2 picks from data driven predictive model for tonight's NBA slate in the first night back from the All-Star Break.
Celtics -8 (-115)
The Celtics' dynamic duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are making a huge impact on both ends of the floor. Tatum is averaging 30.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, while Brown is contributing 26.5 points and 7.0 rebounds. As a team, the Celtics have the best net rating in the league (+6.1), and are in the top three of the NBA in offensive rating, scoring nearly 1.18 points per possession. The Celtics also lead the league in 3-pointers per game (5.7), 3-point accuracy (941), free throw accuracy (1,077), turnovers per game (16.1), and defensive rebounding (79%).
The Indiana Pacers rely on All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton, whose 19.9 points and 10.1 assists per game make him a threat from 3-point range (shooting 39.9% accuracy). The Pacers lead the NBA with 18.8 fast break points per game, while their 26.4 assists per game put them in the top eight of the league. In addition, Indiana is in the top 10 in free throw accuracy (1,118) and grabbing nearly 29% of available offensive rebounds (23.1%).
The Celtics have the advantage of coming out of the All-Star break well-rested, while the Pacers may be a bit rusty. Additionally, the Celtics' Pythagorean Expectation strongly suggests they can cover the spread.
In conclusion, the Celtics have the potential to cover the spread against the Pacers. With a dynamic wing duo, an efficient offense, and a well-rested team, Boston is in a great position ahead of this matchup.
76ers 1H -1 (-115)
Thursday's matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Philadelphia 76ers promises to be an exciting one. While the Grizzlies have had a subpar 4-6 record in the last 10 games, the 76ers have come in hot with a 7-3 record in the same span. These trends also carry over into their records against the spread, with the 76ers boasting a 23-8 record at home and the Grizzlies a less-than-ideal 11-17 on the road.
The Grizzlies will have to face the 76ers without Steven Adams, who is projected to miss three to five weeks with a PCL sprain in his right knee. Luke Kennard, who is averaging 7.8 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.1 assists in 37 games this season, is reportedly dealing with an illness and will be absent for Thursday, giving the 76ers a clear depth advantage. Without Adams, Joel Embiid will have free reign in the paint, making Philadelphia the favorite in this one.
The point total for the game is 229.5, which is relatively high considering these two teams are top 10 in opponent scoring. The 76ers rank third in the league in scoring defense, allowing just 6,296 points this season, while the Grizzlies have allowed 6,396 points. Furthermore, the Grizzlies' dismal 11-17 road record is a cause for concern, as 16 of their 28 road games have ended under the point total.
Taking all of these factors into account, I believe this will be a low-scoring affair with some great defense on display. The 76ers have a strong Pythagorean expectation (+/-) that bodes well for covering the first half spread, making them the favored team for this Thursday matchup. For these reasons, I'm backing the Philadelphia 76ers in this one.
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