Lots of good action to get us started in the month of November. We've got 2 best bets for MACtion, 4 spreads & 4 player props for the NBA, and 1 NHL play. All odds are according to BetSaracen.
NCAAF
Bowling Green -4.5 (-115)
The Model makes this game Bowling Green -7.7. When comparing the two teams, Bowling Green has performed better against a tougher schedule. I'll take Bowling Green to cover.
Akron ML (-165)
The spread on this game is Akron -4. The Model makes it Akron -3.6. I agree with the Model on this game. I don't like the spread above a field goal. Akron has the much better defense in this game. Likely a low scoring ball game, I'll take the team with the better defense.
NBA
Celtics -11 (-120)
The Model makes this game Celtics -13.3. The Celtics are the more experienced team and have had a tougher schedule to start the season. Boston will be one of the better teams in the NBA this season. Boston has had some issues turning the ball over on offense, but in they have the edge in this matchup in all the other key factors. I'll lay the big number with the Celtics at home.
Hawks -8 (-115)
The Wizards stink. The average margin of victory difference in this matchup is almost 16.5. The Hawks have a significant edge in offensive and defensive efficiencies. The Model makes this game Atlanta -9.7. I think Atlanta rolls tonight.
Hornets +2.5 (-115)
Home court advantage factors in at around 2.5 points for the home team. So this matchup is basically a pick-em game. Charlotte has the more efficient offense and more efficient defense. They have the edge over Houston in eFG%, Off Reb%, & FT/FGA. The key in this matchup will be keeping Houston off the free throw line. The Hornets are allowing the highest FT/FGA in the league so far this season. If they can keep Houston off the free throw line, they will likely win outright.
Mavericks -5 (-105)
The Mavericks are playing good ball to start the season. They're winning games by an average of 9 points per game. On the other side, the Bulls are losing games by an average of 7 points per game. The Mavericks have a significant edge on offense with Kyrie and Luka. The Mavericks have an 11.7% edge in eFG%. I think the Mavericks' offense is too much for the Bulls tonight.
Jordan Poole (WSH) u2.5 3PTM (+125)
Poole has gone under this number in 8 of his last 10 games going back to last season. He's hit this mark in only 1 of 3 games this season, and that was a game in which he took 12 3PT shots.
Davion Mitchell (SAC) u4.5 Assists (+100); u16.5 PAR (-110), & u14.5 Pts+Ast (-115)
I'm picking on Davion Mitchell tonight. You'd have to go back to April of last season to find the last time Mitchell went over any of these 3 prop lines. He will see an increase in minutes tonight with De'Aaron Fox being out of the lineup. But I expect the Warriors defense to clamp down on him.
NHL
Avalanche 60-Min-Line (-150)
The Model shows a 65.18% chance of the Colorado Avalanche winning tonight against the St. Louis Blues. Colorado is the more attacking team in this matchup with significant advantages in Corsi & Fenwick analytics. Taking OT of the table to eliminate some juice. I think the Avalanche win in regulation tonight.
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