5 picks from data driven predictive model for Tuesday's college basketball's slate. Looking to bounce back after a 1-4 night last night.
PICKS:
San Diego State -10.5 (-110) - San Diego State hosts Colorado State. My model makes this close to San Diego State -16. Only a combined 1 point differential, favoring San Diego State, between the two teams in terms of Tempo and Adj Off Efficiency. The key advantage for San Diego State is Adj Def Efficiency. San Diego State ranks 19th in Adj Def Efficiency compared to 206th for Colorado State, that's a 12.75 point advantage for San Diego State. San Diego State also has the size, height, experience, and continuity advantage. I'm laying the points with San Diego State.
Utah State -4.5 (-120) - Utah State on the road against Wyoming. My model makes this Utah State -10. This line almost seems too good to be true. Utah State has a 3 point advantage in tempo, a 9 point advantage in Adj Off Efficiency, and a 6 point advantage in Adj Def Efficiency. Utah State's weakness is their continuity off the bench. In a road environment, as long as they stay out of foul trouble and don't have to get too deep into their bench, I think Utah State will cover this number.
VCU -5.5 (-105) - VCU on the road against Saint Joseph's. My model makes this VCU -9. Saint Joseph's has a 1.25 point advantage in Tempo. On the flip side, VCU has a 1 point advantage in Adj Off Efficiency and a 10 point advantage in Adj Def Efficiency. VCU has slight advantages in size and experience. VCU also has the Bench advantage. Winning on the road is hard, but I like VCU to cover this number.
Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan u152.5 (-110) - In-state matchup between W Michigan and E Michigan. My model makes this total 145.5. Here's how the two teams rank (out of 363) in terms of Adj Off Efficiency, Adj Def Efficiency, & Tempo: Adj Off Efficiency - W Michigan: 203rd, E Michigan: 222nd. Adj Def Efficiency - W Michigan: 354th, E Michigan: 348th. Tempo: W Michigan: 242nd, E Michigan: 55th. These are two bottom tier defensive teams, but the offensive efficiencies and tempos to justify this number. I am taking the under.
Arkansas -13.5 (-110) - The Hogs host the Georgia Bulldogs. My model makes this Arkansas -18. Disclaimer: I am and always will be an Arkansas fan. But this is the #4 pick in terms of model confidence from my model. Arkansas has a 1.35 point tempo advantage, a 5.75 point Adj Off Efficiency advantage, a 9.3 point Adj Def Efficiency advantage, and a 1.25 point Size advantage. Pair that with the the game being played at a top 25 venue in terms of Home Court Advantage. I know this is a big number. But I'm laying the points with the Razorbacks.
*All odds are according to BetSaracen from Saracen Casino & Resort.
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