 10 games, scoring 64.0 points, 23.3 rebounds, 14.6 assists, 4.2 steals, and 3.8 blocks per game while shooting 47.7% from the field, UNLV appears to have a clear edge.
For these reasons, it is easy to see why the Rebels are the likely pick to cover the spread of -9.5. UNLV plays at a significantly faster tempo than the Falcons, and have the advantage in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to KenPom. Additionally, my model projects UNLV to win by 14. Considering these factors, I'm laying the points with UNLV.
Saint Peter's/Canisius u131.5 (-110)
The total has gone under in all of the last 5 matchups between these two teams. The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 times when Saint Peter's was on the road against Canisius.
Saint Peter's plays at a tempo ranked 346th out of 363. The Peacock's rank 336th in terms of Adj Off Efficiency, according to KenPom. Saint Peter's ranks 245th in terms of Adj Def Efficiency, according to KenPom.
Canisius plays at a tempo ranked 170th out of 363. The Golden Griffins rank 221st in Adj Off Efficiency, according to KenPom. Canisius is ranked 294th in Adj Def Efficiency, according to KenPom.
My model is projecting this total at 126. The data shows this will not be a high tempo game between two bad offensive and defensive teams. For these reasons, I'm taking the under.
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