5-0, clean sweep yesterday. 6 more picks today's college basketball slate from data driven predictive model.
BETS:
Marshall/James Madison o157.5 (-110) - James Madison hosts Marshall. My model makes this total in the 170s. The over has hit in 5 of Marshall's last 7 road games. These are two high tempo teams, both ranking in the top 40 in tempo. Marshall has is a top 25 team in Off Efficiency. James Madison is ranked 21st in Free Throw Rate. Marshall is going to score buckets and James Madison is going to get to the Free Throw line which will lengthen the game. I think there's going to be a lot of points in this game. I'm taking the over.
NC State -6.5 (+100) - NC State at home against Wake Forest. My model makes this NC State -13. This game is an even relatively even tempo matchup, less than 0.5 point separates them. NC State has a 1.25 point advantage in Off Efficiency and a 6 point advantage in Adj Def Efficiency. Add home court advantage for NC State. I'm laying the points with the Wolf Pack.
Boise State -5.5 (-115) - Boise State at home against New Mexico. My model makes this Boise State -13. Boise State is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 against New Mexico. New Mexico plays at a tempo of 4.25 fewer possessions per 40 minutes compared to Boise State. New Mexico has a 5 point advantage in Adj Off Efficiency which you would expect out of a slower tempo team. On the flip side, Boise State has an 8.5 point advantage in Adj Def Efficiency. I tend to lean towards the home team when it comes to which team will enforce their tempo on the game. With that being said, I would expect New Mexico to not be able to shrink the number of possessions. I'm laying the points with Boise State.
Wisconsin +1.5 (-120) - Wisconsin hosting Iowa. My model makes this Wisconsin -3. Wisconsin is 13-3 straight up in their last 16 at home against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have a 13.5 point advantage in Adj Off Eff. But they play at a slower pace than Wisconsin of 7 possessions per 40 minutes. Wisconsin has a 9.25 point advantage in Adj Def Efficiency. As mentioned above, I lean to the home team's tempo meaning Iowa will be at a faster pace and not be able to fully capitalize on that Adj Off Efficiency advantage. I'll probably sprinkle on Wisconsin moneyline. But for now, I'm taking the points with Wisconsin.
Wofford -7.5 (-115) - Wofford on the road against VMI. My model makes this Wofford -13.5. Wofford is 5-0 SU in their last 5 road games against VMI and 19-2 SU in the last 21 against VMI. Wofford has an 11 point advantage in Adj Off Efficiency and 3.75 point advantage in Adj Def Efficiency. Wofford also has a size, experience, and bench advantage. I'm laying the points with Wofford.
E Tennessee St -6.5 (-115) - ETSU at home against The Citadel. My model makes this ETSU -11.5. ETSU has a 1.5 point advantage in Adj Off Efficiency and a 4.5 point advantage in Adj Def Efficiency. ETSU has the height advantage in this matchup and have the advantage in contributions from their bench. I'm laying the points with ETSU.
*Odds according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
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