5 picks from the data driven predictive model for 2/20/2023 College Basketball slate.
Picks:
UC Davis -8.5 (-105) - my model makes this between 12.5-13 in favor of UC Davis. UC Davis with a clear edge here: 5 point tempo edge, 6.3 point Adj Off Efficiency edge, and 5 point Adj Def Efficiency edge. I'm laying the points with UC Davis.
Duke -18.5 (-105) - my model makes this Duke -22.5. Louisville is struggling this year ranking 254 in Adj Off Efficiency and 277 in Adj Def Efficiency. 10 point Adj Off Eff and a 14.8 point Adj Def Eff edge for Duke in this game. This is a big number but I'm going to lay it with the Blue Devils at home.
UC Santa Barbara -5.5 (-115) - my model makes this close to -10 for UC Santa Barbara. Both of these teams play at a relatively the same pace. 5 point edge in Adj Off Eff for UC Santa Barbara. Fullerton has a 2.5 point Adj Def Eff advantage. UC Santa Barbara has the edge in experience and continuity, add that with being at home. I'm laying the points with UC Santa Barbara.
Texas Southern -7.5 (-105) - my model makes this between 11-11.5 for Texas Southern. Texas Southern has a 1.5 point advantage between Adj Off Eff & Adj Def Eff. Apart from this being a home game for Texas Southern, the big advantage for Texas Southern comes from size, height, experience, and continuity from their bench.
Prairie View A&M -11.5 (-115) - my model makes this Prairie View -18. Mississippi Valley St is ranked 357 out of 363 in KenPom's Adj Efficiency Margin. While Prairie View is a bottom tier offensive team, they are a respectable defensive team. I'll lay the points at home with Prairie View.
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