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1/20/2023 NBA Bets

Kyle Kennedy
Jan 20, 20231 min read

2 picks from profitable trend, one pick and a parlay from data driven predictive model, & 7 player props.

Trend Play:


Pythagorean +/- correlating with 1H cover:

  • DEN Nuggets 1H -7 (-110)

  • MEM Grizzlies 1H -3.5 (-110)


Model Play:


Miami -1 (-110) – this is the top-rated play in my ATS predictive model. Model confidence: 56.73%.


Parlay:


Clippers ML, Cavaliers ML, & Nuggets Halftime/Fulltime (+148).

Model confidence – Denver: 82.43%, Cleveland: 73.36%, & Clippers: 72.2%. Taking Denver to win the 1H & then win the game to eliminate the juice.


Player Props


  1. Steven Adams o20.5 Pts+Reb (-115) – over in 7 of last 10

  2. Jalen Brunson o36.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (-125) – over in 7 of last 10

  3. Myles Turner o24.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (-120) – over in 7 of last 10

  4. Jaren Jackson Jr. o15.5 Points (-130) – over in 7 of last 10

  5. Ja Morant o35.5 Pts+Ast (-120) – over in 7 of last 10

  6. Wendell Carter Jr. u27.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (-120) – under in 8 of last 10

  7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander u41.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (-125) – under in 8 of last 10

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