Coming off a 4-2 night, 9-2 in the last 11 college basketball picks. 6 bets from data driven predictive model for Thursday's college basketball slate.
UNC Wilmington -10.5 (+100)
The Stony Brook Seawolves (10-19, 6-10 CAA) will take on the UNC Wilmington Seahawks (21-8, 11-5 CAA) at the Seahawks' home court in Wilmington, North Carolina. According to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort, the Seahawks are favored by 10.5 points.
The Seahawks have been impressive at home, with a 10-2 record, and have outscored their opponents by 5.1 points per game. Furthermore, UNC Wilmington has an impressive offensive record, scoring 69.1 points per game. Trazarien White is the Seahawks' top performer, averaging 14.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Maleeck Harden-Hayes is another standout, making 1.8 3-pointers per game over the last 10 games.
The Seawolves have had a difficult season, with a 6-10 record against CAA opponents. Despite averaging 62.8 points, 29.0 rebounds, 12.1 assists, 4.1 steals and 3.0 blocks per game, their opponents have averaged 67.8 points. Kenan Sarvan has been a driving force for Stony Brook, shooting 30.8% from beyond the arc with 1.9 made 3-pointers per game. Frankie Policelli has also been a key contributor, shooting 42.0% and averaging 14.5 points over the past 10 games.
When it comes to tempo, UNC Wilmington has a slight edge. The Seahawks have shot 42.6% from the field, while their opponents have averaged 64.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Seawolves have shot 41.0% from the field, with their opponents averaging 67.8 points. KenPom shows a 6 point advantage in Adj Off Eff and a 9.5 point advantage in Adj Def Eff in favor of UNC Wilmington.
Given the superior offensive and defensive efficiency of UNC Wilmington, the faster pace of their play, and their record at home, I like UNC Wilmington to cover the spread against Stony Brook. While betting can never be certain, the data suggests that placing a wager on UNC Wilmington to cover the spread of -10.5 is a solid choice.
Illinois -5.5 (-115)
As the 2023 NCAAB season nears its end, the rivalry game between No. 21 Northwestern Wildcats (20-7, 11-5 Big Ten) and Illinois Fighting Illini (18-9, 9-7 Big Ten) will be a tightly-contested matchup. The Fighting Illini have the advantage as they hold a 13-2 record on their home court, as well as a strong offensive and defensive efficiency. This makes them a viable pick to cover the -5.5 point spread, according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
On offense, Illinois plays at a faster tempo, averaging 72.0 points per game over the last ten games compared to Northwestern’s 67.7. The Fighting Illini are also more efficient, shooting an effective FG% of 52.2% from the field compared to the Wildcats’ 47.7%. Terrence Shannon Jr. leads the Illinois offense, averaging 17 points per game, while Matthew Mayer is averaging 14.8 points over the past 10 games. For Northwestern, Boo Buie is averaging 17 points and 4.6 assists, and Chase Audige is averaging 15.6 points and 2.5 steals over the past 10 games.
On defense, Illinois is seventh in the Big Ten in team defense, allowing 65.4 points while holding opponents to a 46% effective FG%. The Fighting Illini have the advantage in defensive efficiency over Northwestern, which is allowing 63.6 points to opponents over the past 10 games.
Illinois appears to have the edge in this matchup. With their advantage in offensive and defensive efficiency, the Fighting Illini are a viable pick to cover the -5.5 point spread. Despite Northwestern’s 4-2 record in one-possession games and 8-2 record over the past 10 games, Illinois’ home court advantage and superior offensive and defensive stats make them a sensible pick.
Charleston -9.5 (+100)
When the Towson Tigers travel to Charleston, South Carolina on Thursday to face the Charleston (SC) Cougars, they will be met with a team that is both rested and prepared. The Cougars have gone 15-1 in home games this season, and rank fourth in the CAA in three-point shooting, led by Spencer Legg's impressive 100% clip from beyond the arc.
On the other side of the court, Towson will be looking to rebound from their 87-75 win against the North Carolina A&T Aggies. The Tigers have gone 11-5 in CAA play, and rank second in the CAA in assists per game, led by point guard Cameron Holden who averages 5 assists per game.
Despite the Tigers' strong offensive performance, the Cougars have the edge in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. The Cougars have an offensive efficiency rating of 111 while the Tigers have an offensive efficiency rating of just 102. Furthermore, the Cougars possess a defensive efficiency rating of 97 compared to the Tigers' 105. This superior efficiency gives the Cougars an advantage when it comes to scoring, and should allow them to control the pace of the game.
The Cougars also have an edge when it comes to individual players. Reyne Smith averages 2.7 made 3-pointers per game for the Cougars, scoring 10.6 points while shooting 35.1% from beyond the arc. Dalton Bolon is shooting 44.0% and averaging 13.5 points over the past 10 games for Charleston (SC). For the Tigers, Holden is averaging 14.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, five assists and 1.7 steals, while Nicolas Timberlake is averaging 18.2 points over the last 10 games.
In summary, the Charleston Cougars have the upper hand in both offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as the home court advantage. The Cougars' superior play in both efficiency and individual performance makes them the favored team to cover the -9.5 spread, according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort, against the Towson Tigers.
Sacred Heart -6.5 (-115)
With an edge in offensive efficiency and a faster tempo, Sacred Heart is the smart pick to defeat the spread against St. Francis NY. Sacred Heart has the upper hand in this matchup against St. Francis NY, giving them the tools to cover the -6.5 spread, according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
The Pioneers have been able to take advantage of their opponents mistakes, averaging 13.3 points off of turnovers. Sacred Heart is also averaging 74.2 points per game, good for second in the Northeast Conference. They are shooting 46.8% from the floor, 35.7% from three-point range and 78.6% from the free-throw line. They are also taking advantage of their opponents’ mistakes, averaging 13.3 points off of turnovers. Additionally, they have been able to get out and run, averaging 17.5 fast break points per game.
St. Francis NY, on the other hand, is averaging only 66.1 points per game, which ranks last in the NEC. They are shooting 42.7% from the floor, 32.7% from three-point range, and 66.3% from the free-throw line. They are also struggling when it comes to turning their opponents’ mistakes into points, averaging only 11.2 points off of turnovers. They have been unable to get out and run, averaging only 11.8 fast break points per game.
Sacred Heart also boasts a strong defensive efficiency. The Pioneers are allowing their opponents to shoot 42.9% from the floor, 36.4% from three-point range, and 68.3% from the free-throw line. They are also doing a good job of forcing turnovers, averaging 13.4 per game. In comparison, St. Francis NY is allowing their opponents to shoot 47.6% from the floor, 35.6% from three-point range, and 75.8% from the free-throw line. They are also struggling to force turnovers, averaging only 10.1 per game.
Given their advantages in offensive efficiency and tempo, Sacred Heart is the smart pick to cover the -6.5 spread. Their scoring ability and ability to take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes will be the difference in this game. Furthermore, their defense will be able to keep St. Francis NY in check, giving them an even bigger edge. So if you’re looking for a team to pick, I believe that Sacred Heart is the best choice to cover the spread.
Cleveland State -13.5 (-105)
Cleveland State is expected to dominate Green Bay, with their considerable advantage in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Cleveland State Vikings and Green Bay Phoenix are set to clash in a captivating matchup of two teams with contrasting styles. The Vikings have the upper hand in this game, due to their considerable advantage in offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Vikings have been a force on the offensive end, averaging 81.9 points per game this season. That places them second in the Horizon League in offensive efficiency, just behind Northern Kentucky. The Phoenix, on the other hand, rank sixth in the league, averaging 73.7 points per game. This disparity could prove to be a deciding factor in this game.
Defensively, the Vikings have been just as impressive this season. They lead the Horizon League in defensive efficiency, allowing 66.3 points per game. The Phoenix, meanwhile, are seventh in the league in this category, with 73.3 points per game. This is an area where the Vikings have a clear advantage and could use it to their advantage in this game.
In addition, the Vikings have been on a hot streak lately, winning seven of their last eight games. This includes victories over two of the top teams in the Horizon League in Northern Kentucky and Oakland. The Phoenix, however, have been struggling lately, losing five of their last six games. This recent form could give the Vikings a further edge in this matchup.
Overall, the Vikings have been the stronger team this season, and they possess an advantage in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This should give them the edge in this game, and they should be able to cover the -13.5 point spread, according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort. The Vikings' current form, along with their advantages in offensive and defensive efficiency, make them the likely pick in this matchup.
North Texas -2.5 (-115)
North Texas Mean Green have the edge with their superior offensive and defensive efficiency as they go up against Charlotte 49ers with a spread of -2.5, according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
The North Texas Mean Green are heading into Charlotte with an impressive 23-5 record and 14-3 in Conference USA. The Mean Green are looking to extend their winning streak after Aly Khalifa scored 22 points in their 74-67 victory against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. North Texas has gone 9-3 in away games and averages 66.0 points per game, outscoring opponents by 4.2.
The Charlotte 49ers, who are 16-11 and 7-9 in Conference USA, will have a tough time competing against the Mean Green. The 49ers have gone 9-3 in home games and average 64.0 points per game, but have a lower offensive efficiency than North Texas. The Mean Green are fourth in C-USA with 9.5 offensive rebounds per game, which is led by Abou Ousmane averaging 2.8.
North Texas has a superior offensive and defensive efficiency, which gives them the edge against the 49ers. The Mean Green are scoring 67.7 points per game, while their opponents have averaged 60.2 points. Meanwhile, Charlotte averages 60.7 points per game and their opponents have averaged 63.3 points.
North Texas' offensive play is led by Tylor Perry, who is averaging 17.2 points per game and 3.2 rebounds. Kai Huntsberry is also a key player, averaging 12.4 points and 2.5 rebounds over the last 10 games. Charlotte's Brice Williams is shooting 40.4% from beyond the arc with 1.5 made 3-pointers per game, while averaging 12.1 points. Aly Khalifa is averaging 11.9 points and six rebounds over the past 10 games for Charlotte.
Given North Texas' superior offensive and defensive efficiency, it is reasonable to assume that they will have the edge against Charlotte. The Mean Green have the experience and talent to beat the spread of -2.5 and come out on top. This matchup between the Charlotte 49ers and North Texas Mean Green is sure to be a close one, so don't miss out on Thursday night.
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